As we enter the “Are dinosaurs real?” phase of the campaign, here’s how the advance voting tally stacks up.

Yesterday 115, 458 people voted, bringing the total number of advance votes cast to 722,713.

That’s just over 43% down on the tally for October 9, 2020 but just over 31% up on the same date for the 2017 election.

The orange line below shows how early voting compares with recent elections.

That’s it from me for another day, unless of course news breaks in which case we will be back online.

Remember: at 7pm tonight you can stream The Press multi-party debate live from Christchurch. In front of an audience of 2,000 people, leaders David Seymour, Marama Davidson, Winston Peters and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer will face-off for the final time before October 14.

And here are today’s top reads from the campaign.

• The Winston Peters glossary: A Gen Z writer attempts to figure out what the NZ First leader is talking about.
• Grant Robertson hits back at latest claims of fiscal hole.
• Policies in two minutes: The small business policies and the transport policies.
• The Port Waikato byelection, triggered by the unexpected death of an Act Party candidate, will be held on November 25.
• The latest in our door knocking dispatches: Chris Bishop on his most interesting campaign moments in Hutt South.
• And finally: Does Christopher Luxon believe in dinosaurs? Guy Williams wants to know. (Luxon has since said yes, and named “TaxReliefosaurus”).

As we count down to October 14, The Spinoff live updates asked a collection of MPs and candidates from across the political spectrum for their favourite door knocking story from the election campaign. Today: senior National MP and Hutt South candidate, Chris Bishop.

Door knocking often produces interesting experiences. I’ve had been invited in to help give feedback on someone’s Toastmasters speech, to join a raucous party out the back, and to participate in “wine and cheese Friday”.

One guy talked to me while cleaning his teeth, toothbrush in hand.

On another occasion I was asked to choose the next song on a playlist at a Sunday session party – and then to stay and help them finish the keg.

I’ll leave it to Guy Williams to explain.

During a Covid-induced “kid’s town hall” event last week, Chris Hipkins was also asked whether he believed dinosaurs were real. The question allegedly came from a young child but I’m becoming increasingly suspicious it was Guy Williams.

The Port Waikato byelection, triggered by the unexpected death of an Act Party candidate, will be held on November 25.

“Following consultation with other political parties I’ve confirmed November 25th as the by-election date,” prime minister Chris Hipkins said. “Everyone was of the view it should occur at the earliest possible time.”

The deadline for candidate nominations to be received will be midday on October 20.

As explained here, the Electoral Act requires that a byelection be held following the death of a candidate during the advance voting period. Port Waikato locals are encouraged to still vote in the upcoming general election as their party votes will be counted as normal.

Labour’s finance spokesperson Grant Robertson has hit back at claims his party severely under-costed key pillars of its financial plan.

Nicola Willis, National’s finance spokesperson, alleged an “endless debt spiral” in Labour’s fiscal plan and suggested its GST and dental plans would cost an extra $736 million over four years.

But Robertson has rejected this.

Here’s a statement from Robertson provided to reporters:

“Oddly National have not costed our dental policy. They’ve costed something else. National has used household dental spending data from Statistics New Zealand. However, we don’t include all dental work and we’re proposing to fund it on a capitation basis, like GPs. Ours is the same as the Ministry of Health’s independent costing of free basic dental care. Govt sets the capitation rates so it’s a fixed cost based on uptake. More shoddy work to try and distract from their shoddy work.

“We have conservatively costed our GST policy on the assumption that all of the savings from removing GST get reinvested into buying more fruit and vegetables (so there’s no revenue offset from this ‘second-round effect’) – that would be a 15% increase in our fruit and vege intake as a nation! National has endorsed a claim by the Taxpayers Union that predicts a similar increase in fruit and vege (slightly higher at 17%, which would make minimal difference fiscally)

“But, once again, National and its associates have made basic maths errors – they’ve effectively double-counted: increased the current GST-inclusive expenditure on fruit and veg by a bit over 17% which would mean the actual GST-free expenditure would go up a whopping 36% and would mean people cutting significantly on other types of food. Nobody, including the TPU, is claiming that would actually happen but that’s what their numbers say and that’s what would be needed to make their alleged ‘blow-out’ add up. So the only hole is in their fiscal credibility – again!”

There are just four days until polls close, but Labour leader Chris Hipkins has teased a late in the game appearance by his predecessor Jacinda Ardern.

Last week, in the face of poll results showing New Zealand First would be needed to prop up the right bloc, National rolled out former PM John Key. He appeared in a social media video encouraging people to vote National, and later turned up on TVNZ’s Breakfast with a similar message.

