Both major parties are tied on 28% in the latest 1News-Verian poll, while the Greens have hit a record 16%. The left bloc could form a government, but only if National sticks to its refusal to work with Opportunity, writes Henry Oliver in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.

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The latest 1News-Verian poll has the Greens at 16%, up four points and their best-ever result on that poll, beating their previous high of 15% in July 2017. 1News reports that would give them 19 seats.

Labour and National are tied on 28%, with Labour down two and National down one. ACT is on 11%, up two; NZ First on 9%, up one; Opportunity on 6%, down two; and Te Pāti Māori on 1%, steady. 13% of voters did not know or refused to say.

The poll modelled two scenarios based on how many electorates Te Pāti Māori wins – either four Māori seats plus one for Mariameno Kapa-Kingi’s Te Tai Tokerau party, or just one electorate seat for Te Pāti Māori. In both, Opportunity holds the balance of power. If Christopher Luxon stuck to his ruling out of working with Opportunity, the left bloc would be expected to form a government.

‘Pretty cool, isn’t it?’

“Pretty cool, isn’t it?” Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick told 1News. “But look, I say the same thing whether the polls are up or down, which is that we shouldn’t just watch the polls, but realise that New Zealanders have agency.”

She said the party was taking nothing for granted, and that the party has room to grow further. “In order to do that, we are going to need to have portfolios the likes of finance, energy, state-owned enterprises, climate change, and so on.” Asked directly whether she wanted those roles, she said she had made clear the party needed to focus on “the levers that will actually change things.”

Swarbrick also rose two points to 8% in the preferred prime minister rankings, putting her third behind Luxon on 19% and Chris Hipkins on 14%.

Opportunity in the middle

Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong described 6% as a “solid base of support” and pitched her party as the vote for stability. “If people really want to see a stable next government, then they need to party vote Opportunity,” she told 1News. She said the result showed “real discontent for the major parties, a lack of ideas about how we tackle our big issues.”

On working with the Greens, Swarbrick told RNZ there was values alignment in some areas but “maybe a little bit of divergence when it comes to the willingness to allow corporations to kind of write the rules.”

David Seymour was similarly coy about Opportunity. “We don’t mind who we need to work with, notwithstanding there’s a few that are non-starters,” he said, before saying it was “very hard to know what you’re getting with them” and calling the party “a bit naive.”

Poll of Polls: change more likely than not

The Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls, updated yesterday, points the same direction. Thomas Coughlan and Chris Knox report that a coalition of Labour, the Greens, Opportunity and Te Pāti Māori now has a 43.2% chance of being able to form a government, narrowly ahead of National, Act and NZ First on 42%.

The model assumes no overhangs, which could prove consequential as Te Pāti Māori and some government coalition supporters are deliberately trying to cause one by splitting their vote.

On this run of the machine, National sits at 29.4% and Labour has fallen to 26.9%. The Greens are on 12.1%, NZ First on 11.8%, Opportunity on 8.5%, Act on 8.3% and Te Pāti Māori on 2%.

But, if Luxon ruled Opportunity back in, the four parties would have a 99% chance of forming a government. His refusal is currently the difference between a comfortable majority and a coin toss.

‘The polls are trash’

Luxon, whose preferred prime minister rating rose two points, was unmoved by the party numbers. “The only poll that matters now is November the 7th,” he told 1News. He framed the choice as “Labour and their radical mates with six leaders and nine new taxes up against National with no new taxes and a long-term plan.”

Hipkins said he would not discuss deals before election day. “I’m not having conversations with any other parties about policy concessions or policy agreements until after everybody’s had their chance to have their say,” he said, adding that “only Labour can lead a change of government.”

Peters, whose NZ First rose a point according to the 1News poll, was as blunt as ever: “The polls are trash.”