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Steven Joyce on Gone By Lunchtime. Image: Tina Tiller
Steven Joyce on Gone By Lunchtime. Image: Tina Tiller

PoliticsAugust 15, 2023

The Steven Joyce guide to winning elections

Steven Joyce on Gone By Lunchtime. Image: Tina Tiller
Steven Joyce on Gone By Lunchtime. Image: Tina Tiller

From Mr Fix-it to Phone-a-friend, the former senior minister and brains behind five National Party campaigns shares his secrets.

Everything might have been different had it not been for Scott Morrison. 

Following a disastrous 2002 election that saw National plummet to less than 21% of the vote, Steven Joyce was appointed to the new role of party general manager. He travelled to Australia to observe the Liberals’ federal election campaign. “I took a lot of notes, copied the campaign structure diagrams, and noted the professionalism of the organisation and the structured approach they took to each day,” writes Joyce in his new memoir, On the Record. 

In the absence of any sufficiently qualified New Zealand contenders, Joyce met an Australian candidate for the role of National campaign director for the 2005 campaign, a “guy called Scott Morrison”, the Liberals’ New South Wales state director who had spent some time working for the tourism minister in New Zealand. A surprise victory for John Howard in Australia led to Morrison being approached for a soon-to-be-vacated federal seat, beginning a parliamentary career that would eventually take him to the prime ministership. 

“He would have been great,” said Joyce in an interview on the Spinoff politics podcast Gone By Lunchtime.  “But he got the call to stay in Australia … and about a year out, he said, I can’t do it. So we were sort of stuck, and Judy [Kirk, party president] was looking around, and said, how about you? And I’m like, oh well I’m not doing anything. This could be a fascinating challenge. Let’s do it.”


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That was the first of five campaigns that Joyce would run for National, with leaders Don Brash and Bill English bookending three John Key led victories. The first of those, in 2005, saw Brash surge into the front off the back of his infamous Orewa speech, before dwindling amid controversy around links to the Exclusive Brethren. 

Today, Joyce defends the divisive John Ansell-designed “Kiwi / Iwi” billboards. “People read more into that than was ever intended. They saw it as a derogatory thing, but actually it was intended as a sort of clever wordplay.”

Of the 2011 campaign, in which Phil Goff came a cropper in a clash with John Key when trying to defend, among other things, a pledge to remove GST from fruit and vegetables, Joyce said that was an example of the potential for debates to “provide catalytic points”. He said: “[Before] the Show Me the Money thing happened, we’d been banging away for some time about our concerns about what Phil Goff was promising, and feeling that it was very detached from the reality of where the country was, with the earthquakes and GFC and so on. On the surface, we weren’t getting a massive amount of traction with that. But it was building. And then John made that line in the Christchurch Press debate …and, job done. I mean, John didn’t know that was going to have the impact it did, I don’t think, ahead of time. But it worked. And he had the smarts to stop there. It was done. Debates allow for those moments.”

Good campaigns needed good plans, but it was equally critical to be sufficiently nimble to deal with the unexpected, said Joyce. “You’ve got to have a really good campaign system. Because there’s huge potential for the wheels to fall off in an election campaign. And one thing I learned from the Liberals when I went over there was they have a machine. Everybody knows their role. There’s a rhythm to the day and they rely on that rhythm … And that provides you with a scaffold for when things go wrong. And they always go wrong.”

They could go wrong in small ways, such as the time Tauranga MP Bob Clarkson dominated a day’s headlines after being televised discussing his need to “drain the spuds”, and bigger ones, such as Don Brash blurting on student radio about his conversations with the Open Brethren. “You just have to go: right, OK, here’s where we are, where do we go now?” he said. “You just need to be able to reassure your team that this isn’t the end, there’ll be another thing along tomorrow. And politics, as my friend Wayne Eagleson [Key’s former chief of staff] says, is not a game of perfect.”

The better known scatological moment in the Joyce archive involved a sex toy – or, to be definitionally accurate, a squeaky pecker – that was thrown by a protester at Waitangi. It bounced off his pate and went viral, culminating in an all-singing, all-dancing, all-dildo tribute from John Oliver on US television. 

The squeaky pecker and Steven Joyce.

