RNZ-Reid Research poll: National below disastrous 2020 result as Opportunity surges

The National Party has dropped below 25 percent in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, while Opportunity has reached a new high and could decide the next government.

This story was originally published on RNZ

National has dismissed the result as "out of step" with other polls, just nine days before voting closes.

Christopher Luxon's party is on 24.8 percent, down 1.1 percentage points since the last RNZ poll three weeks ago. That puts National below its disastrous 2020 election showing, though still above its historic low in 2002.

Labour remains the most popular party on 30.6 percent, down 0.2 points, while Opportunity records the biggest gain, rising 1.7 points to 7.2 percent.

The result differs sharply from the 1News-Verian poll released on Tuesday, which put National ahead on 29 percent and Labour on 27 percent. It also showed Opportunity slipping one point to 6 percent.

The two surveys were conducted over almost identical periods, with Reid Research surveying voters from 20 to 26 October and Verian from 21 to 25 October.

Both canvassed 1000 eligible voters, though Reid Research used online panels, while Verian split its interviews evenly between phone and online.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll puts the Greens on 14.5 percent, down 0.3 points.

ACT has overtaken New Zealand First, rising 1.1 points to 10.1 percent, its strongest result in this poll since the 2023 election. New Zealand First is down 0.7 points to 9.9 percent.

Te Pāti Māori has slipped 0.1 points to 1.9 percent, leaving it entirely dependent on winning electorate seats to return to Parliament.

Just 3.3 percent of respondents said they were undecided or would not vote, down from 5.6 percent last poll.

On these numbers, Labour and the Greens could form a government with Opportunity's support, without needing Te Pāti Māori.

The poll projects 37 MPs for Labour, 18 for the Greens and nine for Opportunity, giving them 64 seats in a 120-seat Parliament.

The current coalition would win just 54 seats, with 30 going to National and 12 each to ACT and NZ First.

Opportunity's nine MPs could give them a majority too, although Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with the party.

Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong has promised to negotiate first with whichever party wins the most seats, giving Labour the first chance on these projections.

The seat calculations assume Te Pāti Māori wins one or two electorates, giving it two MPs. Further electorate victories would expand the size of Parliament.

National could also cause an overhang if it wins more electorates than its projected 30 seats. Either scenario could change the numbers required to cobble together a majority.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has strengthened his personal ratings, even as his party's support remains largely unchanged.

He remains the preferred prime minister on 23.3 percent, up 1.4 points, while Luxon is unchanged on 17.1 percent.

Another 12.7 percent of respondents selected no preferred prime minister or said they did not know.

Hipkins' performance rating has also turned positive, with 39.7 percent saying he is doing well as opposition leader, compared with 34.7 percent who say he is doing poorly.

Luxon's assessment remains firmly negative: 53.8 percent say he is performing poorly as prime minister, compared with 30.1 percent who say he is doing well.

About half of respondents, 50.5 percent, believe New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction under the current government, while 30.5 percent believe it is heading in the right direction.

Another 17.4 percent say neither right nor wrong, while 1.6 percent do not know.

'Real momentum' or 'outlier'?

Speaking to RNZ, National's campaign chair Simeon Brown acknowledged the election would be "very close" but cast doubt on the poll's accuracy.

"Ultimately, it's out of step with most of the other polls that we're seeing, including our own," he said.

Brown rejected suggestions that National had fumbled its campaign strategy, either by ruling out Opportunity or focusing heavily on gangs.

"No, it's a very clear message," Brown said. "If you want a National-led government with no new taxes to grow our economy and to stop Labour and [Greens' co-leader] Chlöe Swarbrick putting a wrecking ball through the New Zealand economy, you have to party vote National."

ACT leader David Seymour also described some of the poll's movements as an "outlier", though he said he was "grateful" to those giving ACT their support.

"Look, I try not to be the rooster taking credit for the sunrise," he said. "It's important not to try measuring up the curtains before you've looked out the window, where you'll see that people are just starting to vote and make up their mind."

Hipkins said the result reflected the "real momentum" from the public for change: "They've seen three years of this government. They don't want to see three more."

Swarbrick said the polls suggested New Zealanders were sick and tired of National's "childish" attack politics.

She said political parties had an opportunity to present a vision for the country, but the government had instead chosen to spend more time attacking the opposition and her personally.

Wong told RNZ she was encouraged by Opportunity's jump in support but cautioned that "nothing is guaranteed".

"We're just going to keep working hard right up until election day," she said. "We still need every vote that we can get. We are making history here."

Both NZ First and Te Pāti Māori declined requests for interviews.

Reid Research surveyed 1000 eligible voters online from 20-26 October 2026, using quota sampling and weighting by age, gender and geography. The poll had a reported maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Party-vote figures excluded the 1.9 percent who were undecided or did not know and the 1.4 percent who said they would not vote.