Helen Clark also cropped up in a video for Labour – but the party’s most recent and, at least for a time, most popular leader has yet to appear in the lead-up to the election.

Hipkins told TVNZ he expected Ardern would make an appearance this week. “I think we’ll see a little bit more of Jacinda in the next few days. She’s obviously in Boston, so the timezones make that a bit more challenging,” Hipkins said.

Last week, Ardern shared on Instagram that she had cast her advance vote from the United States and encouraged her followers to do the same.

On election day, The Spinoff will once again be bringing you nothing but live pupdates until 7pm. In 2020, we showcased big dogs, small dogs, long dogs, short dogs, hairy dogs, happy dogs, nervy dogs, silly dogs, stylish dogs, sleeping dogs, pissing dogs and not-really-dog dogs exercising their democratic right – and we’d be barking mad not to do it all over again.

That’s right, dogs at polling booths is back for another year, so on October 14, we’re asking you to send in your photos of dogs at voting places around the motu (no humans please) to info@thespinoff.co.nz.

While we’re focusing on on-the-day dogs, we will consider any particularly fetching advance-voting dogs, especially if they’re voting from abroad.

So please remember to get in touch!

With just four days to go, here’s a look at where the party leaders are today.

• In Wellington, Labour leader Chris Hipkins has a busy schedule of walkabouts and sign waving. He’ll start in Waikanae before heading to the Coastlands shopping centre in Paraparaumu. After fronting for media, he’ll head down the coast to Petone before finishing the day in Wellington Central.
• National’s Christopher Luxon is starting the day in Nelson with a dairy visit and then a walkabout. Later, he’ll make a policy announcement in Blenheim, speak to media and then head across the Cook Strait for a campaign rally in Wellington.
• Green Party co-leader James Shaw is making coffees in Wellington this morning, before heading to the launch of a fundraiser campaign this afternoon. Marama Davidson is in Christchurch ahead of tonight’s Press multi-party debate. This morning she’ll visit the World Homeless Day street art.
• And a reminder about that debate: it’s at 7pm and will be streamed on the Stuff website. It’ll see representatives from the Greens, Act, Te Pāti Māori and New Zealand First face-off for the final time this campaign.

It’s Monday evening in Gaza and CNN is reporting that the Gaza Strip appears to be under heavy bombardment. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement that it had attacked 130 Hamas targets in Gaza with airstrikes. Following the largest attack by Hamas against Israel in decades, where 1,300 people, including more than 800 Israelis and some 500 Palestinians, have now been reported dead, AFP is reporting that Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told visiting officials from southern Israel, that “what Hamas will experience will be difficult and terrible” and that “this is only the beginning… we are all with you and we will defeat them with force, enormous force”.

Al Jeezera is reporting that Israel has announced a total blockade of the Gaza Strip, with the Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant issuing a video statement saying, “We are putting a complete siege on Gaza… No electricity, no food, no water, no gas – it’s all closed,” he said.

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The finance spokespeople of Labour and National are continuing to lob attacks at one another over their respective tax plans.

Labour’s Grant Robertson accused National of needing to cut $3 billion in public services to fund its fiscal plan, with 6,000 jobs on the line.

“The hole in National’s fiscal plan means they need to cut far more than they have admitted. This will result in deep cuts to jobs and the services New Zealanders rely on,” he said.

“At any point over the last 40 days National could have explained how their plan stacks up as economists and commentators have highlighted huge gaps in it. There’s only one explanation why they’ve chosen not to do so: it simply does not add up.”

These cuts were “significantly greater” than what the party had been publicising, Labour leader Chris Hipkins told RNZ.

Nicola Willis, National’s finance spokesperson, told Newstalk ZB this claim was “just wrong” and was more “desperate stuff” from the Labour Party. “[It’s] the sad spectacle of a finance minister with no record to run on who’s never kept to a single spending commitment he’s made,” she said.

In return, Willis fired back and claimed Labour’s fiscal plan would instigate “endless debt spiral” with an extra $736 million over four years needed to fund the party’s GST and dental plans.

“Treasury has warned that Grant Robertson has blown his spending allowances by an average of $600 million a year, because he is simply unable to maintain fiscal discipline,” she said.

“This paints a bleak picture for New Zealand’s books, with debt rising every year and the Crown accounts never getting back to surplus. By 2027/28 debt would be $7 billion higher than in Labour’s uncorrected fiscal plan. All of this is before Labour agrees to the spending plans of the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.”