“I could have just said, ‘right, well, that’s not good enough’,” he said of his response. “And when the police came and asked me about pressing charges, even though it’s their decision … I just thought that it was best just laughed off. Because it was sort of funny. And there is a part of me that is anarchic radio from way back … In student radio, we used to go around gifting cabbages to the general manager of 2XS and stuff. I think it was [best] not to take it too seriously. Because the world doesn’t need more of that sort of offense to be taken. And nobody got hurt. We dusted ourselves off and went on our way.” 

Today, it remains “constantly used on social media as a form of insult to me, which I find amusing, because I don’t think it was something I caused. … But if somebody wants to have a go at me on social media, they generally pick up a meme of that and throw at me.”

Having helmed campaigns that, even from opposition, channeled some optimism, in the “brighter future” coinage, what does he make of the National slogan “Get New Zealand Back on Track”? “Every election is different, and every situation is different,” he said. “And I’m assuming that worked out that a lot of people think the country has gone off track … There is a sense the country has gone off track somehow in the last five or six years, that’s shared by many people. And it was a successful campaign for Wayne Brown – in his own way, it’s a bit different to what the National Party is doing. But politicians respond to public concern, as a general rule.”

In 2017, the National plan was thrown off course by Labour’s 11th-hour leadership change. As Jacindamania dominated everything, Joyce realised he needed a big intervention. “As campaign chair I knew I had to do something to change the game, but what exactly?” The answer was the “fiscal hole”, in which Joyce held a press conference and declared – to a mixed response – that $11.7 billion was missing from Labour’s costings. 

Reflecting on that, and the recent re-emergence of fiscal hole rhetoric, would he now accept the case for an independent fiscal assessment unit? Not quite. “I think the risk is that it just adds another player. I would go and look at countries which have those things and ask, does that remove those debates in the UK and in the US? I’m not saying we won’t end up with one. But I just think people are probably a bit naive if they think that that’s going to solve the argument.”

As for the National Party’s self-immolation in the couple of years before the 2020 election, Joyce puts it down to inflated expectations and underestimating how exceptional John Key had been. “I don’t think it was inevitable at all,” he said. “The trouble is that sometimes in organisations, people think that anybody can be the leader. And … they’re also not as common as some people think. It’s actually a really tough job. And, obviously, too many people thought that they could do it … It looks easy. Suddenly, everybody thinks they can do it.”

These days Joyce plies the lucrative trade of consultancy, and stays for the most part out of National Party matters. He does, though, take the occasional call. “If anything I’d describe myself as a phone-a-friend.”

Keep going!
The potential gender makeup of the next parliament (Image: Archi Banal)
The potential gender makeup of the next parliament (Image: Archi Banal)

PoliticsAugust 14, 2023

Male and stale? Predicting the gender split of the next parliament

The potential gender makeup of the next parliament (Image: Archi Banal)
The potential gender makeup of the next parliament (Image: Archi Banal)

Ben McKay crystal-balls the caucuses and finds that on current polling, women are looking likely to lose out on both sides of the house.

Whether they win government or not in October, National is set for a big gain of MPs after the election. Does that mean their caucus will enjoy a big influx of women, of Māori, of LGBT representatives and fulfil Christopher Luxon’s goal of looking more like the society they hope to represent? Well, no.

Labour has a gender problem too. Their huge 2020 win delivered New Zealand a record number of women MPs – eventually a historic majority – as well as diversity in spades. Unfortunately, on current polling, it’s Labour women who will be leaving parliament as the Labour vote drops.

Candidate selection by the major parties is almost certainly going to produce a maler, and staler, parliament.

Let me start at the outset by saying this analysis will be wrong. There will be surprise electorate wins and losses, swings in the polls, and candidate shenanigans (like this all-timer) which mean the makeup of MPs won’t be known until New Zealanders vote for it. But with Labour completing its list rankings and National unveiling its candidates, if not a list, we can have an educated guess at where they’ll end up.

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— Staff writer

Fire up the predict-o-tron

Let’s set the scene. In the 2020 Ardernslide, Labour won 46 electorate seats to National’s 23. (That has changed since due to Meka Whaitiri’s defection and Gaurav Sharma doing a Gaurav Sharma, leaving Labour on 44 and National on 24.)

