How National gave the final strait of the election to Winston Peters.

The final polls all send the same message: Labour loses and National wins. But the form of National win is very different to the scenario that looked likely in the first half of the campaign. Today, Christopher Luxon, who coined the term “coalition of chaos”, is staring down the barrel of a three-part government, with both David Seymour’s Act and Winston Peters’ NZ First as his outriggers.

Speaking of marine metaphors: Remember that archetypal National ad with the sleek blue rowing boat set against the motley dinghy of Labour, the Greens and NZ First? Reimagined for 2023, it would have the blue captain denying he could see a frightening smudge approaching from the depths, reluctantly welcoming the giant squid aboard, then declaring it a vampire kraken, going at it with a harpoon, screaming that it is about to sink the boat while urging people on board.

In a new episode of Gone By Lunchtime – the last before the polling day – Annabelle Lee-Mather, Ben Thomas and Toby Manhire ask how we ended up with panic at the Briscoes. As for Labour, they might have inched back up, but is it enough to give them even a distant hope?

Plus: some final thoughts on Act, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and the campaign of 2023 as a whole.

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