Chris v Chris: Hipkins takes the win while both struggle to win over voters

The consensus in the media is that Chris Hipkins narrowly won the first leaders’ debate while two new polls show both major parties struggling to win over voters, writes Henry Oliver in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.

Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins met on the TVNZ stage for the first major leaders’ debate of this campaign. It was the sequel not many had asked for – the same two Chrises, three years on, now with the roles of prime minister and challenger swapped. But, while those on stage looked all too familiar, the context of their meeting last night had changed considerably.

Two polls released the same day set the scene. RNZ-Reid Research put National at 25.9%, down 3.2 points since August and its weakest result since 2020. Labour fell 1.4 points to 30.8% – its third consecutive decline. Combined, the two majors now attract just 56.7%, down from 61.3% in August and 64.9% at the 2023 election. On those numbers, neither the existing coalition nor a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc would have a majority in a 120-seat Parliament. Opportunity's seven projected MPs could lift either bloc over the line.

The 1News-Verian poll told a similar story: National up one to 29%, Labour steady on 28%, the Greens at 16% and Opportunity at 7%. Both blocs sat on 58 seats in a 124-seat Parliament, with Opportunity's eight seats the decider. 

The mood is gloomy for the incumbent and his challenger. RNZ-Reid found 53.1% think the country is heading in the wrong direction, and Luxon’s net performance rating of negative 23.7 is his worst as leader. Hipkins’ net rating is also negative, at 3.6.

Hipkins wins on points

The Post’s Henry Cooke thought there was no devastating moment that will go on to haunt either leader, but Hipkins had more sections he clearly won. He was strongest early, on cost of living and the economy – probably the most-watched section. Asked what he could do immediately, he pointed to a $4/hour pay rise for care workers from January 1. Luxon countered that it wasn't funded; Labour has set aside $2.5bn, though questions remain about the remaining pay equity settlements.

Health was also Labour territory. Tame refused to accept Luxon’s “2100 new nurses” figure – which counts hires made weeks before the last election – freeing Hipkins to repeat the attack that only 54 permanent full-time nurses were hired between March 2024 and March 2026.

His strongest moment came near the end, when he looked down the camera and said he would have fired Winston Peters and Shane Jones over their “racist” comments about Indian and Chinese New Zealanders. Luxon tried to counter with past Labour misbehaviour, but the ministers he named had actually been removed from Hipkins’ Cabinet. It was Hipkins at his strongest.

Luxon’s stronger ground

Luxon did much better in education and crime. Cooke writes that he called Hipkins the “worst education minister in New Zealand” and was ready when Hipkins promised to drop the mandated hour of reading, writing and maths. In the room, Luxon looked like the reasonable reformer. On crime, Hipkins conceded his last government took too long on youth offending and half-heartedly endorsed the gang patch ban.

Luxon's riskiest choice came when he agreed with Hipkins that the tax system was unfair, then promised no taxes or levies would change it under his government – despite National planning to raise fuel taxes.

The Herald’s panel reveal their scorecards

The Herald’s Thomas Coughlan called it “one of Luxon’s best debate performances” – “nimble”, lots of points made – “but he still lost.” He noted Hipkins had a home-side advantage: voters feel pessimistic, and it’s easier not to be the incumbent. Luxon also tripped up by celebrating falling interest rates when they’re heading up, and failed to really deliver a memorable attack on Labour's fiscal plan, an area where, according to Coughlan, “Labour really does have questions to answer.” (Separately, Coughlan wrote that National is “currently losing this election, and Tuesday’s debate will do little to arrest its decline.”)

Audrey Young was more decisive: Hipkins “was the stronger performer by far.” She found him more direct, more specific on cost-of-living policies, and crisper in delivery. His recollection of national unity after the March 15 attacks was “a moment that almost brought a lump to the throat.” She thought Luxon was strongest on education and immigration.

Shayne Currie called it a tight contest: Hipkins had the better opening half; Luxon “grew into the debate and finished much more strongly.” Currie found Luxon too often rehearsed rather than authentic. Both were “underwhelming on health,” turning a question about a patient who died in a Waikato ED toilet into talking points rather than empathy.

Adam Pearse also gave it to Hipkins, “but not by as great a margin as TVNZ’s undecided voters might suggest.” He noted Hipkins’ classic opposition tactic – asking, like Regan had 46 years ago, whether viewers felt better off than three years ago – carried an obvious answer. Luxon was at his most confident on crime and education. Hipkins “failed to clearly articulate his position on co-governance.”

In the studio

The Herald’s Jamie Ensor, watching from inside, noted both leaders arrived relaxed. Hipkins waited in the corridor reading safety signs to pass the time; Luxon arrived with his entourage, and the pair chatted quietly and chuckled together before taking stage.

Both delivered pre-written opening statements from autocue. Luxon used “no new taxes” far less than expected – Toby Manhire, writing on The Spinoff today, called it a smart play – while leaning hard on “you can’t fund it”, which Hipkins parried by noting National hasn’t published its fiscal plan. (You can also relive Alice Neville’s as-it-happened live-blog here in case you missed it.)

Manhire found the night’s funniest exchange in a callback: when Hipkins accused John Key of breaking a GST promise, Luxon shot back, “You're not debating John Key.” 

Hipkins: “You’re definitely not John Key.” 

Luxon: “You’re no Helen Clark.”

The line got a laugh, Manhire writes, but carried “a nugget of melancholy” – this is not Key, not Clark, and both leaders know it.

The undecided voters in the TVNZ atrium scored it 49% Hipkins, 24% Luxon, with 27% unable to decide. Manhire calls that “about right”.