A definitive guide to the rule-outs of Election 2026

With eight days to go, here’s where every party stands on who they will – and won’t – work with after November 7.

In an MMP era, we’ve become used to the talk of coalition partners and policy negotiations. Sometimes it’s pretty straightforward – there are two pre-determined blocs, one dominated by National, the other by Labour, fighting it out to get to at least 61 seats. But elections are usually messier and more complicated than that, particularly when there are parties that could potentially work with either bloc. 

In 2002, United Future won eight seats and helped Helen Clark’s Labour form a government via a confidence and supply agreement. One of the reasons Labour needed United Future’s support was that it had already ruled out working with one of the other “centrist” parties willing to swing either way – NZ First. So as much as strategic alignment with potential coalition parties can open up pathways to government, so can the ruling out of others shut them down. 

Not that ruling out is all bad. Parties rule out working with other parties not just as a way to reduce their options post-election, but to, hopefully, bolster support. A party may issue a rule-out as a sign of strength (we don’t want that party’s support because we don’t think we’ll need it) or as a way to attract the vote of those who may think voting for another party will, essentially, be a vote for a government led by the bigger party (ie don’t risk your vote on that party thinking that it’s a vote for a government led by us). 

In this election, the previously “centrist” “kingmaker” party, NZ First, has chosen to definitively plant its flag on the National side of the divide and, with Opportunity regularly polling above 5%, we are potentially welcoming a new party into the mix. So, now only eight days away from the big day, it's worth refreshing our memories about who has ruled out whom.

Opportunity → NZ First (maybe, kind of)

Earlier this week, Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong said ruling out New Zealand First had become a “serious consideration” after Winston Peters defended an NZ First ad blaming the HMNZS Manawanui sinking on “woke bullshit” DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion). 

Wong said Opportunity would still talk to the largest party first, but if NZ First were part of that potential government, Opportunity would have to “really take into account very seriously” whether it could work with them. So not a formal, hardline rule-out, but close. 

What is more certain, though, is that since August, Opportunity has ruled out supporting any government with Peters as foreign minister, calling it a “bottom line” after Peters told Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan to “go back to your own country”.

NZ First → Opportunity

Peters responded on X that NZ First had “long ago ruled out working with this bunch of pinko communists”, a repeat of the line he yelled out to journalists after deputy leader Shane Jones had less definitively suggested NZ First had not ruled anyone in or out. 

While busy ruling out Opportunity, Winston Peters went further than ruling in National by actively endorsing Chris Bishop in Bishop’s Hutt South race while emphasising that it was not an endorsement of the National Party.

National → Opportunity

Christopher Luxon has repeatedly confirmed and reconfirmed that National had ruled out Opportunity, telling supporters, “we have ruled them out … in the same way I ruled out Te Pāti Māori, the Greens and Labour”. This was reinforced by campaign chair Simeon Brown after Luxon briefly appeared to leave the door open, with Brown saying National was “not doing a deal with the Opportunity Party”.

Labour → NZ First

In August, Chris Hipkins declared that Labour would not work with NZ First due to “overt racism” from Winston Peters and Shane Jones. Hipkins said the caucus decision was unanimous.

Labour → Act

Labour campaign chair Kieran McAnulty told Jack Tame on Q+A in June that Labour would not work with Act.

National → Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori

At the election-date announcement, Luxon said National would not work with Labour (“they created this mess”), the Greens (“radical left-wing agenda”) or Te Pāti Māori (“separatist agenda”). He described the three rule-outs as “pretty self-evident”.

Labour → National

Labour has never entertained a grand coalition with National.

NZ First → Labour

NZ First has repeatedly ruled out working with Labour, with Peters saying “nothing has changed” since his 2022 promise.

Act → Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori

David Seymour made “lock Labour out” the focus of Act's campaign launch, including the Greens and Te Pāti Māori in the same no-go group.

Greens → National, Act, NZ First (kind of)

While the Green Party has not officially ruled out working with any parties, at the 1News minor party debate, Chlöe Swarbrick said, “I think it’s clear that the Green Party want to change the government. We are not interested in reinstalling Christopher Luxon as prime minister.”

So, if you’re heading into the polling booth, unsure of who’s in and who’s out, here’s a little table for quick reference.