As it happened: Luxon survives leadership vote, Penk sacked

The sun rises at 6.47am in Wellington, which is about the time the first domestic flights land in the capital, some of them disgorging those National MPs not already arrived, all with a serious decision ahead.

The clock is ticking down to 9.30am, when the caucus will meet. Its task, as National leader and prime minister Christopher Luxon declared yesterday, is to “resolve the issue”.

Translation: decide whether they want to keep him as leader in the election campaign.

Luxon survived a showdown in April, when he called a confidence vote in himself. Can he stare the dissenters down again? If he can, then will those dissenters be cast out of the fold?

And if he can’t, or if he has been presented with incontrovertible numbers overnight such that he stands down ahead of the meeting, who will take over, less than three months out from an election, leading both the party and the country?

It’s a big few hours ahead.

Here’s a quick wrap of what went down yesterday, across the last fortnight and the last year, in the leadup to this morning’s crescendo, along with some thoughts on what might be going through National MPs’ minds as they go into caucus this morning …

Nobody, as yet, has raised their hand to challenge the National leader and prime minister.

There are just a few ways this could play out. The first question, of course, is whether Luxon can win enough support to hold on. The conversations are likely to have gone late into the night; it’s possible he has already been presented with a fait accompli.

If he can’t state the threat down for the second time in six months, then what? It could be that an alternative leader and deputy emerge from the caucus room. Or a contest, presumably on a seriously rapid timetable, ensues.

There are three names being talked about as leading the field for potential successors. Chris Bishop, Erica Stanford and Mark Mitchell. Mitchell is considered a strong shout for deputy, in part to offset the social liberal inclinations of Bishop and Stanford. Simeon Brown is another possible deputy, with the twin advantages of conservative chops and Auckland base.

Nicola Willis is one of the most impressive performers of this government, but may be too closely associated with both Luxon and the economic frailties of this term to take the top job. At the same time, replacing her in finance could be seen as too great a rupture if the leader changes.

Supporters of Luxon’s leadership can reasonably argue that the incumbent coalition, by most measures, is leading polls. Why would you risk changing a winning course?

Opponents can reasonably argue that the trends are troubling, and that his leadership looks more like a drag than a drive in seeking a second term.

The loyalty of one of Christopher Luxon’s most enthusiastic high-profile supporters is unwavering this morning. Mike Hosking of Newstalk ZB has advised listeners that Camp Luxon is “quietly confident” of seeing off the critics today. The prime minister had been “getting white-anted” for months and “you’ve got to try to nip it in the bud”, he said.

The MPs moving against Luxon were driven by their own self-interest in losing seats despite a National-led government on course for re-election, he said. “It is a rare day you see a group of such self-centred people try so hard to cock up their race … Today is about introspection, self-absorption, selfishness.”

Hosking reserved his greatest opprobrium for minister Chris Penk, who was “the biggest duplicitous shit”, he seethed. Penk yesterday told reporters he had full confidence in Luxon.

“The whole thing is a cluster,” said Hoskng. But, “I just don’t see Luxon getting rolled.”

Across on RNZ, John Campbell opened proceedings by saying, “No one knows what is going to happen, but it does feel like the pendulum is swinging towards Christopher Luxon being unable to make a compelling case to stay in the job.”

Tova O’Brien, meanwhile, has arrived before dawn at her natural habitat, the parliamentary forecourt, to report for TVNZ Breakfast. “It is on here,” she said. “It is pretty chaotic. It’s going to be messy, one MP told me.”

So far there is no sign of O’Brien’s beret but there is plenty of time to go.

There’s still nothing quite like the front pages on a big news day. These are the words on the doorsteps of print-lovers this morning.

Henry Oliver has renounced slumber to ingest just about every word written across New Zealand media outlets across the last 12 hours, and lays it out as he does every weekday in the Bulletin. For those who haven’t already read it in their inbox, find it on the site here.

