New poll: National and Labour are neck and neck with Opportunity decisive

The last 1News-Verian poll of the campaign has National just slightly ahead of Labour, with Act and NZ First both slipping, leaving neither side able to govern without Opportunity or a significant overhang, Henry Oliver writes in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.

National is up one point to 30% and Labour up two to 29% in the final 1News-Verian poll, 1News reported yesterday. The Greens rose one to 16%. Act and NZ First each fell two, to 10% and 8%, cutting the right bloc from 61 seats last week to 58, three short of a majority in a 121-seat Parliament (in the event that Te Pāti Māori fell to one seat).

The left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 56 or 60 seats depending on the Māori electorates, also short. Opportunity is steady on 6%, worth seven MPs, leaving both sides needing its support.

On an alternate scenario, where Te Pāti Māori holds four seats and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi keeps Te Tai Tokerau, parliament grows to 125 and 63 seats are needed. Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Kapa-Kingi would hold 60; with Opportunity's seven, that reaches 67, four more than required. Even if Te Pāti Māori falls to one seat, the left’s 56 plus Opportunity’s seven reaches 63 in a 121-seat Parliament – two more than needed.

So, party vote to one decimal place: National 29.5%, Labour 28.8%, Greens 16.4%, ACT 10.0%, NZ First 8.4%, Opportunity 6.2%, Te Pāti Māori 0.4%.

The overhang wildcard

The Herald’s Thomas Coughlan notes the poll would give National 36 seats, less than the 44 electorates it won three years ago. Any electorates won beyond its entitlement become overhang seats, growing Parliament. In the 121-seat scenario, National would need roughly five or six extra seats to close off Labour’s route to power with Opportunity.

The leaders respond

Luxon stuck to his script, telling 1News “the only poll that matters” is Saturday. “We’re going to work really hard up until midnight Friday... Stick with the plan. Don't leave it half done.” Pressed repeatedly, he gave near-identical answers.

Hipkins said Labour had “developed some real momentum” and was “feeling increasingly optimistic, but there's still a lot of work to do.” Asked whether Te Pāti Māori had come far enough to work with, he said: “We haven’t really had many conversations with them.”

Qiulae Wong said more support would give Opportunity “more leverage around the table and more ability to bring stability to the next term of government,” and that the party would speak to whoever had the most seats first – possibly after special votes (so prepare for a long wait for a conclusion).

Seymour said it would be “a very tight election” and “every party vote for Act will count.” Peters called the poll “trash” and “humbug research”: “Your numbers are of no value to anyone. I’m not wasting my time talking about them.” 

Can we trust the polls?

On The Spinoff's At Large, Research Association of New Zealand spokesperson Murray Campbell told Toby Manhire the divergence between simultaneous polls is mostly “margin of error” – one survey plumbing the lower end of a party’s range, another the upper. Reid uses an online panel; Verian is half panel, half phone, which Campbell said “gives a broader spectrum of chance for voters to be interviewed.” Weighting, he said, is “both a science and an art.”

He was critical of media coverage of the polls (hi, Murray), saying: “I think the media needs to look at itself in the mirror ... about the words it uses to describe a two- or three-point shift” — citing “crash,” “tumble,” “some sort of melodramatic adjective”. Much of it, he said, "is just within the margin of error.”

Hipkins, speaking on RNZ’s Morning Report, said “the media have lost their mind in their absolute obsession with polling at the moment.” Hi, Chris.