Anna Fifield on a fragile pause in the Middle East conflict, and New Zealand’s stance on a controversial war and genocidal rhetoric from Donald Trump.
Winston Peters was in Washington DC to meet his US counterpart, Marco Rubio, just as Donald Trump issued a social media post that was enraged and belligerent, even by his own standard.
Mercifully, before the deadline for unleashing attacks that many say would have been war crimes, and which the president suggested would cause “a whole civilisation [to] die”, a ceasefire was announced. Brokered by Pakistan with reported encouragement from China, the fortnight-long pause includes a halt in strikes and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
But had Peters raised concerns about breaches of international law in his encounter with the US secretary of state? “You’ll be shocked to hear that he did not,” observed Anna Fifield in a special epsiode of the Spinoff podcast Gone By Lunchtime. “The readouts from both sides were very chummy … Winston Peters talked about the negative impact on New Zealand’s economy and the regional economy from this conflict in the Middle East. And they did talk about international law, but only as it relates to freedom of navigation, so open access to sea lanes. That was the extent of his concerns.”
Conversations with people familiar with the meeting suggested that Peters “did not raise any other issues to do with human rights abuses or breaches of the Geneva Conventions by targeting civilians … I was told that the meeting was very future focused, as opposed to dwelling on the past … He didn’t raise the continued suffering of 93 million people in Iran, the basis for the war, any of that kind of stuff, which, frankly, as a New Zealander, I find really disappointing, because this rule of law is the thing that keeps us safe and keeps us able to play on something like a level playing field in the international community.”
Trump did have a tendency to lash out against those who put their heads above the parapet, but “I think that our diplomats are smart enough, our foreign minister, who is very experienced, is also smart enough, and that our relationship with the United States is mature enough so that if we are really actually friendly with them, then Peters should have been able to raise our concerns and our objections to the way that this war has been executed in a grown-up, robust, civil way, and reflect the thoughts of the majority of New Zealanders.”
As to the prospects for what comes next, the best hope may be if Trump declares victory, whatever the truth of that, and hostilities come to a more enduring end. “A de-escalation and end to the actual fighting – which encompasses now, I think, 17 countries in the Middle East, between all the rockets and missiles and drones going everywhere – is definitely the number one priority for people in the region and people around the world as well,” said Fifield. “So maybe we are on a pathway to that now, but I think that it’s going to continue for a while yet. Because, you know, this is the second time in a year that Iran has been invaded by or been attacked by Israel and the United States. So they’re really going to want some security guarantees and some sense that they’re not going to face a third conflict in six months’ time. So I think that they’re going to really play hardball to try to ensure that that doesn’t happen. Negotiations will probably be really tough.”
Anna Fifield writes the World Bulletin Weekly exclusively for Spinoff members and the Between Giants newsletter. She has reported for the Financial Times and Washington Post from the Middle East, Asia, Europe and America.
