A test ballistic missile in the South Pacific was fired into the South Pacific with only hours of notice, writes Henry Oliver in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.
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Yesterday, China launched a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the South Pacific Ocean, carrying a dummy nuclear-capable warhead. Chinese state media Xinhua reported the People’s Liberation Army Navy fired the missile at 12.01pm, with it landing “precisely within the designated waters” of the Pacific, the NZ Herald’s Jamie Ensor reported.
China described the test as a “routine arrangement” of annual training, not directed at any specific country – the same language used after a 2024 launch. The missile landed in waters that fall within the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone established by the Treaty of Rarotonga. New Zealand was informed only hours before the launch took place.
‘Deeply concerning’ – Winston Peters
Foreign affairs minister Winston Peters issued a statement yesterday afternoon describing the test as “deeply concerning” and “unwelcome”. “Earlier today, China informed us of its plans to launch a long-range ballistic missile into the South Pacific,” he said, as reported by The Post’s Henry Cooke. “It appears that despite our long-standing concerns about this type of activity, China carried out the test within hours of informing us.”
Peters was unambiguous that the launch breached the spirit of regional agreements: “This missile was fired into the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone established by the Treaty of Rarotonga. China’s action goes against the object and intent of that Treaty.”
New Zealand will raise the matter with Pacific partners, Peters said, and continue monitoring the situation in close coordination with regional allies.
A new alliance
According to a report by 1News, Australia joined New Zealand in condemning the test, with Australian foreign minister Penny Wong labelling the launch “destabilising for the region”. “Australia has been clear that this proposed test is in the context of a rapid military build-up by China, which is lacking in the transparency and reassurance as to intent that the region expects,” Wong said in a statement.
The test coincided with Australia signing a mutual defence treaty with Fiji, part of a broader effort to secure security alliances across the Pacific. According to RNZ’s Lillian Hanly, Christopher Luxon confirmed New Zealand was interested in potentially joining the Australia-Fiji alliance: “New Zealand being in early would be a good thing, because you would have an ability to ultimately determine which other countries could join from across the Pacific.”
Asked whether joining might antagonise China, The Post reported that Luxon declined to engage with the premise, saying only that in the event Fiji were attacked, “Australia has said that they now have an ally relationship and they would backstop them, and vice versa.”
Not the first wake-up call
The missile test is the latest in a series of Chinese military assertions in the Pacific: in February 2025, Chinese warships conducted live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea, forcing airlines to change flight paths and prompting then-defence minister Judith Collins to call it a “wake-up call.”
According to the Herald, in September 2024, China fired a dummy warhead into the Pacific – the first in 44 years – which Luxon later raised directly with President Xi Jinping at the Apec summit in Peru, calling it “a concern for many of us in the Pacific.” Collins said at the time the launch site was roughly equidistant from New Zealand as from Kiribati. “It didn’t have a warhead on it, but it could have,” she said. “It was very concerning.”