Also on the Spinoff this morning, Lyric Waiwiri-Smith has been asking the experts about the risks and rewards of rolling Luxon, while I’ve travelled as usual down Juggernaut lane to revisit the last time a New Zealand prime minister was rolled by his own MPs.

The Herald is leading online with a report, drawing on an unnamed source, that Chris Penk is running the numbers for an Erica Stanford leadership bid. “The Herald has been told by an outsider linked by the party that Penk was, on behalf of Stanford, engaging National MPs to see whether she could have the numbers to roll Luxon.”

Penk, recently promoted by Luxon and appointed defence minister – and given a tongue lashing this morning by Mike Hosking (see 6.38am) – last night told reporters he had “always expressed confidence in the leader and now’s no different”.

Jenna Lynch paints a grim picture of the morning’s prospects on Stuff. “If those seeking to roll Christopher Luxon have not yet got the numbers, they’d better get their collective backsides into gear and corral the last few votes before 9.30am, or be ready to resign themselves,” writes the outlet’s political editor.

“Because even without actually knifing him, by letting it get to this point, in a public show of disunity, they have mortally wounded an already bruised and limping prime minister. If they don’t move, another false threat to his leadership and attempting to launch a coup-by-media only serves to undermine the party as a whole.”

David Seymour has told Newstalk ZB that no one from the National Party has been in touch to discuss what is playing out in their caucus. “From the various things flying around, even they don’t know,” he said.

The episode was “not helpful”, he said, saying “the only thing that really matters” is progressing the legislation to replace the RMA.

Asked for a view on the decision today, he said: “Look, Christopher Luxon has foibles, like every person in every workplace with the possible exception of Mike Hosking.” But he had managed to “unite the coalition” and push through an ambitious reform programme.

“A prime minister who has a coalition that is actually ahead in the polls should be supported,” he suggested, “but I’m not in the National Party.”

Chris Penk has denied doing the numbers for Erica Stanford. Speaking to 1News, he batted away reports from earlier this morning that he was involved in a move against Christopher Luxon, saying: “Twenty-four hours ago, your story was different, which was that Richard Harman said that I was doing the numbers for Chris Bishop. I think everyone else needs to get these stories straight because I’m hearing multiple different versions, none of them are true, and as I said, I’m not prepared to disclose private conversations, except only to say I have confidence in Christopher Luxon.”

Asked if Luxon would survive a confidence vote, he said “I expect so”.

Mark Mitchell has rejected suggestions that he is in the mix for a new National regime. He told Mike Hosking he had “sat with the PM till about 11 o’clock last night … just, you know making sure that he’s in the best strongest possible position today”. Luxon was “a great prime minister for us through very difficult global times”, he said.

It was far from certain, Mitchell added, that a ballot would take place at this morning’s caucus meeting. “Everyone’s assuming that there’s going to be a vote and assuming this and speculating that and coming up with all these different scenarios. That’s what commentators do, and I accept that. But, you know, that’s exactly what it is. It’s all speculation.”

Hosking: “So if Luxon goes, you’re out, too?”

Mitchell: “Yes. Absolutely. I support the leader 110%.”

The Spinoff’s press gallery reporter here, signing in from parliament on what looks like a regular Wednesday, and feels like anything but.

At 9.30 this morning, National MPs will head to the party caucus room for a confidence vote on Christopher Luxon’s leadership. All eyes are on the National minister Erica Stanford, who looks to be the most likely to replace Luxon if he loses the confidence of his caucus.

It’s a recess week in parliament, and these MPs would typically be working from their electorates – Southland MP Joseph Mooney told us he’d rather be in Queenstown right now. Mooney also wouldn’t tell reporters whether he had confidence in Luxon. Touching down at Wellington Airport this morning, women’s minister Nicola Grigg told media that Stanford was a “very good friend” of hers, but “not a prime minister”. Other MPs have been more coy. Finance minister Nicola Willis, who is reportedly out of coup discussions due to her close relationship with Luxon, drove straight into parliament in her Mazda. And campaign chair Simeon Brown, who’s a bit sickly this morning, made his way into parliament in a Crown vehicle.

