Latest Taxpayers’ Union polling also has Opportunity back below the five percent threshold.

Labour and National are both polling below 30 percent in a new poll that also has Opportunity short of the threshold needed for getting into government.

The Quilae Wong-led upstarts have fallen from 6.1 to 4.5 percent in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, bucking the trend found in other polls.

Labour has taken a big hit, down 1.9 to 25.9 percent – its lowest result in this poll since July 2024, and even lower than the 26.9 point thrashing it got at the 2023 election.

National has also taken a tumble, down two points, to 29 percent – also significantly lower than the 38 percentage points it won at the last election.

The current coalition government would be returned to power based on this poll, with Opportunity unable to get above 5 percent and become kingmaker.

ACT and the Greens were the main beneficiaries of the major parties and Opportunity’s collapse. The Greens were up 3.8 percentage points to 13.9 percent, and ACT up 3.2 to 10.5 percent.

New Zealand First was down 0.7 to 8.4 percent.

Te Pāti Māori gained 0.5 points to 2 percent. The party this year hopes to use MMP’s overhang to boost the chance of removing the coalition.

Rounding out the party vote results were NZ Loyal (1.5 percent), Animal Justice (1.2), Women’s Rights (0.7), Vision NZ (0.5) and the New Conservatives (0.5).

When it came to seats, the coalition – National, ACT and NZ First – would get 64 compared to the opposition – Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori – on 56. The right-leaning Taxpayers’ Union’s analysis assumes Te Pāti Māori would win three seats.

Opportunity would get zero on these results, being below the 5 percent threshold.

Christopher Luxon remained ahead of Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister, down 2 percentage points to 21.2 percent. Hipkins fell 2.9 to 16.9 percent.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Tuesday 01 September and Thursday 03 September 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 4.1% were undecided on the party vote question.

This story was first published on rnz.co.nz