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The takahē was chosen for an avian influenza vaccine trial (Image: Getty)
The takahē was chosen for an avian influenza vaccine trial (Image: Getty)

The BulletinMay 8, 2024

How the lessons from Covid-19 could help us prepare for bird flu

The takahē was chosen for an avian influenza vaccine trial (Image: Getty)
The takahē was chosen for an avian influenza vaccine trial (Image: Getty)

Stewart Sowman-Lund looks at the growing concern around the world in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

What’s all this?

When Covid-19 arrived on our shores in early 2020, some argued we were too slow, or crucially, ill-prepared for a pandemic. So today we’re going to take a look at bird flu (or highly pathogenic avian influenza), the threat it could pose to New Zealand, and how we can be ready for its possible arrival. On The Detail this week, reporter Marc Daalder said bird flu – also known as H5N1 – looks to be the most likely illness “that could potentially become a pandemic or an epidemic among humans”. That’s because the latest mutation of the virus has made the jump to cows in the United States (and various other mammals elsewhere), and appears to be transferring directly between cattle without the involvement of an infected bird. That poses a possible threat to us, too. So far, there’s at least one case of a human contracting the disease after contact with cattle. All of this is rather unexpected, infectious diseases researcher Richard Webby told RNZ. “It’s almost like the Crusaders losing five in a row. Had you asked me six weeks ago what the chance [was] of finding this virus in cows, I would have said none. So it’s a completely new event for us.” While bird flu hasn’t reached our shores, Otago University professor Jemma Geoghegan explained in this Newsroom Q&A that Oceania is the last continent that’s yet to see a case. “Every time the virus gets into a mammal, it gives it an opportunity to evolve and get better at infecting mammals. This is something scientists… are closely monitoring,” she said.

Are we at risk?

According to Geoghegan, the risk of person-to-person transmission has increased because the virus is now spreading from cow to cow – and cows, like us, are mammals. But there is no evidence of this happening yet. This piece from The Conversation explains why the risk to humans – at this point – is low. But that doesn’t make the threat any less worrying, as Richard Rennie wrote in this opinion piece for Farmers Weekly. “Up until now bird flu has seemed a few steps removed from the human health risk,” he said. “But with it jumping to humanity’s main milk source, the risks not only to human health but to economic wellbeing are considerably sharper.” The most obvious sign of H5N1 is dead birds or wildlife, which people should avoid touching. As Crux reported, the Ministry of Primary Industries has been investigating the cause of death of 100 birds in Wānaka, ultimately ruling out avian flu. Nevertheless, it signals the heightened awareness of the disease, even if it hasn’t reached our shores. In the rare instances avian flu has made it to humans, the mortality rate is reported to be 50%. If it does arrive in New Zealand, Biosecurity NZ would lead a coordinated response with the Department of Conservation and the Ministry of Health.

What about our wildlife?

Clearly, given the name of this virus, our native wildlife is at even higher risk. “This highly contagious viral infection can affect all species of birds both wild and domestic,” notes DOC in an article about the disease. “It is likely to affect colony nesting birds such as red and black-billed gulls, gannets, terns and other seabirds.” DOC’s ecology technical adviser Bruce McKinlay told The Bulletin that vaccination could be an effective tool during an outbreak. Five native species have been selected for an avian influenza vaccination trial, due to their “critical conservation status and reliance on captive breeding for species survival”. These are the: kakī (black stilt), takahē, kākāpō, tūturuatu (shore plover), and red-crowned kākāriki (as a surrogate species for kākāriki karaka/orange-fronted parakeet). “The trial began in January and vaccinations have now been completed for all five species,” McKinlay said. “The birds are all in good health, and none have shown any adverse reactions to the vaccine.”

The lessons from Covid-19

It’s unsurprising, given it’s less than three years since our last pandemic lockdown, that comparisons between Covid-19 and bird flu are being made – there remains heightened awareness of any illness. In one piece, on Forbes, it’s noted that the decades-long knowledge of bird flu should mean we’re better prepared for a worst-case scenario. But also in the US, Politico has warned that hospitals may have failed to learn the lessons from the last pandemic. Otago University’s Jemma Geoghegan told The Bulletin we can learn a lot from Covid-19. “One is that we had to massively ramp up our workforce across all areas in a very short amount of time,” she said. While we cannot continue this level of capacity during the “inter-pandemic” period, she added, we risk losing specific skills if capabilities aren’t maintained. It was also important to maintain strong collaborative links between universities, Crown Research Institutes and government agencies as people from across different sectors bring unique expertise. “We established many of those collaborative links during Covid and they should be valued and maintained.” There’s also the issue of a human vaccine. The Herald’s Jamie Morton (paywalled) wrote that this would be easier than during the Covid pandemic, as most developed nations, New Zealand included, have stockpiled doses closely matched to avian flu.

While we’re here, some Covid news

Tony Blakely, chair of the Royal Commission into New Zealand’s pandemic response (which you can read more about here), provided an update on the inquiry yesterday afternoon. He made two points of note. Firstly, a clarification on the extent to which vaccine effectiveness forms a part of the inquiry. In short, he said it would be difficult to consider the use of mandates without also looking at vaccines overall. “The ethical case for – say – vaccine mandates is stronger if vaccines also stop transmission,” he wrote. Looking at the efficacy of the vaccine was a pledge inked into the coalition deal between National and NZ First, as this Newshub report from last year explained. Blakely also signalled that future public engagement could be in the pipeline if the government does opt to alter the terms of reference, as it has previously indicated it might. Before the weekend, the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan reported that Pharmac and Health NZ were considering the future of vaccine accessibility and whether funding would continue – though no changes are imminent.

