The government has announced a major overhaul of population data collection, but experts say the new approach carries serious risks, writes Catherine McGregor in today’s extract from The Bulletin.
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See ya, census
After nearly 175 years, New Zealand’s national census is coming to an end, reports Kelly Dennett in The Post (paywalled). Statistics minister Shane Reti confirmed that the five-yearly population count will be replaced with an annual survey model from 2030, which will mainly rely on data already collected by government agencies, known in the trade as administrative data. Reti says the move reflects the need for more timely and cost-effective insights, pointing to the $325 million cost of the 2023 census and an expected $400m for the next.
Under the new model, a smaller sample survey will be combined with existing government datasets – from tax records to school enrolments – to produce population statistics on an annual basis. Reti described the overhaul as a reset of Stats NZ’s priorities, saying it would “get back to basics – measuring what matters”. He also provided details of the plan to start delivering a monthly Consumer Price Index from 2027, which was announced in Budget 2025. The government will invest $16.5 million to adjust the CPI from quarterly to monthly, “bringing New Zealand into line with other advanced economies”.
A troubled recent history
The census has played a central role in shaping New Zealand’s social and political landscape since 1851, albeit one that initially excluded Māori. But its recent history has been plagued by controversy. The failed digital-first approach of the 2018 census produced the lowest response rates in decades, especially among Māori and Pasifika, and government statistician Liz MacPherson resigned amid the fallout. Five years later, the 2023 census saw a marginally improved response, but was marred by a data breach involving subcontracted collectors at Manurewa Marae. A public apology followed, and chief executive Mark Sowden stepped down. The repeated controversies have shaken confidence in the census, laying the groundwork for its eventual demise.
Bridging the trust deficit
Despite a 99.1% total population coverage in 2023 thanks to the inclusion of administrative data, the census response rate sat at just 88.3% – well below the 95.1% recorded in 2006. So-called “hard refusals” more than doubled from 2018 to over 10,000 in 2023, with anti-government sentiment cited by over a quarter of those refusing to participate, reported Laura Walters in Newsroom. “People are busier… there is suspicion about giving their data to Government Inc,” Sowden told a select committee last year. The anti-government sentiment was likely magnified by the 2022 Parliament protest and the proximity of the Covid-19 pandemic, he said.
The huge increase in cost between the 2018 census ($123m) and the 2023 version ($326m) was directly attributable to the challenges of getting people to take part, Sowden said. Stats NZ needed to double the number of field workers, and did about five times as much community engagement. Though Stats NZ has legal powers to fine non-compliers, it chose not to issue infringement notices in 2023, citing resource constraints.
A bold experiment with high stakes
Writing in Newsroom, former government statistician Len Cook warns that the shift to a survey-based model carries serious risks. Unlike countries such as the Netherlands or Israel, which use surveys alongside compulsory population registration, New Zealand has never maintained a formal population register and does not issue identity cards. As a result, Stats NZ will struggle to ensure data quality is maintained – yet it’s vitally important that the government has the demographic data it needs. Leaving policy settings as they are in the face of falling fertility and rising life expectancy “will have the same effect as a fall in government revenue of more than 30% by 2045”, Cook warns. “Almost all publicly funded services will face pressures of a far greater magnitude than we are currently seeing. Without regular knowledge we can trust, we will have little information to plan with.”
