The Māori roll is growing, stoked both by new enrolments and voters switching from the general roll. Ātea editor Liam Rātana explores what’s behind the increase and how it could impact the election.

There are now almost 310,000 Māori on the Māori roll, 54,000 more than on the general roll. The 10% difference – 55% to 45% – is the largest discrepancy between the two rolls since 2013, at a time when the results in the Māori seats could have a significant impact on the outcome of the election. Between April 1, 2023 and August 3, 2026, 60,736 people of Māori descent enrolled for the first time – 37,919 of them (62.4%) on the Māori roll. During that same period, 45,572 voters of Māori descent switched from the general roll to the Māori roll, far more than the 28,630 who switched from the Māori roll to the general roll.

Māori can continue to enrol for the first time on either roll until October 25, but can no longer switch between the two until after the election on November 7 – the option of changing from one roll to the other ended on August 6, three months before election day. The Electoral Commission considers the period from March 31 to when the roll-changing option ends to be the “Māori electoral option period”, and says there was more enrolment activity during that period this year compared to 2023. But as the period is several weeks longer this year than in 2023 because of the later election, and because Māori have been able to switch between rolls at any time since the last election, comparing the two periods isn’t particularly helpful.

A more direct comparison is to look at quarters in election years, and in quarter two (April 1 to July 31) of 2026, there were 5,366 new Māori enrolments, 62% of which were on the Māori roll. In quarter two of 2023, there were less than half as many: 2,322 new Māori enrolments (still a majority, 65%, were on the Māori roll).

One factor that could be spurring the early surge of Māori enrolments is the fact that doing so late is no longer an option. That’s thanks to changes to the Electoral Act the government made in December last year, including removing the ability to enrol to vote during the advance voting period (the final two weeks before election day). In response, there have been several campaigns focused on encouraging Māori enrolment, with one of the most popular led by Green Party candidate for Waiariki Tania Waikato, featuring scantily clad Māori men and women.

“It does seem like those sorts of efforts have worked,” associate professor in politics at Te Herenga Waka Victoria University Lara Greaves told The Spinoff.

The boost in numbers on the Māori roll has also been helped by overseas-based Māori, with 11,511 of them enrolled in Māori electorates as of July 1, 2026 – a 67% increase from 6,891 at the 2023 election. Queensland-based enrolment advocates Rachael Marie Johnstone and Nicole Orzecki told RNZ they had seen a surge in interest in Māori overseas wanting to vote, particularly younger people who felt politics was becoming more relevant to them and parliament was no longer the domain of “old white men”.

Despite the rise in enrolments this year, it’s worth noting that slightly fewer Māori are enrolled on either the Māori roll or the general roll than at the time of the last election: 565,092 in total, down 2,000 from 567,000 at the 2023 election. It’s nothing to worry about, according to the Electoral Commission. “It is normal for enrolment numbers to drop between elections on both the general roll and Māori roll, and then increase again before the election. That’s consistent with the pattern we’re seeing this year… We expect this number to increase before the election,” a spokesperson told The Spinoff.

In 2023, just under 61,000 Māori enrolled to vote in the 85-day period between July 20 and election day on October 14, most of them (84%) in the final two weeks. This year there are 80 days between August 6 and October 25, when enrolment closes, so Māori enrolment numbers could see a similar boost – as long as the early roll closure has been communicated successfully, and people aren’t trying to enrol in the two weeks before election day.

At its campaign launch last weekend, Te Pāti Māori announced it would be focusing solely on the electorate vote across the seven Māori seats and not campaigning for the party vote. The idea is to engineer an overhang of up to seven seats in parliament, increasing the likelihood of the left bloc being able to form the next government.

“This is the very first time the Māori roll will be determining who the next prime minister is,” Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi said recently on The Hui. “If Te Pāti Māori is able to win the seven Māori seats, the Greens hold on to their 12-13% [of the vote] and Labour holds on to their 34%, we’ve got a change in government.”

While the tactic may be good in theory, there is also an argument to be made for Māori remaining on the general roll. With 10% more Māori voters on the Māori roll than the general roll, Māori will have less influence in the general electorates. The seven Māori electorates are all but guaranteed to go to either Labour, Te Pāti Māori or the Greens, but having fewer Māori voters voting in the general electorates could potentially decrease the number of votes left-leaning candidates there receive.

Getting Māori to turn out and vote will be a key focus for the left. Turnout for voters of Māori descent across the general and Māori rolls was 70.3% at the last election, down from 72.9% in 2020 and 8% lower than non-Māori turnout. Turnout of voters on the Māori roll was 68%, down from 69.1% in 2020.

“The regulatory impact statement [for the Electoral Amendment Act 2025] showed that 48% of 18- to 19-year-old Māori who voted last time enrolled in that two-week period [before the election],” said Greaves. “So we were really at risk of enrolment changes disenfranchising Maori. I’m not totally confident Māori enrolment will translate to votes.”

Based on enrolment numbers, the Māori electorates and their chosen representatives will have their largest ever mandate. If Te Pāti Māori does manage to claim all seven Māori seats, they may be well placed to force a backtrack from Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who recently ruled out any members of Te Pāti Māori holding senior positions in a cabinet led by him.

“We’ll see come November 8,” Waititi said.