The Kaupapa Māori debate and the numbers behind it

Seven parties met on TVNZ last night to argue over te tiriti, gangs, te reo and the price of groceries, Henry Oliver writes in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.

Last night’s Kaupapa Māori Debate on TVNZ, co-hosted by Scotty Morrison and Te Aniwa Hurihanganui, brought the seven main parties together to argue over Te Tiriti o Waitangi, gangs, te reo Māori and the cost of groceries. On stage were the Greens’ Marama Davidson, NZ First’s Shane Jones, Te Pāti Māori’s Rawiri Waititi, Act’s Nicole McKee, National’s Tama Potaka, Labour’s Willie Jackson and Opportunity’s Eden Skipper.

The Spinoff’s Lyric Waiwiri-Smith writes it was meant to keep “the whānau group chat going,” but ended up like “that point in the night at the shed party when the celebrations go from happy to hōhā” – an evening dominated by what she calls the “old guards of Māori politics,” with “way too many mātua at this hui.” (To read a full recap of the debate as it happened, see Liam Rātana’s liveblog here.)

Te tiriti opened proceedings, with Jones defending his party’s plan to abolish the Waitangi Tribunal. Politics was “dynamic,” he said, as reported by RNZ, and 50 years on “it’s not an institution that should remain away from the pressures and the democratic process.” Jackson called the Government “the most anti-Māori government of my lifetime.”

Gangs followed. Waititi said they had been “politically manufactured” – “the product of state abuse of our people, church abuse of our people, through the 70s and the 80s,” according to 1News. Gesturing to the panel, he said: “All of these people have whānau in gangs.” Jackson rejected claims Labour supports gangs, pointing to billboards linking the left bloc to them: “We do not support gangs... but we will always support whānau.”

On groceries, Davidson backed breaking up the duopoly plus a publicly owned supermarket. “We don’t support a Pak’n’Soviet,” McKee said, arguing instead for cutting the cost of establishing new stores. Jones claimed that he was there first – “In 2014, there was only one politician who stood up and took on Countdown.”

On health, McKee was challenged over Act’s “need not race” position, given New Zealand Medical Journal research finding ethnicity remains an independent predictor of preventable death after adjusting for age, deprivation and income. Davidson, a breast cancer survivor, said the policy was “absolutely” racist: “It is ethnicity, Nicole, it is ethnicity that we need to base the funding for our services on.” McKee said division came from “saying that one lot needs something over someone else.”

On te reo, McKee said learning should be a choice and picked "dedicated" when asked for a Māori word to describe ACT. Jones defended making English official, citing migration. Potaka rejected claims the Government had removed te reo, pointing to Te Matatini and Māori broadcasting. Waititi called for compulsion with care: "We won't strap you into it... we won't do what you did to our ancestors.”

So… how’d they do?

Waiwiri-Smith singles out Davidson as a stand-out, who “floated like a butterfly and stung like a bee,” and McKee, who “held her own in an arena where she was always destined to be the loser” – though her admission she cannot name an ancestor who signed the treaty “will resonate with many urban Māori.” Skipper, she writes, was a “newbie among giants,” and his refusal to raise his hand when asked whether the health system is racist “will raise eyebrows.” Jones “huffed and puffed” at Skipper’s ten-year health plan challenge, berating him in te reo for questioning a matua. But “among the uncs, there was one who came out looking better than ever: Scotty Morrison.”

The polls behind it

The latest Whakaata Māori–Curia poll puts Labour on 34% among Māori voters, the Greens on 18%, NZ First 9%, Te Pāti Māori 8%, National 7%, Opportunity 4% and Act 3%, Te Ao Māori News reports. 

RNZ notes the seven Māori seats matter even more than usual this year given the role overhangs may play. Te Tai Tokerau is “too close to call”: the Greens’ Huhana Lyndon leads, but with 22% undecided, Labour's Willow-Jean Prime sits on 18% and could come through the middle. 

Tāmaki Makaurau became especially consequential after Labour’s Kerrin Leoni attended an event advertised as a Mongrel Mob fundraiser and resigned on October 23. A poll before her departure had Te Pāti Māori’s Oriini Kaipara on 33%, Leoni on 31% and the Greens’ Florence Te Ōhaere on 21%. Leoni remains on the ballot as an independent – and because voting papers are printed, a win would by law make her a Labour MP, though she would sit as an independent.