As for Stanford? So far, she’s nowhere to be seen.

Takanini MP Rima Nakhle took reporters with her as she walked into parliament this morning. She had a big statement prepared: burglaries and car thefts in Flat Bush are down by “50%”, and the new pedestrian crossing she opened alongside transport minister Chris Bishop at Te Mahia station yesterday will be “awesome for South Auckland”.

No word on whether she still supports Luxon “150%” as she had said previously, however. But you have to admire her style – it’s never been a better day to be a backbencher trying to get media attention.

Time is a-ticking. We’re coming up to 9.30am, which is when the clock strikes urgent caucus meeting o’clock.

What’s going to happen in that caucus room? It seems harder to pick now than it did a few hours ago.

Earlier today it looked like a fine morning for a coup. But clouds have gathered to rain doubt all over the parliamentary precinct.

Chris Penk has denied reports he was doing the number for Erica Stanford, and said he expected Luxon would survive any leadership vote. But wait, what if it’s Penk himself going for the leadership? That’s what sources are suggesting to Ryan Bridge.

Mark Mitchell, who has been named as a potential leader or deputy,  has called Luxon “a strong leader that’s brought us together”.

Stanford has remained silent, but who needs enemies when you have friends like Nicola Grigg? As she landed in Wellington for the caucus meeting, she told Stuff: “She’s a good friend of mine, but she’s not a prime minister.”

So, where are we at (looks at watch) at 9.29am? Confused. Intrigued. On high alert.

The National Party’s caucus meeting is meant to be underway, but the press pack are still waiting to see who will come across the tiles and speak to media on the way in. Only ministers Paul Goldsmith and Chris Penk have been spotted so far – either the rest of them are late, or they’ve taken the back door.

The biggest meeting of Christopher Luxon’s career is now under way in the caucus room. Gerry Brownlee told reporters there would be more to say after midday – meetings of this nature have been known to go for hours. The April confidence vote that Luxon survived went for about three hours, but that was considered relatively short.

While we wait, here’s the latest. The Herald is reporting that Luxon is not backing down and will attempt to “stare down” the coup, but both Erica Stanford and Chris Bishop are still angling to take his job – and there’s talk of Chris Penk throwing his hat in the ring too.

Heading into the caucus room at about 9.25, Paul Goldsmith told reporters that Luxon “absolutely” had his confidence and he was “annoyed” to be there, reports The Post.

As for what’s actually happening inside, there are various scenarios: there could be a formal confidence vote in Luxon or a challenge, which would mean a vote between Luxon and the challenger. The Herald is reporting that the latter scenario is likely.

We’re liveblogging this mad morning thanks to The Spinoff Members. We have Lyric Waiwiri-Smith at ground zero, AKA parliament, and a pack of political nerds at Spinoff HQ all over this story because of members’ generous support. 

Their contributions allow us to keep our coverage free for everyone to read.

If you’re able to chip in, please consider adding your support to our coverage by becoming a member.

As Christopher Luxon fights for his political life in the caucus room, a 1News Verian poll has just landed that has his favourability down a percentage point to 17% compared to the last poll in June.

If you think that’s bad, keep in mind he’s still ahead of Labour’s Chris Hipkins, who is down one to 15%.

As for Luxon’s alleged challengers, Erica Stanford is on 2% and Chris Bishop on 1%.

NZ First leader Winston Peters, meanwhile, is down three to 7%, following his controversial comments to Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan. The Greens’ Chloe Swarbrick is steady on 6%, while Act leader David Seymour is up one to 5%.

The poll was conducted from August 8-11 with a sample size of 847.

1News will be releasing the full results of the poll later in the day.

Fellow New Zealanders, gather, for we have a problem – a new one. Vietnam president To Lam is about to arrive in New Zealand and he’s due to meet with our prime minister.

You see the problem, right? Who is our prime minister? Will it still be Luxon by the time Lam’s plane lands in Auckland this afternoon?

