The ‘looming disaster’ with two weeks to go till voting starts

One group faces disproportinately disappearing from the electoral system.

On October 25, the door slams shut on enrolments for the 2026 election. And with a fortnight to go to that deadline, one age group is substantially under-represtented. More than a third of 18- to 24-year-olds who are eligible to vote are not currently registered, according to the latest figures from the Electoral Commission. 

“It could be a bit of a looming disaster,” said electoral law expert Andrew Geddis, speaking to the Spinoff for an episode of At Large with Toby Manhire.

“Even if we get it up to 75% of people 18 to 24, that is still going to be about 20% below the enrolment rate of all the other age cohorts,” he said. “And so, if you only have 75% of people aged 18 to 24 enrolled by October the 25th, that means a quarter of young people in New Zealand will not legally be able to vote. They will disappear out of our electoral system. They'll disappear out of choosing the next government.”

The challenge has been amplified by a controversial change in the electoral rules, passed into law last year, that removes the option to enrol within the voting period.

“The rules around advance voting itself haven't changed,” said Geddis. “You can still, on any day in the 12 days before the election, go into an advance polling place, ask for a ballot, and you'll be given it and vote. You don't have to have a reason for voting early. You don't have to explain why you're doing it.”

He continued: “The one thing that has changed – and this is the critical thing we just really need to be aware of – is if you haven't registered to vote before the advance voting period starts, that is, by 25th of October, you are not legally entitled to vote.”

In recent elections, it was possible to enrol and vote at the same time across the advance voting period and, in 2020 and 2023, even on election day itself. “This year, that will not happen.”

In New Zealand, enrolment is a legal requirement for those 18 and over.

And what of the overhang strategy currently being promoted by Te Pati Māori on the left and by a consortium of supporters on the right? 

“It's legal,” said Geddis. “There's nothing in electoral law to say you can't do this … From a more general, ethical, political, moral point of view, the legitimacy of what has happened will no doubt be highly contested.” There would inevitably be complaints, he said, such as “this has been a stitch up. This has been an illegitimate gaming of the system. This doesn't properly represent the will of New Zealanders.”

Such an outcome could “cause real legitimacy questions about the resulting government, even if it doesn't call into question the lawful basis for it to be able to govern”, he said. “The problem with doing anything about it, of course, would be that all of our electoral law is legislation. It's acts of parliament, and they get made by majorities in the house, so we might be very upset and unhappy with what happened, but to change the rules to stop it happening again would require the elected majority to agree to change the result.”

Among the other questions fielded by Geddis, a professor in the Faculty of Law at the University of Otago:

• What does “splitting your vote” mean and when should someone think about doing it?
• How does the “overhang” work? 
• What’s the deal with large anonymous donations?
• Should we move to a fairer voting system within electorates?
• What happens if there is a dead heat in the seats won by each bloc and neither can achieve a majority in parliament?
• What happens if a party doesn’t have enough names on its list to fill the seats it’s entitled to?
• How do you vote if you’re bed-bound?
• How do you vote if you turn 18 after enrolment closes on October 25?
• Would Andrew be known as “Geddo” if he had a similar profile in Australia?