The new poll that tells the true story of the 2026 election

Just as the gang issue was dominating headlines, a special edition of the Ipsos Issues Monitor was in the field. 

It’s the cost of living, stupid.

The tortuous campaign of 2026 has gone around some strange corners, including a fortnight of focus on politicians’ engagement with gangs, but none of it has shaken the primacy of the issue that matters to people more than anything: the cost of living and inflation. 

That is the unmistakable conclusion from a special edition of the Ipsos Issues Monitor, published today with just five days to go in the election campaign. The survey of 1,008 people was undertaken between October 19 and 27, precisely as the gang issue was dominating headlines. 

There is no increase in the number of people who name crime and law-and-order as one of their three biggest concerns. In fact it has fallen by one percentage point to 14%. It does remain the one issue on which National is rated the best party to tackle the problem, but Labour has closed the gap to one point; 29% prefer National, 28% Labour. On all seven of the issues placed higher, Labour is judged the best party to respond.

“While fieldwork for this wave of the Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor coincided with prominent media coverage of politicians engaging with gangs, New Zealanders are sending a clear message about what matters most to them as they head to the polling booth,” said Carin Hercock, country manager for Ipsos NZ. “Inflation and the cost of living remain the country's leading concern and continue to dominate the public agenda.”

A big part of the cost of living challenge on the minds of voters is fuel. The issue has jumped from seventh to third on the list, selected by 31% – a remarkable jump from 17% in the September survey. It sits behind cost of living (64%) and health (45%). 

That mirrors the real-world forecourt pain. Having eased off in the middle of the year, from July petrol prices started rising again, and that has continued through the campaign proper.

The extent to which voters hold the National government responsible is less clear. The principal driver for the surge in prices is the conflict in the Middle East that began in February with strikes on Iran by the US and Israel. 

Christopher Luxon insists he at no point entertained supporting the attacks. His foreign minister, Winston Peters, sees it differently. He told the Spinoff: "Against the record of history coming, we'll find out who is telling the truth or not."

In the campaign, Luxon has switched up his rhetoric, deploring “Trump’s crazy war in Iran”.

In truth, of course, New Zealand has no meaningful influence on the passage of fuel in the Strait of Hormuz. The “Defence / foreign affairs / terrorism” category is selected as one of the three most important issues in this latest survey by just 2% of respondents. 

Views on the performance of the government are unchanged since September, with an average rating of 4.1 out of 10.

Three further opinion polls are expected to be published in the next few days: Verian for 1News, Curia for the Taxpayers’ Union, and Freshwater for the Post.