Keep going!
(Image: Getty Images)
(Image: Getty Images)

The BulletinMay 7, 2024

Messy press conference prompts correction over Corrections funding

(Image: Getty Images)
(Image: Getty Images)

It took a post-post-cabinet statement to confirm that 810 new beds will be built at Waikeria, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

‘A shambles of missing numbers’

We’re just a few weeks out from budget day, which means the focus on the economy is especially heightened. As is the focus on numbers, of which the government appeared to struggle with during a particularly messy post-cabinet press conference last night. What should have been a fairly straightforward pre-budget announcement about support for Corrections instead drew headlines – like this from Newshub – focusing on the government’s “worst performance” at a press conference. “Journalists left there confused – worried about what to report because nothing was clear and in fact, nothing they said was right,” said Jenna Lynch on last night’s 6pm bulletin. Stuff’s Tova O’Brien was slightly more generous, labelling it “confounding”. The Spinoff’s Joel MacManus was there too, and told me as much. “It was a relatively simple announcement that turned into a shambles of missing numbers, unclear funding, and recycled campaign rhetoric,” he says. So what happened?

A billion dollar boost 

Restoring law and order was a key pillar of National’s election campaign, so they’ll be kicking themselves that some of the attention has been on the delivery of the announcement, and not the announcement itself. The Herald has the key details. In short, Corrections minister Mark Mitchell confirmed a $1.9 billion boost for his agency. Of that, $442m comes from cost savings identified by Corrections as part of the government’s efforts to find “back office” savings in the public service. The remaining $1.5b was new money.

Mitchell said the funding would ensure the government could deliver an 810-bed extension to Waikeria Prison, along with 685 new Corrections staff. But that’s where things got confusing, as both Mitchell and the prime minister struggled to accurately articulate what was “new”, and how much had already been pledged by the previous Labour government. The Post’s Anna Whyte and Thomas Manch reported that confusions over the number of new beds “dominated the announcement”. RNZ’s Jo Moir and Craig McCulloch said Luxon and Mitchell contradicted themselves when trying to explain the correct details. One area the pair handled well: Getting rid of slushy machines was a “low priority”.

A Corrections correction, and where the confusion lay

Opening Morning Report today, Corin Dann said they’ll “try to get to the bottom” of the new announcement. Let’s do the same. In 2016, the last National government pledged 1,500 beds would be built at Waikeria. In 2018, then Corrections minister Kelvin Davis said the Labour government would instead build a new 500-bed high-security prison, with an attached 100-bed mental health unit (so 600 beds all up). Many watching along yesterday would have been left with the impression that yesterday’s announcement falls somewhere in the middle, with the government boosting Labour’s plan by 200-ish beds. Instead, as a statement sent through to media from the government later clarified, there will indeed be 800 new beds, with Waikeria to boast capacity of 1,865 beds all up by the time the extension’s been completed. What went wrong? There were simply “a lot of numbers” in the ministers’ heads, a Beehive source told Tova O’Brien.

While we’re talking budget, AAP’s Ben McKay has comments from Nicola Willis confirming there will be a boost for both defence and foreign affairs on May 30. As he notes, that’s sure to please our international allies.

State of the economy in the spotlight

Yesterday’s pre-budget announcement came shortly after the government was praised for its cost saving drive – and issued some warnings. A new biennial report from the OECD was released, highlighting the state of the economy. It’s timing is unfortunate for the government, just weeks out from the budget, though there were few surprises. BusinessDesk (paywall) has the key details, reporting that the OECD put government spending over the last few years in the spotlight, noting that spending increases sometimes lacked a clear explanation. And it suggested creating a fully independent body to assess the cost of policy proposals from political parties. That’s an idea that is regularly floated, especially in the lead-up to elections, as this report from RNZ’s Craig McCulloch last year showcased.

Economist Shamubeel Eaqub told The Bulletin that the OECD’s recommendations boiled down to a request for “more consistent evidence-based policy – something that we struggle with very much”. So what could the government be doing?

Government urged to fully fund tax cuts

Two key findings were latched onto by the media. Crucially, ahead of budget day, the government was warned against borrowing to pay for its promised tax cuts, as the Herald’s Jenée Tibshraeny explains. Instead, any tax cuts should be “fully funded” and come from spending cuts or new revenue sources. Last month, finance minister Nicola Willis promised no extra borrowing would be needed to deliver tax cuts. While Willis welcomed the OECD’s insights on Monday, she said the government did not agree with every suggestion – one of those almost certainly being the call for a capital gains tax. The NBR has more on that here (paywalled), noting that a recent International Monetary Fund report also urged New Zealand to introduce a CGT. Asked about this in parliament last week, Willis said: “I can confirm there are three things that are certain in this world: death, taxes, and the IMF recommending a capital gains tax.” This piece from Interest.co.nz looks at the IMF and its “groundhog day” recommendation for a CGT. Politik’s Richard Harman examines how the OECD put Willis “between a rock and a hard place” here with some of its recommendations.

Another major suggestion, as explained by The Post, was to break up big businesses – including New Zealand’s supermarket duopoly. Eaqub told The Bulletin that this was a “big call”, though something that New Zealand’s done in the past such as for telecommunications. Willis told RNZ’s First Up today that the government was “very supportive” of market competition, and was keeping a close eye on it.

Finally, in other sad news for Big Supermarket, The Spinoff’s Joel MacManus explains how Foodstuffs lost a legal challenge to stop a new cycleway outside their store.

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