Live election updates: Poll has Labour up with one day to go

Cor. Ryan Bridge wasn't playing this morning. His opening line to National's Paul Goldsmith and Labour's Willie Jackson on his Herald show today was: "Joining us this morning for potentially their final time on our Friday political showdown". Goldsmith, who is sixth on National's list and likely needs to wrestle Epsom off David Seymour to retain a seat in parliament, responded, "Do you think Willie's going to come a cropper?" Jackson, who is in a far better position, fourth on Labour's list, clapped back, "Where are you on the list?" They both ended up laughing, which is something, considering how high the tension is one day out from such a tight election.

The ribbing continued with Jackson accusing Bridge of conducting a biased interview earlier in the morning with Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong. "Oh, shut up, Willie," Bridge responded.

There's a real Christmas Eve vibe happening today and everyone is getting loose.

Things got more serious later in the piece though. Bridge put to Goldsmith that if Opportunity made it into parliament (Christopher Luxon has ruled out negotiating with the party), National would need to roll Luxon. Goldsmith's response? "That's getting into the fantasy realm, and I'm very confident the coalition three parties will be able to form a government".

Bridge pushed Goldsmith as to whether Erica Stanford would be the party's next leader and got nowhere, but it's hardly the type of talk a party leader wants happening one day before the polls close.

Jackson refused to acknowledge what the polls are indicating: that Labour has a better chance of leading the next government if Opportunity makes it over the 5% threshold. "No, we're getting stronger by the day," Jackson said. Of course, there ain't no more days left to build strength.

Things aren’t going that well for Chris Luxon. Today’s The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll has his party down 1.2% to 26.4% with the potential of being turfed out of government. The lead story on the Herald’s website is about the possibility of him being rolled immediately after the election. Stuff’s political editor Jenna Lynch’s final pre-election analysis is entirely focused on the certainty that National will be enduring some form of loss – of power, MPs or just general hope.

So Luxon is doing what any self-respecting New Zealander would do in the circumstances. The only thing he really can do. He’s going to Morrinsville and he is going to prostrate himself before the only true deity we have in this milk-loving piece of shit dumbass mean spirited sale at briscoes racist sexist 40% off deck furniture piss country, the huge fibreglass Morrinsville Megacow. 

Our prime minister will be visiting the cow, which The Spinoff has previously referred to as “the nation’s id in a single object”, at 10.45am. The media has not been provided a full itinerary but it can only be assumed that the visit will include an offering of gifts such as Lewis Rd Creamery milk, incense or myrrh, a confession of electoral sins and then the plea for delivery from political despair.

The Spinoff's Morrinsville correspondent Josh Drummond will be reporting live from the scene. We will be providing new information as it comes to hand.

Good morning and welcome to the final day of the election campaign.

The last poll is out and it's good news for Labour. The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll has Labour up 2 points since the previous survey in October, putting it on 30.7%. National has gone the other way, down 1.2 points and is now on 26.4%.

Opportunity's future is on a knife edge, with the party on 5.1%, just enough to just get it into parliament, but taking into account the margin of error, it looks like a terrifying nail-biter for the party.

The poll has the Greens on 13.0% (down 1.2 points), NZ First on 12.0% (up 0.2). Act on 9.8% (up 0.8) and Te Pāti Māori on 2.0% (up 0.1).

The Spinoff's resident political data journalist, Toby Manhire, has been looking at the last four polls. You can peruse his poll comparisons and key takeaways here.