The launch closed with yellow and pink confetti.
The launch closed with yellow and pink confetti.

PoliticsSeptember 17, 2023

Act launch derailed by Angry Fence Man and physical assault on media

The launch closed with yellow and pink confetti.
The launch closed with yellow and pink confetti.

David Seymour emerged in a plume of smoke at the Civic in Auckland, but before long he was putting out fires. 

“Thank you for being here, for participating in democracy,” said David Seymour, his voice a little husky, perhaps as a result of the plume of smoke that announced his arrival on stage and dissipated into the Civic Theatre starscape as he spoke. “And thank you for participating in Act’s largest ever gathering, reflecting our strongest campaign performance … Today we set out on the last leg of a long journey.”

After that stirring beginning, things were thrown swiftly off course. Just over three minutes in, a familiar face from the self-described “freedoms movement” was on his feet in the first of three interruptions, the latest episode in this campaign in which candidates unable to attract a crowd decide instead to commandeer someone else’s. 

The attention-seeking might have been relegated to the nether parts of tonight’s news bulletins were it not for what happened next: as reporters moved to record and photograph the protest, a handful of overzealous Act supporters lashed out at media, with one camera operator reporting he had been struck in the face. 

Asked about the incident during a noisy press conference surrounded by Act supporters in the foyer bar, Seymour rejected the idea that his rhetoric had any link to what had happened. “I’m someone who has had public meetings up and down this country for many years,” he said, “and fielded questions critical of media, and tried to actually foster some respect and understanding of the challenges that media face. So I think while I find those actions reprehensible as you’ve reported them to me, I think to try and politicise those actions, when it’s actually a person that’s done something wrong is [unfair].”

After the media standup, Seymour approached the Newshub cameraman to ask what happened. “I fell into the seat next to them and they pushed me in the face,” he said. The individual had been identified, he said. Seymour asked that those details were passed on to the party. “We would like to know who it was. I’m really sorry about that. It’s totally unacceptable.” 

Angry Fence Man Karl Mokaraka is removed from the Civic.

The altercation, in which several Act supporters berated media and struck cameras with placards, followed the interruption of Seymour’s address by Angry Fence Man, aka Karl Mokaraka, who stood on his seat in the third row and declared, “I’m the man on the fence”, before unleashing a tirade spanning everything from South Auckland underrepresentation to morality to BlackRock Investments. 

As anyone who has attended events at the Civic will tell you, it is a magnificent place, but it’s also a bit of a squeeze in the stalls – and it took as long as 10 minutes for security to remove the protester, the recognisable Visions NZ candidate who drowned out a Chris Hipkins visit to Ōtara Markets and hijacked a Christopher Luxon media conference by comically popping up from behind a fence like a jack-in-the-box. Seymour persisted with parts of his speech, at other points improvising in response to the heckler. 

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He later said extensive security measures had been put in place, but said he would be seeking answers as to how “a person who has a bit of form in this area” – an easily recognisable individual from previous protests – had evaded their attention. Mokaraka’s “disguise”, it later became clear, involved a pink tie, a flat cap and a false moustache. 

Even before the intrusions the event was muted in comparison to the party’s “Real Change Now election year rally” – an event widely described as the campaign launch – 15 weeks ago. Then, Act filled the 650-capacity SkyCity Theatre at $50 a seat. Today, we were told the crowd was bigger, given the altogether larger Civic, but only the downstairs was required, and there were plenty of empty seats despite free admission. At the earlier rally, Seymour had appeared on stage in a yellow Suzuki Swift; today it was in a puff of magenta smoke. 

David Seymour speaks to media.

In truth, Act has been campaigning for three years, as reflected in a clip played at the start of today’s launch, with Seymour telling supporters at his election night party in 2020 that as well as celebrating electoral success, “this is our 2023 election campaign launch.” He would much have preferred not to be opening his media conference after the event with a reference to the unplanned scraps that blighted the event. 

“While there’s been some incidents that I believe are deplorable and far from our values, and some disruptions that show people do not want to have real, healthy, honest debate, what this day has shown is a huge number of people are hungry for real change of direction,” he said. 

