The former MP and American politics obsessive talks to Toby Manhire with just a handful of days to one of the most important votes of all time.
With the American election just a few days away, the contest is on a knife-edge and the result could spell “disaster” for New Zealand, says fomer MP and self-confessed US political nerd Todd Muller.
Best known as a former minister and for a short, tumultuous time the leader of the National Party, Muller has been a committed student of American politics since he was a child. These days he co-hosts a podcast called What’s the Story, Old Glory, alongside Elizabeth Soal, which is presently focused on the hurly-burly starring Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the leadup to the presidential election on November 5 (which for practical purposes means November 6 in New Zealand). Recent pod guests include Scott Brown, the former senator and Trump appointee as ambassador to New Zealand.
The election might seem strange and distant, but it is of major consequence for New Zealand, says Muller. “What you want from a New Zealand perspective is consistent, predictable leadership from America,” he said, speaking to The Spinoff for a special edition of the politics podcast Gone By Lunchtime. “My personal view is that Trump, from a foreign policy perspective, is just too unpredictable. You just do not know what he’s going to say or do on any given day. There’s no rationale or consistency, or, in my opinion, strategic thinking behind how he operates. That is a real worry, because of that likely vacuum of America turning inward, if Trump wins, and becomes more protectionist.”
He points to Trump’s warning that he could level tariffs of up to 2,000% on China. “Even if you discount the rhetoric of that, that is not in New Zealand’s interest. If we’re going to see the big powers enter into a more protectionist and trade-war kind of environment, it’s a disaster for us as an export-orientated economy. And so that these things matter, right? And you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone. And you know, we’ve had this period post-war of stability, which has benefited New Zealand immensely, and a world that is upended by a president that spends more time attacking Europe than he does Putin is not good for us.”
Muller is no fan of Trump, despite once attracting heat after a Maga hat was pictured propped on a shelf alongside other souvenirs in his office in a Spinoff profile. But he thinks the Republican is at least an even chance of winning a race that polling suggests could hardly be tighter. “Look, if you’re looking at polling, I think Trump will do it, because over the last three or four weeks in those seven swing states, what were slight margins for Harris have been eroded,” he said.
“And so if you’re looking at trends of polling, the trend is in his direction. Now, the counter is the ground game [and] it’s all about getting your turnout, your base out. Is Harris’s ground game going to be sufficient, door-to-door, getting people in particularly, say, a city like Philadelphia, to actually turn out on an election day? Is that going to be sufficient to counter what I think is momentum marginally in Trump’s favour? If I had to put a dollar on it, I’d say Trump by a nose.”
Muller’s fascination with American politics began after he was absorbed in a US encyclopedia as a child in 1979. For a time he even entertained, in defiance of the constitution, the idea of becoming US president. That ambition fell away but the broader fixation continued. New Zealand politics was never what excited him most – his twin obsessions instead were and are “American politics and Bay of Plenty rugby”.
These days he’s not paying much attention to domestic politics at all, and feeling good for it. Parliamentary politics is “just so all-consuming”, he said. “You give your heart and soul to it, regardless of your political persuasion, and when you leave you realise that it certainly took its pound of flesh … I’m thoroughly enjoying my new life, and I’m still totally interested in politics, but US politics, as opposed to New Zealand politics.”
Does any part of him regret his decision to quit parliament at the last election? After all, he would very likely be climate minister or agriculture minister or both. “No, not even the tiniest of the tiniest part of me,” he said. That was the right decision for me. And, you know, I’m loving the new life.”
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