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Jacinda Ardern is on track to return to the 9th floor. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Jacinda Ardern is on track to return to the 9th floor. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

PoliticsOctober 17, 2020

It’s early, but we’re calling it: Jacinda Ardern will lead the next government

Editor-at-large
Jacinda Ardern is on track to return to the 9th floor. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Jacinda Ardern is on track to return to the 9th floor. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

As of 7.20pm, Labour is on track for twice as many seats as National.

Any hopes of a nail-biter election have dissipated just a few minutes after polls closed – at least as far as the biggest party of the next government is concerned.

As of 7.20pm, with 4.2% of the vote counted, Labour is out in the lead on 50.7%. National is on 25.8%, the Greens 8.6%, Act 7.5%, and NZ First 2.2%.

Those numbers – with the heavy caveat that it’s just 4.2% – would see the seats in parliament break down like this:

Labour: 66
National: 33
Greens: 11
Act: 10

These numbers suggest the polling of recent weeks may, if anything, have been generous to National, which has had, to put it mildly, a bad year. Three leaders, a miscalculation in costings and caucus leaks have left Judith Collins facing the most uphill of tasks. A result of this order would be National’s worst since 2002, when Bill English’s party managed only 20.9%.

Were Labour to hold on to a number like this, it would be the highest result for any party since MMP was introduced in 1996.

While it can be stated with a high degree of confidence that Jacinda Ardern will return as prime minister, it is too soon to know the composition of the government she will lead. A total party vote of around 47% or higher is likely to give Labour the option of governing alone, making it the first party to do so under MMP.

Anything less is likely to see Labour fall short of a 61-seat parliamentary majority, setting the stage for negotiations with the Greens, who so far will be celebrating a dream run in the last fortnight. Even were Labour to make 61 or more seats it might still seek a governing arrangement with the Greens as partners.

For more on the possible configurations see here.

The early results that have begun to flow in were cast before today – the advance turnout was expected to be big, but it outnumbered the Electoral Commission’s prediction of a 60% advance vote. Close to two million votes were cast by the end of yesterday, amounting to 75% of the total turnout from 2017.

More Reading

    In 2017, the results at 3% counted matched the final results pretty closely.

    Advance vote counting began today at 9am.

    The Māori Party’s hopes of returning to parliament hinge on an electorate victory – the party has put the focus on candidates rather than a party vote and has no chance of making the 5% threshold.

    Keep going!
    Town Hall, Auckland
    Town Hall, Auckland

    PoliticsOctober 17, 2020

    Election 2020: Where the parties are going to party tonight

    Contributing writer
    Town Hall, Auckland
    Town Hall, Auckland

    The focus is Auckland as the party faithful gather to celebrate or drown their sorrows.

    Most of the country’s political leadership is in the supercity tonight to watch the results roll in and see who is headed back to parliament. The parties, while smaller than in previous years, will be an unforgettable sight of cheering and chanting in the midst of Covid-19.

    Hundreds of smaller parties will be held across the country as candidates of all affiliations watch with friends, family and the curious to see what the voters have decided.

    Labour

    Auckland Town Hall is once again the home of the Labour Party tonight. The site of some of Jacinda Ardern’s biggest victories, forever etched with scenes from 2017’s Jacindamania, the town hall will speak to Labour’s promise of stability. What’s more stable than a stately old civic building in the centre of Auckland?

    After months of lockdowns and the demands of Wellington, the Ardern-Gayford home hasn’t seen much attention in the last while, but Ardern will be awaiting results at her home in Sandringham.

    National

    The SkyCity convention centre served as the backdrop for Bill English and National in 2017. The party won the most seats that night and blue balloons were tossed around the crowd, but the party eventually headed to the opposition benches. Judith Collins has settled for the much smaller Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron tonight.

    The waterfront venue might fit fewer supporters, but it features royal patronage and a great view of the harbour. National might hope to get some good luck from the America’s Cup, which currently lives in the building.

    Collins will be waiting for the results at the SkyCity Grand Hotel. Some five-star luxury to see whether the polls are wrong and National can make it back to the prime minister’s office.

    Greens

    The Greens co-leaders are in central Auckland at the GridAkl in the Wynyard Quarter, just a short swim across a bay from National. An electorate win in either Auckland Central or Tāmaki Makaurau could ensure beyond doubt the Green Party makes it back to parliament, but the party’s top brass will be watching the popular vote in the chic co-working space.

    A few hundred Green Party supporters will be there, with an ocean of green-hued clothing and props as the party looks to see whether it could enter government for the first time in its history.

    Act

    Act might return the best result in the party’s history from a venue called Headquarters on the Viaduct that claims to be “the best site in Auckland”. It isn’t the party’s headquarters, which could lead to some limited confusion.

    The association of consumers and taxpayers will be gathered at a venue with a menu resplendent with aged-cuts of meat. Unlike certain other parties, there won’t be any free tofu or kombucha on offer here.

    NZ First

    Winston Peters’ political career will either come to an end of he’ll confound all critics in the welcoming embrace of Russell. Once again, he’ll be at the Duke of Marlborough Hotel. It’s a classic venue and a fortress of the north with very a solid 4.4 out of 5 rating on Google. Apparently you should “ask for Harry” according to reviews. I have no idea why, but he might be able to pour Winston a good single malt later in the evening.

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