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Image: Archi Banal
Image: Archi Banal

Covid-19August 20, 2023

The lifting of restrictions signals the end of an era – but not the end of Covid

Image: Archi Banal
Image: Archi Banal

The downstream impacts will reverberate indefinitely, writes Derek Cheng.

It’s over. Kind of.

The lifting of the last remaining Covid restrictions last week signalled the end of a period of more than three years where, at its most acute, we were told to stay home and keep to our bubbles while the borders were indefinitely closed.

We largely stuck to the unprecedented restrictions and managed to strangle the virus to the point where some semblance of normal could resume. And each time a new variant or new vaccine or new treatment came along, discussions would ensue about what the “new normal” would be like.

Now we’re supposedly at the final “new normal”, where New Zealanders have no need to be mindful of any government restrictions, and living with the virus has become the inevitable reality.

But Covid hasn’t vanished.

It has already taken more than 3,000 lives while disrupting businesses, classrooms and hospitals in ways that continue to reverberate.

Staff shortages in the health sector were already under pressure, but Covid exacerbated this by forcing infected staff into isolation and pushing their mental and physical limits as the worst of the pandemic swept through hospital wards. Over the coming decade, the government now estimates New Zealand will need nearly 13,000 extra nurses and over 5,000 more doctors.

And the latest Education Review Office report says only 19% of school principals in 2023 believed their school had recovered from Covid disruptions.

Then there’s the death toll, on track to be around 1,000 this year, or twice as deadly as the flu.

Covid could unleash havoc again if a nastier, deadlier, more infectious and more vaccine-immune variant emerged. But there are a lot of “ifs” in that equation, and even if they all aligned, we would hopefully be starting in a far less vulnerable position.

We would have a high level of population immunity – from both vaccinations and previous infections – which would provide some sort of protection, and we would have treatments that were unavailable when the pandemic started.

More likely, Covid will just fade into the background as one of a number of diseases that we might get infected with. This will put an extra burden on hospitals and doctors and school attendance, but hopefully a manageable one.

Life will go on largely as it did pre-pandemic – especially if you’re younger, healthier, richer, and non-Māori or non-Pacific.

The limits of what is manageable will probably be tested less by the next surge in infections and more by the downstream effects of Long Covid – symptoms of Covid that last for weeks, months, even years.

Research suggests Long Covid might be linked to early stages of neurodegeneration, and even the likes of Parkinson’s disease. It also indicates you’re more likely to suffer Long Covid the less vaccinated you are or the more often you get infected.

And once you have it, there’s still a giant mystery over how long it might last and what can be done about it.

“Multiple potential Long Covid therapeutics are in development. However, none have been clinically proven at this stage,” says the Ministry of Health’s latest evidence brief about Long Covid, from November 2022.

And if, as evidence suggests, as many as 10 to 20% of those infected get Long Covid, that could mean major future knocks to the labour market and wider economy.

The evidence brief discusses this: the “widespread but hard to quantify” financial impact, including a reduced ability to work (which shrinks the workforce and productivity potential) and greater cost pressures on individuals, including lost wages, lost savings, and possibly more debt to cover healthcare costs.

Young people with Long Covid could even develop certain neuropsychiatric conditions – these can present as insomnia, anxiety, impaired concentration or fatigue – which “could potentially lead to a widespread economic burden for future generations”.

And then there’s the same equity question that has been repeatedly raised throughout the pandemic: how should the greater Long Covid burden for Māori and Pacific peoples be addressed?

It’s no great comfort that this part of the “new normal” is no different from the last one.

This story first appeared on nzherald.co.nz as a Herald Premium story. You can subscribe to Herald Premium here.

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Graduation and Covid-19
Image: Getty / Design: Tina Tiller

Covid-19April 13, 2023

The ‘unfair’ rule stopping Covid-positive students from postponing their graduation 

Graduation and Covid-19
Image: Getty / Design: Tina Tiller

Get Covid the week of your university graduation? Not all tertiary institutions will offer any leeway. Stewart Sowman-Lund reports.

This week the government agreed to maintain the final guard against the spread of Covid-19 for at least two more months, with the mandatory seven day self-isolation requirement staying in place until at least June.

As has been the case throughout the past three years of the pandemic, that means many people will be forced to miss important events or put off travel plans as they stay indoors for a week following the onset of Covid symptoms.

While isolation is mandatory, flexibility isn’t. AirBnb, for example, removed its Covid refund policy in April 2022. And some universities have chosen to stop Covid-positive students from deferring their chance to graduate.

That’s a move that Grace, a student at the University of Canterbury, says is “unfair”. 

Just as it has for many students, Covid had already made it a long road to graduation for Grace. After finishing her studies in November 2021, she was told her grades wouldn’t be back in time for that year’s December graduation ceremony. The next ceremony, in April 2022, was cancelled due to the pandemic and Grace opted not to attend the following August’s event because her family couldn’t make it. Work commitments similarly meant she couldn’t make the December 2022 event – “so April 2023 was when I hoped to graduate”.

But on the week of the ceremony, Grace tested positive for Covid-19. After informing the university that she had to remain in isolation, she was told that it wouldn’t be possible to defer graduating until the next ceremony. It was simply too late. “We are not able to defer you to the next celebration,” the university told Grace in an email. “Your name will be called at the April celebration and your name will be in the graduation programme.”

It was a massive disappointment for Grace. “I was pretty gutted,” she said. “It’s hard enough missing out on graduating with friends and having your family in town – but never being able to graduate was the cherry on top.” Her certificate would instead be mailed out to her. “I think it’s unfair,” Grace said.

A spokesperson for the University of Canterbury confirmed that it had strict rules in place that meant it wasn’t possible for students to reschedule their graduation at the last minute. “Covid-19 information for our students is on the University of Canterbury website, and aligns with government guidelines,” the spokesperson said. 

“It has been hard for millions of people around the world to miss out on in-person graduation celebrations amid national and international lockdown and public health restriction periods. Unfortunately, as we need to organise thousands of conferments per year, attendance is not able to be rescheduled after the final date to withdraw has passed.”

Grace also said she knew of people choosing not to test for Covid-19 the week of their graduation so there was no risk of missing the in-person ceremony. The university spokesperson said they would be “concerned” if this was the case. “Many graduates invite their loved ones to attend graduation celebrations who are elderly and/or immune-compromised,” they said.

Canterbury isn’t the only tertiary institute with similar rules around Covid-19 and graduation. The University of Auckland confirmed, too, that any students in isolation at the time of their planned ceremony would have to graduate in absentia. However, spokespeople for both Otago and Victoria universities said students could opt to defer their graduation to a later date, even at the last minute. “If a student tests positive for Covid-19 the week they are expected to graduate, we would fully withdraw them from the ceremony so that they can attend a later graduation ceremony,” the Otago spokesperson told The Spinoff.

This week Stuff revealed the University of Canterbury had “quietly” cancelled its December graduation ceremonies, prompting disappointment from students who said the pandemic had already caused enough disruption over the past few years.

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