A patient with coronavirus in an isolation ward at a hospital in China, 28 January 2020 (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)
A patient with coronavirus in an isolation ward at a hospital in China, 28 January 2020 (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)

ScienceFebruary 11, 2020

How does the Wuhan coronavirus make you so sick?

A patient with coronavirus in an isolation ward at a hospital in China, 28 January 2020 (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)
A patient with coronavirus in an isolation ward at a hospital in China, 28 January 2020 (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)

We know that coronavirus is dangerous, but what does it actually do to your body? Epidemiologist Allen Cheng explains.

We usually think of viral respiratory infections, like the common cold, as mild nuisances that pass in a few days. But the Wuhan coronavirus has proven to be different. Of those infected, around 2% are reported to have died but the true mortality is unknown.

There’s much we’re yet to learn about this new virus, but we know it often causes pneumonia, an infection of the lungs which produces pus and fluid and reduces the lungs’ ability to absorb oxygen.

Of the first 99 people with severe infection, three-quarters had pneumonia involving both lungs. Around 14% appeared to have lung damage caused by the immune system, while 11% suffered from multi-organ system failure, or sepsis.

Others are at risk of complications from being treated in hospitals, such as acquiring other infections.

At this stage, we know some people develop only a mild infection, while others become critically ill, but the exact proportion of each is not yet clear.

Overall, there are four key ways the Wuhan coronavirus can cause severe disease – and some can occur at the same time.

1. Direct viral damage

For the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) coronavirus, direct viral damage was probably the most common way the infection caused disease. This is likely the case with the Wuhan coronavirus.

Early studies have found the Wuhan coronavirus attaches to a particular receptor found in lung tissue. This is like a lock and key mechanism allowing the virus to enter the cell, and is the same receptor the SARS coronavirus used.

Viruses “hijack” the host cell’s mechanisms to make more copies of itself. Damage results from either viruses taking over the cell completely and causing it to die, or immune cells recognising the viral infection and mounting a defence, triggering cell death.

If large numbers of cells die, then the affected organ can’t function effectively.

Studies from patients who died from SARS coronavirus showed the virus caused damage to not only the lungs, but also other organs in the body. Early research suggests the Wuhan coronavirus can also damage other organs, including the kidneys.

2. Pneumonia

While we’re still piecing together the relationship between the Wuhan coronavirus and pneumonia, there’s much we can learn from influenza.

Influenza is a virus but it commonly leads to bacterial pneumonia – this is what’s known as a secondary infection.

It’s thought the influenza virus weakens the usual protective mechanisms of the lung, allowing bacteria to establish and multiply. This is especially true in children, older people and those with compromised immune systems.

Secondary bacterial pneumonia is more severe than influenza alone – in hospitalised patients, around 10% of those with influenza and pneumonia die, compared to around 2% of those who don’t have pneumonia.

The Wuhan coronavirus appears to cause pneumonia in two ways: when the virus takes hold in the lungs, and through secondary bacterial infections, however, the first way appears to be more common.

3. Sepsis

Sepsis is a serious condition that can be caused by many infections.

When we get an infection, we need to mount an immune response to fight off the pathogen. But an excessive immune response can cause damage and organ failure. This is what happens in the case of sepsis.

Although it can be difficult to determine whether organ damage from the Wuhan coronavirus is a result of direct viral infection or indirect “collateral damage” from the immune system, initial reports suggested around 11% of people severely ill with the Wuhan coronavirus experienced sepsis with multi-organ failure.

So far no drugs or interventions have been able to dampen this immune response. Although several treatments have been proposed for Wuhan coronavirus, none have yet been shown to work.

4. Complications of hospital care

Finally, patients who require hospital care may have complications. These include infections from intravenous lines (for drips/medication) or urinary catheters (flexible tubes inserted into the bladder to empty it of urine), pneumonia, or non-infectious complications such as falls or pressure sores.

Studies have found 10% of patients in hospital have some sort of health care-acquired infection, and around 5% have a pressure sore.

Hospitals work hard to try to prevent these complications, by making sure health care workers disinfect their hands and other equipment. However, complications still occur, particularly in patients who are debilitated from long hospital stays.

While most respiratory viral infections are mild, some can trigger serious complications, either directly or indirectly. It’s too early to tell how often this occurs with the Wuhan coronavirus. While we have initial data on those who were severely affected, many others may not have required medical care.The Conversation

Allen Cheng is a professor in Infectious Diseases Epidemiology at Monash University in Melbourne. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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(File photo, Radio NZ, Jonathan Mitchell)
(File photo, Radio NZ, Jonathan Mitchell)

ScienceFebruary 11, 2020

Cheat sheet: Just how bad is the big drought getting?

