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(Photo: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
(Photo: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)

PoliticsOctober 19, 2020

Where to now for Winston Peters and New Zealand First?

(Photo: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
(Photo: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)

With only 2.7% of the vote, NZ First will not be returning to parliament this time. But as Winston Peters’ former researcher Josh Van Veen writes, the party’s legacy is too enduring for NZ First to be gone for good.

Ambition and ideals are at the heart of politics. More often than not they conflict. What is good for one’s political career may not be good for the conscience. It is the ability, or inability, to reconcile these two poles of motivation that defines a political leader. In the case of Winston Raymond Peters, I believe history will judge that he did better than most. New Zealand First is the successful embodiment of both his ambition and ideals. But it represents a lot more than just that.

The party was born out of a deep-seated frustration with Labour and National in the early 1990s. Both were perceived as betraying what, for many, was “the New Zealand way of life”. It was characterised by fairness and equality of opportunities. Anyone who worked hard was entitled to the fruits of their labour, but those who fell on hard times would be cared for. In those days, politicians were as much social workers as lawmakers. The government was there to serve the needs of ordinary people first and foremost.

As a 1954 National Party pamphlet advertised, New Zealand was a “land of plenty, from which fear and insecurity have been banished.” That was the world in which Winston Peters grew up and began his political journey. But during the 1970s, these fortunate isles were undermined by historical forces. Globalisation meant we could no longer insulate ourselves from the rest of the world. Peters’ mentor Sir Robert Muldoon fought against change but lost. New Zealand was exposed to global capitalism and the government became more removed from our daily lives.

Winston Peters delivers the budget in 1998: A smiling Treasurer, Winston Peters delivers the 1998 Budget in the House of Parliament,Thursday. (Photo: Ross Land/Getty Images)

The fourth Labour government transformed the country with its neoliberal economic agenda. For the educated middle-class, it was a time of unbounded freedom and growth. But many New Zealanders felt a sense of loss or alienation. Whole communities were destroyed, the social fabric ripped apart. Equal opportunities for education and employment were promised by the elite but never came. Māori in particular suffered the most. Those on pensions and other benefits were treated as a burden by the state.

In the 1990s Peters became a voice for those forgotten people. The left will never admit it, but he has been a powerful and effective advocate for social justice. Policies such as the “GoldCard”, free doctors visits, and regional development aren’t transformational but they can make a difference to those on the margins. That is part of the reason why some 60,000 still voted for NZ First in 2020 despite a media narrative that it was finished. They are the “true believers” Peters spoke to throughout the campaign.

Outgoing MPs Fletcher Tabuteau and Tracey Martin are the quintessential true believers. They have been with NZ First since the party’s inception. It will be an enormous source of pride for Peters that both were able to serve in government under his tutelage. He knows that if the party is to survive him, it needs experience and credibility in the halls of power. Tabuteau and Martin can now offer that, should the party return.

But there are many others like them. The last time NZ First was in the political wilderness, a cohort of young members brought new energy and ideas. Activist and blogger Curwen Rolinson became spokesman for the party’s nascent youth wing. For a time, Rolinson was close to Peters and had a significant influence on the 2011 campaign. Although he is now estranged from the party, Rolinson’s legacy was the formal establishment of Young NZ First in 2015.

In recent years the leading light of the youth wing has been 24-year-old Robert Gore, the party’s candidate for New Lynn. An eloquent speaker, Gore has done more than anyone else in NZ First to articulate a coherent vision of the future. Another asset to the party is digital strategist and businessman, Oliver Woods. In reflecting on its loss the party may question why it underutilised Gore and Woods during the campaign. Both understand that no political party can rest on its laurels forever. When they contest the 2023 general election, NZ First will need to inspire young and old alike with the promise of something different.

At 75, many anticipate Peters to finally leave politics. Dr Jon Johansson, his outgoing chief of staff, is reported to have written a valedictory speech. But it is worth remembering that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden turns 78 next month. For now, at least, there is no reason other than ageism to dismiss the notion of Peters running in 2023. If the party membership is willing to rally behind him then he may well do it. With nothing left to prove, Peters’ main motivation would be ideals rather than ambition.

But the question of leadership succession is inevitable. Of his likely immediate successors, Tracey Martin is the most plausible. The 56 year old would have both the profile and credibility to make a strong debut. Her innate understanding of the party, its philosophy and constituency, means she has conviction. That she is perceived as left-leaning would also be a strength. Although it is too soon for a definitive analysis, there is strong evidence from polling that NZ First lost more than a third of its 2017 voters to Labour. They will need to be won back.