I can’t be the only one who gets incredibly nervous at the thought of a visitor to Aotearoa being denied a warm welcome and hospitality. I’m thinking, perhaps we should just figure out a wee event for Lam in case original plans fall through?

Weather’s looking dicey as. Anyone got a covered deck so we could pull together a barbecue? I could head down to the butcher and grab a few packs of sausages, if someone else can do a potato salad.

Live from the halls of power: I have been sitting and waiting for something to happen for an hour and 24 minutes. In a direct obstruction to the fourth estate, the National Party has erected banners around its caucus room to avoid having journalists see who dips in and out. However, there is a window which looks directly into the hallway outside the room, so some reporters have set up shop there.

We’re not allowed to publish photos of said window, so I will describe it to you instead. It’s above a wall-mounted heater and looks over an indoor garden under a sky light – perhaps the only daylight the press gallery will receive for the rest of the day. As far as windows come and go in this place, it’s pretty picturesque. We’re currently watching an elevator through the window to see if it picks up a National MP. Wait, it’s rising – but, never mind, it’s just going to the Labour Party floor.

No National MPs have emerged, but Labour’s Damien O’Connor was caught slinking down the hallway where reporters are based. He had no gossip to share, but he did have bags of popcorn to hand out to journalists.

Everyone’s talking about whether Luxon can hold on, even the weekday host of the Breeze Classic, who, in a brief interlude between 70s bangers, said she understood the prime minister’s challengers were:

“Chris Bishop, who’s just a mess of a man, really, and Erica Stanford, who I really, really like. Anyway, KC and the Sunshine Band coming up.”

There has been some “movement”, according to reports, with Chris Bishop, Matt Doocey and Simon Watts seen chatting outside of the caucus room, and the prime minister’s security heading towards the caucus room.

Meanwhile, the Herald reports that the Beehive banquet hall is being prepped, not for a banquet but for a press conference. “It is unclear whether the conference is to proclaim prime minister Christopher Luxon as victorious or not.”

While we wait, here’s a quick stocktake of which caucus members have thrown their weight behind Christopher Luxon this morning and/or last night, and who among them have been more guarded. It’s ordered very loosely from most certain to a bit shaky.

Pretty solid

Dan Bidois:

“I back Christopher Luxon as the leader of the National Party 100%.”

Catherine Wedd:

“I’m 100% behind the prime minister and our caucus leadership.”

Mark Mitchell:

“I support the leader 110%.”

Todd McClay:

“He’s doing a good job, he’s an excellent prime minister, he has my 100% support.”

Nicola Grigg

“Absolutely… I think he’s the best man for the job.”

Melissa Lee:

“Definitely, I always have [supported Luxon].”

Tama Potaka

“Yes I support Christopher Luxon.”

Simeon Brown:

“Yes I support the prime minister.”

Shane Reti:

“Christopher Luxon has my confidence.”

Nicola Willis:

“I have confidence in Christopher Luxon.”

Paul Goldsmith:

“Absolutely” (when asked if he backed Luxon). “Of course” (when asked if he’d vote for him in a confidence motion).

Louise Upston:

“Of course I have confidence in the prime minister.” Asked specifically if she backed Luxon, Upston said, “I do.”

Matt Doocey: 

“I support the PM.”

Chris Penk:

“I have confidence in Christopher Luxon.”

Carlos Cheung:

“I always have full support for my prime minister.”

Katie Nimon:

“Absolutely.”

Penny Simmonds: 

Last night said she backed Luxon “100%”, but hasn’t commented this morning.

Tim Costley:

“I always back our prime minister.” But wouldn’t confirm whether Luxon specifically had his support.

James Meager:

Last night he said he “absolutely” had confidence in Luxon. This morning he wouldn’t comment.

Scott Simpson:

“Of course, yes.” But wouldn’t specifically say whether he’d vote for him in a confidence vote.

No comment

Erica Stanford, Chris Bishop, Cameron Brewer, Simon Watts, Gerry Brownlee, Stuart Smith and Tim van de Molen.

Who knows?