(File photo, Radio NZ, Jonathan Mitchell)
(File photo, Radio NZ, Jonathan Mitchell)

Increasingly large swathes of the country are getting bone dry, and it’s starting to cause serious problems. In today’s cheat sheet, Alex Braae looks into how bad the North Island drought is getting.

What’s all this then?

If you live in Auckland or further north, have you noticed how it hasn’t really rained all that much this year? Like, at all? In fact, over the entire month of January, only one day saw any decent rain in Auckland. In Northland it’s basically the same, and it also follows an unusually dry winter. And to the south, there are large areas of the country that aren’t seeing nearly enough rain either. Marlborough? Dry. Hawke’s Bay? Dry. Wairarapa? Dry. The East Cape? Real dry.

To see what the current rainfall levels look like in context, Niwa’s NZ Drought Monitor has been giving daily updates of conditions, and compiled them into this handy map:

Credit: NZ Drought Monitor

There’s a lot of red on that map.

It’s an extremely large amount of red. And to underline how serious it is, more than half of New Zealand’s population lives north of Taupō, and most of that segment lives in areas currently rated ‘drought’ or worse. It’s not just a North Island problem either, with the heavily populated Canterbury region showing some serious heat. Even Wellington, which has had a relatively dreadful summer for sun-lovers, is currently rated as dry.

What about the bits down in Southland and up the West Coast? 

The good news is that they’re not at risk of being in drought. The bad news is that it’s because the area has been hit with catastrophically high levels of rain, which caused severe disruption and flooding.

Is the fire risk higher at the moment?

Much higher. An example is currently underway in the Rangitikei district, near Bulls, where a scrub fire has been burning since yesterday. Around 80 hectares were burnt in the fire (slightly bigger than the equivalent of 80 rugby fields) and the smoke could be seen as far away as Woodville, a bit over 50kms away. That of course doesn’t sound like much in comparison to the Australian bushfires this summer, but this is a smaller country with much less to burn, and it’s not the only one we’ve seen this year. There have also been blazes near Napier, around the Whanganui River, up in Northland, and around Canterbury. In the case of that last one, the conditions are reportedly very similar to those before the terrible Port Hills fires of 2017.

If the rural landscape is very dry, does that mean this is bad for farming? 

That’s also being very hard hit, with many having to send stock to the meatworks early. The lack of grass means less feed is available now, and also means less will be able to be baled up for winter. Parts of the Waikato that heavily depend on dairy farming are also likely to see much less pasture growth than what they’d typically get, meaning less milk comes out of each cow.

Drought-hit farmland around Northland (Radio NZ, Liz Garton)

And how about people in cities and towns? 

Various water restrictions are now in place all over the country, ranging from people being asked to be a bit conscientious about how long they’re showering or watering the garden for, to the extreme end of schools possibly needing to close until the rain returns.

In Auckland, people are being asked to cut their water use voluntarily at the moment, with a record level of demand in place. City officials say there are currently no plans to implement restrictions, but it does rather feel like those sorts of decisions could become more pressing if the sun-heavy forecast is correct – right now Auckland is expected to get a little bit of rain in about a week. And out in the more distant western fringes of the city, where many residents are on tanks, the situation has become a “nightmare” for businesses who truck water around, with there simply being not enough logistical capability to get it to everyone who needs it.

By contrast, the Northland towns of Kaikohe and Dargaville are in absolute crisis. In the case of Kaikohe, the town may even simply run out of water altogether. As in, there just won’t be anything coming out of the taps. If that happens, school Boards of Trustees will have to decide whether they can safely stay open. Kaitaia is also undergoing their driest year ever, or at least since records began in 1949.

Is this climate change?

To a degree, absolutely yes. To what degree, it’s harder to say. But we do have weather pattern forecasts that indicate that typically dry areas of the country will be on average much drier in the coming years. And the increased temperatures we’ve been seeing for a while now are also having an impact. As climate scientist James Renwick put it last month, “it has now been 35 months since New Zealand had a month with below-average temperatures”. That should worry anyone who enjoys a regular shower and a tall glasses of water.

The final word:

In difficult times like these, it can help to remember the wisdom of earlier generations. So for everyone who’s Grandma ever told them “if it’s yellow, let it mellow,” now might be time to start thinking about adopting that policy.