For the sake of this exercise, let's flip a bunch of electorates to be roughly in line with the current Spinoff polling average and just flat-out guess the Nats win 37 electorates to Labour's 30. Our assumptions here: Chlöe Swarbrick holds Auckland Central, David Seymour holds Epsom, Te Pāti Māori holds Waiariki, takes Te Tai Hauāuru and Meka Whaitiri brings Ikaroa-Rāwhiti over too. The rest are major party holds. Sorry Raf Manji, you've lost Ilam. And Brooke van Velden, you got close in Tāmaki but just missed out.

So Labour loses 13 seats to National. Let's assume they are the 13 most marginally held general electorates and flip the following:

Notice anything about those groups of candidates? Of the 13 likely National winners, they're retaining two male list MPs, bringing in eight new male MPs and just one new woman: Catherine Wedd in Tukituki. Noteworthy too is the makeup of the Labour losses: it's 11 women and two gay men. So Labour will also take a big diversity hit should this group exit parliament.

Let's now add the winners of the marginal seats to the existing National electorate MPs, who we'll presume all hold their seats given the swing to the Nats.

  • East Coast Bays - Erica Stanford
  • Kaipara ki Mahurangi - Chris Penk
  • North Shore - Simon Watts
  • Whangaparāoa - Mark Mitchell
  • Botany - Christopher Luxon
  • Pakuranga - Simeon Brown
  • Tāmaki - Simon O'Connor
  • Papakura - Judith Collins
  • Port Waikato - Andrew Bayly
  • Coromandel - Scott Simpson
  • Hamilton West - Tama Potaka
  • Taupō - Louise Upston
  • Waikato - Tim van de Molen
  • Bay of Plenty - Tom Rutherford
  • Rotorua - Todd McClay
  • Tauranga - Sam Uffindell
  • Taranaki-King Country - Barbara Kuriger
  • Rangitīkei - Ian McKelvie (retiring, replaced by Suze Redmayne)
  • Kaikōura - Stuart Smith
  • Selwyn - Nicola Grigg
  • Waimakariri - Matt Doocey
  • Waitaki - Jacqui Dean (retiring, replaced by Miles Anderson)
  • Southland - Joseph Mooney
  • Invercargill - Penny Simmonds

Of the 37 electorate MPs, there will be eight women, or 21%: Catherine Wedd, Erica Stanford, Judith Collins, Louise Upston, Barbara Kuriger, Suze Redmayne, Nicola Grigg, Penny Simmonds.

The next piece of the puzzle is determining how big National's entire caucus will be, and we'll keep running with those polling averages, plugged into the Electoral Commission's wonderful MMP calculator.

Image: MMP calculator, electorates.nz; total MPs emphasis added by The Spinoff

That means National is going to end up with 46 seats, and on our workings, will bring nine MPs off their list. Given they don't have a list yet, let's work that out for them. As a starting point, let's bring in the five MPs that are currently ranked in the party's top 20

  1. Nicola Willis (2)
  2. Paul Goldsmith (5)
  3. Melissa Lee (13)
  4. Gerry Brownlee (15)
  5. Michael Woodhouse (17)

Another two women join the caucus: deputy leader Nicola Willis and Melissa Lee.

Now we get into very choppy waters. National is yet to do its list, but they have another three list-only candidates: Agnes Loheni, Nancy Lu and James Christmas. You'd imagine they weren't selected to be stocking-fillers at the bottom of the pile. Christmas and Loheni even get ministries in Audrey Young's fan fic National-Act cabinet piece. So let's give them all jobs, along with another sitting MP: Harete Hipango. Hipango forfeited the chance to stand in her old seat of Whanganui to instead run in the Māori electorate of Te Tai Hauāuru where National stands no chance. You'd imagine she would have only agreed if she would be rewarded with a high list ranking. Party sources deny this, but we're running with it for now.

  1. Agnes Loheni
  2. Nancy Lu
  3. James Christmas
  4. Harete Hipango

So that's it. The final result would be, in the 46-strong National caucus, 13 women, or 28%. Congratulations to Nicola Willis, Melissa Lee, Harete Hipango, Agnes Loheni, Nancy Lu, Catherine Wedd, Erica Stanford, Judith Collins, Louise Upston, Barbara Kuriger, Suze Redmayne, Nicola Grigg and Penny Simmonds. Commiserations to the sole current member of National's caucus who is standing again but doesn't back get in based on this speculation: Maureen Pugh.

It's not representative despite Luxon's desire – as reported by Claire Trevett in the NZ Herald – for a 50/50 gender split. In fact, on 28%, National may head backwards. The current caucus is 34-strong, with 11 women. That's 32%. The 54-strong caucus before the 2020 election had 19 women, or 35%.