Seymour chose as the policy centrepiece of the actual launch a reiteration of Act’s commitment to ending co-governance – a term the party uses interchangeably with the more provocative assertion of “co-government” – as well as a commitment to a binding referendum inviting a vote on legislation that would ensure, he said, “the principles of the Treaty are based on what the Treaty actually says, in contrast with recent revisionist interpretations of the Treaty’s principles”.

Christopher Luxon has ruled out a referendum on the Treaty principles, and today Seymour said he hadn’t had any recent discussions with the National leader about the issue. “But we do have regular catch-ups, and we have discussed these issues in the past. We will make this a priority in any post-election negotiations.”

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PoliticsSeptember 16, 2023

Poll: Wellington Central on a knife edge with three candidates almost tied

FeatureImage_WellingtonCentralPoll.png

Wellington Central just got spicier than a level 4 sando from Soul Shack.

A Newshub Nation poll released this morning has the high-profile electorate of Wellington Central in a three-horse race, with all major candidates within the margin of error. Labour’s Ibrahim Omer is on 30.6%, National’s Scott Sheeran is on 28%, with the Green candidate Tamatha Paul narrowly behind on 26.6%. 

It’s the first time Wellington Central has had a competitive race since 1996, when Act’s Richard Prebble won and we all received the gift of this country’s greatest-ever political documentary, Campaign.

Ibrahim Omer and the Labour Party will be relieved to be holding onto first place, but this poll should set off alarm bells. At 31%, Omer is down 26 points compared to incumbent Grant Robertson in 2020. It’s a perilous position for a candidate in a supposed safe seat.

Labour candidate Ibrahim Omer

Omer is a highly respected list MP, but winning the electorate is likely his only way to hold onto a seat in parliament his year. This year he’s at number 37, which on current polling makes him unlikely to make it back to parliament via the list. His private member’s bill to criminalise wage theft by employers was one of the most impressive legislative accomplishments for a first-term MP. His history as a refugee who worked as a cleaner while studying at Victoria University is probably the best personal story of any candidate in any seat. 

But he hasn’t proved himself to be a natural campaigner. His appearance with Chris Hipkins at the Harbourside Market was awkward; he relied on his more extroverted leader to introduce him to voters. He’s highly personable in one-on-one settings but isn’t as strong of an orator as either of his opponents. So far, he’s been playing Mr Nice Guy in the debates and attempting to stay out of the fray while Sheeran and Paul attack each other. That tactic might not be viable for much longer. 

The big winner from this poll – and the reason the race just got interesting – is Tamatha Paul. She’s polling third, but this officially proves she’s in winnable territory. The 26-year-old Green Party candidate has name recognition from her role on council and a highly excited base of volunteers. Her campaign will actually be disappointed by this result. Internally, they think they are the favourites to win and will have expected a better showing. 

Wellington Central Green candidate Tamatha Paul. (Image design: Archi Banal)

If Paul does go on to win this race, this poll result could prove to be significant. Third party candidates have to jump an additional hurdle to convince voters they aren’t just an exciting outsider, but actually capable of winning. This poll proves the race is anyone’s game. 

There’s an obvious comparison to Wellington mayor Tory Whanau. The only public polling released during last year’s campaign had her at 26%, two points behind early favourite Paul Eagle and six ahead of incumbent Andy Foster. But that poll helped shift voter perception that Whanau was an underdog candidate, leading to a late swing. Whanau ultimately won in a landslide, with more votes than Foster and Eagle combined. 

Chlöe Swarbrick benefitted from similar polling in Auckland Central in 2020. She never topped a single poll – the final one two weeks before election day still had her behind both the Labour and National candidates – but those polls may have helped sway soft Labour voters by proving she was a viable candidate. 

National candidate Scott Sheeran

It’s a strong showing from Scott Sheeran – his 28% would be the best result for a National candidate since 2014. He has been impressive on the campaign trail. He’s quick-witted in the debates (although he has already made far too many jokes about sharing a surname with Ed Sheeran), and is winning over the business-friendly Chamber of Commerce crowds. 

He seems like a sure bet to be a minister in some future National government, but not many people would have picked a National candidate to have any chance in Wellington Central. With the left-leaning vote split between Omer and Paul, he may have a slim path to victory. 

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— Wellington editor