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The BulletinJanuary 15, 2025

Treaty bill submissions have closed. Now what?

The Bulletin editor
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David Seymour has welcomed the huge amount of public interest in his controversial proposed law, explains The Bulletin’s Stewart Sowman-Lund.

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An outpouring of interest

Submissions on the controversial treaty principles bill closed yesterday afternoon, following an extension triggered by technical issues that crashed parliament’s website. While the finally tally of online submissions on the bill won’t be known until tomorrow, it’s almost certainly going to break records. The Post’s Anna Whyte reported that more than 300,000 submissions were made online prior to the deadline being extended, meaning the final number will be well in excess of that. In addition, thousands of hard copy submissions were delivered to parliament. David Seymour, the bill’s architect, told Stuff’s Glenn McConnell that the public response was a good thing. “Even people who don’t support my bill appear to be supporting the idea of mass participation in what the Treaty means in 2025. I think that is very, very exciting,” he said.

The path from here

So what happens next? The justice select committee will meet on Thursday to decide how it goes about handling the vast number of submissions. This will include deciding how to deal with submissions made using template forms provided by groups both in favour and against the bill to make providing feedback quicker. As soon as is possible, accepted submissions will be released to the public. The committee will also decide how to hear oral submissions, with these expected to be wrapped up by the end of next month. Not everyone who requested the chance to share their feedback in person or on Zoom will be able to do so, however. Justice committee chair James Meager, reported The Herald’s Adam Pearse, said that the committee had “received more requests for oral submissions than we will be able to accommodate, so only a small proportion of submitters will be able to be heard from”.

Speaking to The Spinoff’s Toby Manhire last year, Meager said the select committee intended to treat the submissions on the bill as it would with any other piece of proposed legislation, despite the fact it is destined not to pass its second reading. “It is still, I think, worth having the conversation when it comes before us and treating it with the respect that you treat any other piece of legislation.”

The committee is due to report back following consultation in May.

Surge of submissions on regulations proposal

More Reading

Meanwhile, a wave of late submissions were also delivered ahead of the release of another bill also championed by Act leader David Seymour. The Regulatory Standards Bill doesn’t even exist yet, and yet close to 23,000 submissions were received on a discussion document intended to inform the drafting of the bill, reported RNZ’s Lillian Hanly. There has been increased awareness of the future bill as it’s drawn into the orbit of the treaty principles bill, noted Hanly. Many of the submissions – around 80% – came in the final four days of the consultation period. The Spinoff’s Lyric Waiwiri-Smith has a good explainer on the proposed bill this morning, noting that some see the bill as a natural companion to the treaty principles bill. Lady Tureiti Moxon, chairwoman of the National Urban Māori Authority, has argued the proposed bill poses “a dangerous direct threat to Te Tiriti o Waitangi and the rights of Māori”.

It’s not Act’s first attempt at having a regulatory standards bill become law, but due to its inclusion in the coalition agreement with National, this time it will pass.

Arms Act ‘rewrite’ up for consultation

If you’re wondering if there are any other controversial proposed law changes open for consultation, well, you’re in luck. The government’s intended rewrite of the Arms Act is open for submissions, reports Farmer’s Weekly, and will run through until the end of next month. Responses to the Ministry of Justice discussion document will help inform the government’s planned law update. Associate justice minister Nicole McKee said the government wanted to ensure that New Zealand had a “fit-for-purpose regime” for controlling firearms, with “public safety and simple, effective regulatory processes at its heart”. As of last year, McKee wouldn’t rule out trying to re-introduce semi-automatic firearms outlawed in the wake of the Christchurch mosque attack.

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Tina Tiller / The Spinoff
Tina Tiller / The Spinoff

The BulletinJanuary 14, 2025

Murky economic outlook sets the scene for the year to come

The Bulletin editor
Tina Tiller / The Spinoff
Tina Tiller / The Spinoff
newsletter

Further interest rate cuts are coming, but why does everything still feel so bleak? Stewart Sowman-Lund explains for The Bulletin.

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It’s the economy, stupid

Yesterday we looked at three big issues set to dominate a lot of the year – and this morning we have more of those big picture calls. The Spinoff’s published its predictions for what will suck up air time in politics in 2025, and unsurprisingly, there’s a lot of talk about the state of the economy. “We have a structural deficit. It has to be solved. There are no painless solutions,” wrote Eric Crampton, chief economist at the New Zealand Initiative. “The economy, stupid,” said founder of The Spinoff, Duncan Greive. “The whole theory of the coalition is that they’re the parties of business, that they understand how to make lines go up. The rest of the Anglosphere is somewhere between cautiously positive and flying, while our economy is falling apart. It needs fixing, and fast.”

Business community concerned

It all contributes to what can broadly be described as “bad vibes”. It may now be almost five years since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, but the economy and the cost of living remains a dominant, though easing, concern among the public and, according to new research, the business community as well. The Herald’s Chris Keall reported yesterday (paywalled) that 77% of senior managers identified economic uncertainty as the primary threat to their organisation over the next 12 months, compared to just 13% last year. Respondents from larger firms were more likely to be optimistic about the year ahead, the survey found.

In a Q&A for the Herald, new EMA chief John Fraser-Mackenzie was similarly pessimistic. “Even with lower interest rates and the economy recovering, it will take time to rebuild balance sheets before there is any meaningful investment in growth,” he said. The government has identified that economic growth has to be a focus this year, intending to open us up to further foreign investment. Finance minister Nicola Willis told the Herald’s Thomas Coughlan (paywalled) that the goal was to “have more invested here in industries and projects that will drive growth and development”.

Interest rate cut coming next month

From the outside, it feels slightly confounding that the economic outlook and the general mood remain so gloomy while interest rates have been on a downward trajectory. The Reserve Bank has been widely picked to make a further 50 basis point cut to the official cash rate next month, and indeed governor Adrian Orr signalled as much during the November update. However, that may now be a line call. As BusinessDesk’s Rebecca Howard explained yesterday (paywalled), a weakening New Zealand dollar coupled with a strengthening US economy (and a new president waiting in the wings) may prompt our central bank to go with a more cautious option in February. “The anticipated 50 basis point cut… should not be considered a done deal,” BNZ senior economist Doug Steel said. “Indeed, we think there is much more chance of a 25 than a 75.”

The NBR’s Nicholas Pointon has a good write-up on our current economic situation, for subscribers only, explaining that as a general rule countries with higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment, increasing demand for that country’s currency compared with those offering lower rates.

Consumer spending muted

Meanwhile, in more unwelcome news for businesses, consumer spending growth was at its lowest level in five years in 2024, reported RNZ. Data showed that consumer spending through retail merchants, excluding hospitality, rose just 0.8% last year, while the average transaction declined by 0.6%. While transaction numbers may have been marginally up, payments company Worldline said the annual underlying spending growth was the lowest in the last five years. As noted by The Post, while there was the traditional flurry of pre and post-Christmas spending, it wasn’t enough to push spending above levels seen in major cities a year earlier – December spending was down 0.7% on 2023. Hospitality businesses also suffered, reported Worldline, with total spending down 2.7% on the year before.