As far as I can tell, Mike Butterick, Suze Redmayne, Barbara Kuriger, Sam Uffindell, Miles Anderson, Andrew Bayly, Dana Kirkpatrick, David MacLeod, Grant McCallum, Greg Fleming, Nancy Lu and Vanessa Weenink have not been asked (at least in the past 18 hours or so) if they’re backing Luxon.

This just in: Christopher Luxon is set to speak at a press conference in the Beehive banquet hall at 12.35pm. We’ll cover it live here.

Christopher Luxon has held on to the leadership of the National Party after an urgent caucus meeting where he survived a confidence vote.

“There was a confidence vote in my leadership this morning at our caucus meeting and I have the full support of our caucus,” he said during a very brief press conference from the Beehive banquet hall, where he was flanked by senior caucus members including Erica Stanford (who was alleged to be challenging him for the leadership), Mark Mitchell, Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith, Nicola Willis, Simeon Brown and Louise Upston, as well as National Party president Sylvia Wood.

“Our caucus is united, and it is determined to win this election,” said Luxon. “Our focus is on National’s positive plan to fix the basics and to build the future so that we realise the incredible potential that sits in this country and that we set it up for our kids and our grandkids so they can do better than we can.

“We are going back to work,” he concluded, and left without taking questions. The press conference lasted just over a minute.

National caucus members are declining to reveal whether the vote of confidence in favour of leader Christopher Luxon was unanimous at this morning’s urgent meeting.

Chris Penk, who had been rumoured to be “doing the numbers” for Erica Stanford’s leadership bid and also to be gunning for the job himself, was tightlipped when reporters asked him if he had voted for Luxon.

Greg Fleming and Matt Doocey meanwhile, both confirmed they voted for Luxon to stay on.

NZ First leader Winston Peters, who had remained uncharacteristically quiet on National’s latest leadership dramas, has broken his silence with a relatively even-tempered post on X.

“After days of speculation and distraction it has boiled down to ‘much ado about nothing’,” he wrote. “We should be focussed on what New Zealanders gave us a mandate to do – turning this country around with policies and values that will give our country a better future – focussing on driving down the cost of living, cost of food, cost of power, cost of fuel, turning this economy around – and do it all with stability, experience, and hope.

He finished by echoing, perhaps unintentionally, Luxon’s description of the forthcoming election as “pivotal”: “This pivotal election is less than three months away and we need to give voters a clear and unified message – that we are going to win and make New Zealand great again.”

Labour leader Chris Hipkins, meanwhile, described National’s latest leadership troubles as a “circus”. “For three years we’ve watched Christopher Luxon lurch from one issue to another while ministers fight with each other, fight with their own agencies and fight with the people they are supposed to serve,” he said via a press release.

“Backstabbing and infighting just means more delay and more distraction for New Zealand. If National can’t govern itself, how can New Zealanders trust it to govern the country?”

The Greens made similar points in a press release, with co-leader Chloe Swarbrick saying, “As the National Party tussle about who should be in the top job, they continue to show their focus is on anything other than what matters to the people of this country.” Co-leader Marama Davidson added: “The problem isn’t just the party leader, the problem is the entire coalition and the choices they have made.”

In the wake of today’s confidence vote, MPs say they’re backing Christopher Luxon – 100%. But it’s not clear whether the vote itself was unanimously in the prime minister’s favour.

“We’ve had our meeting and we are 100% behind the prime minister Christopher Luxon,” Catherine Wedd told media. “We are 100% behind our prime minister,” Rima Nakhle echoed. Hamish Campbell, meanwhile, also reckoned he was “100% behind the prime minister”.

“We are 100% behind our leader,” said Dana Kirkpatrick, mixing it up ever so slightly. Luxon “has 100% confidence of caucus”, said Greg Fleming, not once but twice. “The caucus 100% supports him,” reckoned Tim van der Molen.

“Absolutely, 100% backing my leader Christopher Luxon”, said Nancy Lu. Tom Rutherford said Luxon had the “100% support of the National Party caucus”.

