The government says its fair pay agreements will stop a 30 year race to the bottom for workers, Justin Giovannetti writes in The Bulletin.

The biggest change to workplaces in a generation.

Nearly a year ago the government unveiled its plan for fair pay agreements. As I wrote at the time, it’s an economy-shaking move that could raise wages, empower trade unions and end precarious work. The agreements will create mandatory, sector-wide collective bargaining. They will likely be one of the most significant and lasting changes by the Ardern government. A bill is now sailing through the Labour-controlled parliament to make the agreements law. With the final shape of what’s to come set, Stuff looks at whether the agreements are fundamentally a good idea.

The impacts of fair pay agreements will be widely felt.

We won’t know what impact the agreements will have on workers, but it’s possible most New Zealanders will eventually be covered by one. There’s nothing in the law that limits it to cleaners, security guards and others in precarious occupations. Once 10% of employees in a proposed sector sign up, an agreement setting minimum pay and conditions becomes mandatory. If employers and unions can’t agree on a deal, the Employment Relations Authority will impose one. Newshub sets up the debate, with some workers enthusiastic for the change, while employers are worried. The Employment and Manufacturers Association has warned it could lead to the return of meal breaks and triple time, both “problematic” perks dropped in the 1990s, it said.

The arguments for and against the agreements.

Business NZ represents over 70,000 businesses across the country. It refused the government’s offer to be the representative for businesses during negotiations in the future. Business NZ’s Kirk Hope told RNZ that he views the agreements as “fundamentally flawed”. The main argument against the agreements is that they are inflexible and a throwback to the last century. Business NZ is also arguing to the International Labour Organization, a UN agency, that the mandatory nature of the agreements makes them unlawful. An alternative system, the group argues, would be setting new minimum standards in jobs with well-documented labour problems. The government’s argument is that the last 30 years of light regulations has been bad for many workers and Labour campaigned vigorously in the last election to introduce the agreements.

Support could be all a question of timing.

It’s difficult in my mind to disentangle fair pay agreements from the government’s other significant labour change, the proposed income insurance scheme. There was a Bulletin about it in February. The two are vastly different ideas, but the players are the same and the point is to make work fairer. Both also suffer from a similar problem: the timing couldn’t be worse. Both will increase costs on employers at a time when inflation is running rampant and consumers can’t handle more expensive shops. The House reported earlier this week that businesses are on edge, with all of that in front of parliament, as well as the Matariki public holiday bill. There’s little support across the aisle for the government’s business agenda. Newshub reports that Act has promised to cancel all of it, while National isn’t too keen.

The new variant is highly transmissible, but experts caution little is yet known about XE, Justin Giovannetti writes in The Bulletin.

XE is potentially 10% more transmissible than omicron.

Global health authorities are keeping a close eye on the new variant and the World Health Organisation has warned it could be up to 10% more transmissible than Omicron’s BA.2 subvariant. For context, BA.2 was potentially the most infectious Covid variant seen before XE and is fuelling new waves of cases around the world. BA.2 is currently the dominant strain in New Zealand. As Stuff explains, in this third year of the pandemic numerous variants, subvariants and recombinations have been detected, but most never spread far. Much isn’t yet known about XE, but early indications have led the WHO to urge caution.

What’s the deal with XE?

The variant was first detected in the UK in mid-January and over 600 cases have now been identified across that country. Unlike omicron and delta before it, XE is a recombinant. That means someone got infected with the two omicron subvariants, BA.1 and BA.2, simultaneously. As the virus replicated in their body, it made mistakes, copying bits of both subvariants and making a new hybrid. Voila, XE. The spike protein in XE was taken from BA.2. That’s the first part of the virus our immune system sees, so someone who was previously infected with BA.2 should have some level of protection. The NZ Herald reports that a 10% boost in transmission advantage is slight, so it’s not an unprecedented threat.

Should you be worried about XE?

Probably not right now. Millions are currently infected with Covid around the world and while the pandemic doesn’t cause as much fear and dread as it once did, we should remain alert. With so many cases, Covid is constantly changing. XE will make its way to New Zealand eventually, especially as border settings are relaxed. The variant is so new, it doesn’t have an official name yet. Jemma Geoghegan, a virologist at the University of Otago, explains:

“XE has not been assigned its own Greek letter yet. For the moment, it belongs to Omicron until significant differences in transmission and disease characteristics, including severity, are identified. So far there is not enough evidence to draw conclusions about the transmissibility, severity or immune evasion properties of XE. It is quite likely this recombinant would possess similar disease characteristics to its ‘parents’, BA.1 and BA.2.”

New Zealand has plans for wider surveillance to pick up new variants.

The country is on watch for XE and other new variants that will arrive. Director-general of health Ashley Bloomfield explained to RNZ that wide national testing is needed as we enter winter. With concerns about the return of flu, after a two year absence, keeping tabs on new variants will inform the country’s health response to Covid and other illnesses. The NZ Herald reports that Bloomfield warned a highly transmissible variant, worse than omicron, could force the return to stricter Covid rules. It won’t be clear for days or weeks whether XE could be that variant.