There are other National women that have been preselected to winnable seats. Two are Napier's Kate Nimon and Dana Kirkpatrick in East Coast, both of whom aren't facing incumbents due to the resignation of Stuart Nash and Kiritapu Allan. If they get in, they'll dislodge two others from the list. In any case, Luxon is going to be well short of his 50-50 goal. But he is not the only major party leader with a women problem.

Nicola Willis and Christopher Luxon (Image: Tina Tiller)

Let's now turn to Labour and run through its likely 40-strong caucus. We've given them 30 electorate seats: so let's assign the 26 general electorates with their biggest margins and their four Māori seat holds:

  • Te Tai Tokerau - Kelvin Davis
  • Tāmaki Makaurau - Peeni Henare
  • Mount Albert - Helen White
  • Mount Roskill - Michael Wood
  • New Lynn - Deborah Russell
  • Kelston - Carmel Sepuloni
  • Te Atatū - Phil Twyford
  • Panmure-Ōtāhuhu - Jenny Salesa
  • Māngere - Lemauga Lydia Sosene
  • Manurewa - Arena Williams
  • Takanini - Neru Leavasa
  • Hauraki-Waikato - Nanaia Mahuta
  • East Coast - Tamati Coffey
  • Napier - Mark Hutchinson
  • Palmerston North - Tangi Utikere
  • Whanganui - Steph Lewis
  • Wairarapa - Kieran McAnulty
  • Mana - Barbara Edmonds
  • Remutaka - Chris Hipkins
  • Rongotai - Fleur Fitzsimons
  • Ōhāriu - Greg O'Connor
  • Wellington Central - Ibrahim Omer
  • Te Tai Tonga - Rino Tirikatene
  • West Coast-Tasman - Damien O'Connor
  • Wigram - Megan Woods
  • Christchurch Central - Duncan Webb
  • Christchurch East - Reuben Davidson
  • Banks Peninsula - Tracey McLellan
  • Dunedin - Rachel Brooking
  • Taieri - Ingrid Leary

Labour will elect 10 off the list to get to their predicted 40 MPs – so let's give them away to the top 10 in their list that don't win electorates. We don't get very far. Returning to parliament are:

  1. Grant Robertson (4)
  2. Jan Tinetti (6)
  3. Ayesha Verrall (7)
  4. Willie Jackson (8)
  5. Willow-Jean Prime (9)
  6. Adrian Rurawhe (11)
  7. Andrew Little (12)
  8. David Parker (13)
  9. Priyanca Radhakrishnan (15)
  10. Ginny Andersen (17)

The top MPs to miss out: customs minister Jo Luxton at 19, rising star Camilla Belich at 26 and well-liked whip Shanan Halbert at 28. The new partyroom has just a handful of new faces: Reuben Davidson in Christchurch East, Fleur Fitzsimons in Rongotai and Mark Hutchinson in Napier, who is no sure thing given Stuart Nash's departure and the post-cyclone challenges.

Labour's gender split? Well they take a hit from their current 56% (35 of 62), and fall down to 47.5% (19 of 40). The impact is clearer when you consider who is losing out as Labour falls back to earth: the number of women in Labour's caucus falls by 16, whereas just six blokes lose their gigs.


We've come this far, so let's complete the exercise.

Under the poll average, Act is winning a bumper 17 MPs, that will include Brooke van Velden, Nicole McKee, Karen Chhour, Parmjeet Parmar, Laura Trask, Antonia Modkova and Toni Severin. Seven women, or 41% of its caucus.

The Greens are tipped to win 12 MPs, returning Auckland Central's Chlöe Swarbrick, and bringing Marama Davidson, Julie Anne Genter, Lan Pham, Golriz Ghahraman and Hūhana Lyndon in off the list. Six women, or 50%.

Te Pāti Māori will win five seats, and while they haven't unveiled their list, they feature just six candidates on their website, and all but Rawiri Waititi are women. Let's give them four women MPs, or 80%.

In all, the class of 2023 will have 49 women – 41% of the house, compared to just over 50% currently. The only party to have a smaller proportion of women than that, and substantially smaller, will be National. That is, unless Luxon grabs his party's as-yet announced list and shakes it up to meet his own gender goals.