Matt Doocey and Greg Fleming still appear to be the only MPs who have publicly stated that they voted for him. “I voted for Christopher as I firmly believe he has what it takes to turn the country around,” said Doocey.

Speaking to reporters at Wellington airport, defence minister Chris Penk – who, remember, was allegedly “doing the numbers” for Erica Stanford and/or keen to challenge Luxon himself – has now joined his colleagues in professing the caucus has “100% confidence in Christopher Luxon”, adding that it’s “great to have clarity and certainty”.

Asked if he was confident of holding on to the defence portfolio, he said “ministerial portfolios are at the gift of the prime minister, so any other day I would say the same thing as I will say now, which is that those decisions are for the prime minister”.

Commerce minister Cameron Brewer, meanwhile, speaking as he got into his car at parliament, told reporters he was “so excited”. Pumping his fists in a video on The Post, Brewer said, “We’re re-emerged, relaunched and re-energised, and we’re going to win the election. It’s a great day for the National caucus.”

Prime minister Christopher Luxon has departed Wellington after surviving a confidence vote and declaring he has the full support of his caucus.

He didn’t answer reporters’ questions at Wellington airport but did say, “I’m really excited about this election. We’ve got a big mission and purpose, we’ve got to get this country turned around. That’s what we’re going back to work to do.”

Police minister Mark Mitchell, meanwhile, was more forthcoming and not as relentlessly positive as some of his colleagues. “We’d be naive to think we’re not going to take… we’re probably going to take a hit in the polls but I think the important thing is we bounce back now.”

He said there was a “serious feeling” in the caucus, “because I think that there was general recognition amongst all of us… that we’ve got a big responsibility to the country. He said today’s vote was an “unnecessary distraction and we didn’t need to have it and we recognise that”.

There was no truth to rumours that he was part of a ticket with Erica Stanford and Chris Bishop that was hoping to roll the current leadership team, said Mitchell.

“I believe in our prime minister, he’s very, very good. We’re lucky to have him in a world of uncertainty and global headwinds… I love being a minister in his cabinet because he backs me.

“In the National caucus we all like each other and the fact of the matter is some people might have different views at times and it’s important to be able to view those and that’s happened and we’ve now moved on and we’re working together as a cohesive team.”

Defence minister Chris Penk has been stripped of his ministerial portfolios in the wake of today’s confidence vote in National leader Christopher Luxon.

“Chris Penk launched a leadership challenge this week, which resulted in today’s confidence vote,” Luxon said this afternoon. “This makes his role untenable and as such I have removed his portfolios.”

It had earlier been rumoured that Penk was “doing the numbers” for Erica Stanford’s leadership bid, but Ryan Bridge of Newstalk ZB had said sources were saying he was going for the job himself.

Penk held the defence, building and construction, veterans, GCSB and NZSIS, and space portfolios. He was also associate minister for emergency management and recovery.

Paul Goldsmith will pick up the defence, veterans, space and GCSB and NZSIS portfolios. Simon Watts will become minister for building and construction.

After a diabolical few days, the Nats can at least take comfort in a new 1News/Verian poll, that has the party holding steady at 30%.

But Opportunity will be the party really celebrating, as it climbs 3% from the last 1News/Verian poll to 8%, putting it well over the 5% threshold it must reach to enter parliament for the first time.

Labour is down 2% to 30%, while the Greens are down 1% to 12%, but it’s NZ First that’s really suffering, down 3% to 8%.

Act fares the best out of the coalition parties, climbing 3% to 9%.

The poll was in the field between August 8 and 11, so would have captured some of National’s chaos.

We end this live blog, and slip off into the evening, in a strangely familiar place: Christopher Luxon is the prime minister and Nicola Willis is National’s deputy.

What a journey, only to end up right back where we began.

Thanks for travelling with us.

If you want to reminisce about what an absolute trip today was – and even try to make sense of what it all means – run your eyes over this analysis from Lyric Waiwiri-Smith: What will voters take away from Luxon’s two-day caucus crisis?

Goodnight.