A liberal feminist, Martin may even broaden the party’s appeal with women. After all, there is an important distinction between the cultural conservatism of NZ First and the moral conservatism of the New Conservatives. The former is about preserving heritage and respect for national symbols. It seeks a New Zealand identity that celebrates what we have in common rather than divides us. In NZ First, this has led to a marriage between old liberal values and a progressive nationalism.

Despite the glib analysis of some commentators, NZ First is a political party rich in history and meaning. There is no other like it. In the next three years many voters may come to recognise this. Those who voted Labour but dislike political correctness and worry about racial separatism will miss having a voice in government. Whether it is Peters or Martin standing on the debate stage in 2023, expect NZ First to be there.

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PoliticsOctober 19, 2020

Looking at New Zealand through the lens of the US

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With calamitous US politics stoking fear and division in an already fraught nation, the New Zealand election makes for a calm and refreshing change. 

The front page of the New York Times today reads: “A Regulatory Rush by Federal Agencies to Secure Trump’s Legacy,” referring to the mad rush to pass Trumpian legislation before the end of the term.

The New York Post, however, leads with “Fearful New Yorkers plan to flee city on Election Day: ‘People will go nuts’”.

On television, Fox News leads with “Hearing Footsteps: Biden campaign warns against complacency in memo: ‘Donald Trump can still win this’ ” next to a doomsday clock counting down to election day.

Meanwhile, CNN has gone for dual headlines, with equal sized titles blaring out “These 10 states reported their highest number of new coronavirus cases on Friday,” next to another which says “The legal reckoning awaiting Donald Trump if he loses the election”. Double whammy. 

I can go on and on. But this is a simple snapshot of America in the final two weeks leading up to the most impactful American election in modern history. It has been this way for much of the last year, but the polarisation, fear mongering, and mudslinging is ratcheted up to the extreme depending on where you live and how you get your information.

Seeing this election cycle play out is like a train wreck in slow motion, where the rails are being bent and warped by the triple forces of climate induced weather extremes, a pandemic, and an historic economic recession all at once. 

I moved to Washington DC in August of last year, and every day has been like this, or worse. Imagine living in this pressure cooker for years with no end in sight. No wonder voter turnout is near record lows, and political engagement is falling off a cliff. Americans are worn out by the entire political process. It is crushingly tiresome, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s campaign now 400 days long! It is rife with scandal, real and imagined. And in the world’s most advanced democracy, the active use of voter suppression measures, much of the process is downright illegal. 

It is easy to bash America and forget how incredibly large, complex, and young the country is. After all, this country is an experiment between 50 different states and 330 million people, each with their own distinct demographics, history, and identity. But it is also clear that much of the polarisation, the political and legal structures, and rampant misinformation is also an instrument of America’s own making.

I do not think a Biden victory will be the cure-all to America’s many illnesses. A vehement and vocal faction of Trump’s Republican Party will be around for many election cycles. And traditional Republicans will need to find their way in the post-Trump years, because right now, they are sycophants to the cult of Trumpism. For the Democrats, a centrist-minded Biden White House will need to contend with the influential far-left faction of his party. American politics will get much uglier before it gets better. 

When I attended my first Thanksgiving with some American friends, the only rule was “do not discuss politics”. That went without saying, as it was clear how divided the country had become. I had heard stories of how some of my classmates do not bring up politics and are not mutual friends with their family members because of their political affiliations. 

Meanwhile during the lockdown, on virtual hangouts with my family and friends back in New Zealand, we all talked eagerly about the different policies heading into the election, and the fortunes and misfortunes of the different parties. We all had different leanings, but we could discuss the issues without fearing someone would throw their wine glass at the screen.  Watching the New Zealand election campaign, filled with substance, humour, and conducted in good faith, it made me realise how precious that is. Although the US is presently an example of how not to conduct politics, we have seen that in many countries, developed and developing, how election cycles can stoke the fires of tribalism, dividing the electorate into economic and ethnic divisions. In that maelstrom, much of the substantive policy is lost. This weekend, New Zealand has set an example for the world, showing that politics does not have to be so divisive,  where – in the words of the Prime Minister – we don’t tear one another apart. Living far away from home, the contrast between New Zealand and the rest of the world is remarkable. I am one of the few people in the US right now that if told to “go back to your own country” my response would be “gladly!”

But that is not to say that New Zealand is immune to the same elements of conspiracy, division, and dog-whistles. More than 55,000 voters cast ballots in favour of Advance New Zealand and the New Conservatives (almost equal to New Zealand First). As we move on from this election, it is important to keep those voters and their views in mind, because if cast adrift, those sentiments can easily metastasise into what ails America, and much of the world.

So regardless of who you voted for in this election, and how your party did overall, the key takeaway is that we have it damned good in New Zealand, and it’s on us to keep it that way. 

Kia ora, New Zealand.

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