Most people don’t have time to read everything on budget day, so Henry Oliver narrowed it down to a manageable ten for you to catch up on in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.
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Maybe this was an election-year budget after all
With all the talk of prudence and tough love (and a lack of lolly scrambles), some pundits praised the budget for its political neutrality, saying this wasn’t a budget where money was being splashed around to win votes. But, Toby Manhire points out on The Spinoff, there was still a sprinkling of election-year candy, especially in health, which ranks as voters’ second major concern behind cost of living, which got very little relief in the budget.
Perhaps most powerful in an election year was the budget’s sense of cautious optimism, that things are getting better, that ships will make their way through the Strait of Hormuz, that gas will get cheaper, that books will get balanced, and that the current government is the best bet to get us there.
“As for Labour,” Manhire writes, “the stopwatch has begun for a substantial policy response. It’s a fair bit of pressure. The strategy of saying as little as possible has had its boldest vindication in the last few days, when people heard what they were saying.”
What’s in it – and what is not
Lyric Waiwiri-Smith, who was in the budget lock up in Wellington for The Spinoff, provides a good overview of what’s in the budget, but was one of the only reports I saw to single out a $27 million cut to the Ministry of Arts, Culture and Heritage which will decrease available funding for, among others, Radio New Zealand, Creative New Zealand, New Zealand Film Commission, Heritage New Zealand and the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra.
She also reviewed the food, including this assessment of a chicken, brie and cranberry sandwich (which sounds like something only Tom Sainsbury’s Paula Bennet would eat): “The coalition government as a sandwich; all of these ingredients taste OK on their own, but are made worse by being combined.”
Shuffling the deck chairs on a drifting Interislander ferry
Joel McManus, who was also in the lockup for The Spinoff, focuses on the perma-optimism of Treasury, which is baked-in to the return to balanced books of the budget:
“The opening pages of Budget 2026 contain a series of warnings about everything that is going wrong or could go wrong in the near future: the conflict in the Middle East, the price of oil, inflation, global trade disruption and rising interest rates. … And yet, the pages of Budget 2026 are awash with optimistic projections of a better future. The government promises that costs will come down, unemployment will drop, inflation will drop, Crown debt will drop and the economy will boom… all at some ever-changing point in the future. ‘Of course, numbers can always change,’ finance minister Nicola Willis acknowledged in her speech inside the budget lockup.”
But it’s not all doom and gloom. At least not forever: “Eventually, things will probably turn around – or at least revert to the mean – whether driven by government initiatives or just the power of time.”
‘Politically neutral’
For BusinessDesk, Pattrick Smellie is cautiously optimistic. The big surprise for many, including Smellie, is a forecast $2.6 billion surplus by 2028-29 – conveniently timed for the November election – with enough buffer to survive if the public service savings ($2.6 billion) disappoint. Growth forecasts of 2.7% annually are more upbeat than expected given the Iran war disruption, propped up by strong commodity prices and a higher nominal tax take from oil-driven inflation.
Still, he considered the budget “politically neutral” as it didn’t contain anything that could conceivably ‘buy the vote’ or any average voter. “That is commendable,” he writes. “Whether the Treasury’s economic and fiscal forecasts are right matters less than the fact that they are no more nor less credible than in any previous Budget.”
One Māori-targeted spend
On Te Ao News, Mani Dunlop breaks down the budget, both generally and from a Māori perspective. “While billions are being directed into broad public services and major infrastructure projects, only one major Māori-targeted package of fresh funding has been announced in this year’s Budget, focused on te reo Māori and Māori broadcasting making up about $48 million over 4 years,” she writes.
This is to help media organisations adapt to the digital shift, commission new te reo content, and develop talent – plus $10 million in reprioritised funding over five years for Te Māori Tū, targeting growing international interest in Māori culture and storytelling.
Māori development minister Tama Potaka framed it as an investment in te reo as a living taonga rather than a legacy artefact. It’s modest in the context of the broader budget, but it’s the headline Māori-related announcement – notably outward-facing and cultural rather than directed at the social and economic pressures facing Māori communities.
Roads of budget significance
For Newsroom, Jonathan Milne focused on roads. Chris Bishop got less than he’d hoped for but more than nothing. Of the 15 ‘Roads of National Significance’ National promised at the last election – now estimated at a eyewatering $56 billion – only one gets funded: the 16km Cambridge-to-Piarere leg of the Waikato Expressway, at $1.8 billion, or $112,000 a metre. Bishop prefers the benefit-cost ratio framing: 3-to-1, with a promised 70% reduction in deaths and serious injuries.
The remaining $400 million goes on what Bishop calls “transport resilience projects” – slope stabilisation, rockfall protection, drainage upgrades and bridge replacements on vulnerable corridors from the Coromandel to Southland. All the unglamorous stuff.
There’s also an awkward admission from Willis that the planned fuel excise hike in January (meant to pay for roads) is almost certainly getting deferred given current petrol prices, leaving a hole of between $250 million and $1 billion in the roads funding. The other 14 Roads of National Significance remain on the wantlist.
Charts, charts and more charts
If you’re a visual learner, head to The Post for Henry Cooke’s chart-heavy breakdown (paywalled) of the budget graphic form (though there’s writing too). If, like me, you love bar charts (both horizontal and clustered), line charts, and especially treemaps, you’re in for a treat.
Where *your* money is actually going
More fancy stuff from Henry Cooke: I love this Budget 2026 calculator, also on The Post (paywalled). Enter your salary and it will tell you how much you pay in tax and where that money will go in the year ahead to June 2027.
Looking out and in to the Pacific
The Pacific News Network’s William Terite looks at the budget’s allocation for Pacific aid and finds “a clear split between Aotearoa’s regional priorities and its domestic cost-cutting drive.”
The contrast is stark. Overseas, the government will spend up on Pacific engagement: $110 million in development and humanitarian assistance across the Pacific and Indo-Pacific, $145 million maintaining the offshore diplomatic network, and $20 million to host Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Week in 2027 – all part of a foreign aid budget that has grown by $116 million to $1.2 billion.
At home, the Ministry for Pacific Peoples is being hollowed out. No new funding, baseline cuts already underway, and $2.8 million cut over four years through what the budget calls “increased efficiencies in workforce and operational management.”
The message some could take: the geopolitics of Pacific nations are a priority. Pacific communities living here, less so.
A lolly scramble of takes
To round things out, as has become an annual tradition, The Spinoff invited smart people from around the motu (and the apolitical spectrum) to give their takes on the budget. Of particular interest were:
Belinda Himiona, chief executive at Te Pai Ora SSPA (Social Service Providers Aotearoa), is frustrated that this year’s budget places a premium on infrastructure, defence and law and order, and not cost-of-living.
Tax specialist Terry Baucher helpfully explains the concept of ‘fiscal drag’, a common tactic to help balance the books, where “growth in salaries means average tax rates for individuals increase as they cross tax thresholds”
Holly Bennett, managing director of lobbying firm Awhi and a former adviser to National ministers, applauds a change in tax rules so when a company closes, any shareholder loan still outstanding six months later will attract tax, targeting any shareholder who uses their business to withdraw money tax-free by taking “loans” that were never truly intended to be repaid.
Ah-Leen Rayner, chief executive of Breast Cancer Foundation NZ, laments the mere maintenance of the status quo when it comes to Pharmac.
