Live coverage of the major earthquakes off the east coast and the Covid-19 lockdown. Civil Defence advice is available here. Auckland is now at alert level three, NZ at level two. Get in touch at stewart@thespinoff.co.nz 

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6.00pm: Alert level change should have been brought forward – Collins

Judith Collins has questioned why the alert level changes could not have been brought forward, saying “National sees no good reason why Auckland can’t shift to level two on Saturday and the rest of the country shift to level one”.

The leader of the opposition said: “I’d like to thank Aucklanders for their sacrifice to keep the whole country safe from Covid-19, particularly all the public health workers who performed thousands of Covid-19 tests and other critical tasks, as well as everyone who came forward to get tested. Business owners and their employees also deserve special mention for putting their operations on pause and their livelihoods on the line once again.

“In the absence of any evidence that it would be dangerous to do so, we think these businesses should be spared the multi-million dollar hit of remaining closed on Saturday.” 

The CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber, Michael Barnett, meanwhile, said the shift was “an acceptable staging post [but] with five straight days of no new community cases the preference is to join the rest of the country at level one at the same time”.

He added: “I am gutted for those businesses in hospitality, retail, accommodation and events who are losing tens of thousands of dollars weekly who will not be able to operate normally for at least another week but have to believe the prime minister when she says that ‘it will get better’.”

5.45pm: Events back on as alert level change confirmed

America’s Cup racing will begin with the first of two races in Auckland from 4pm on Wednesday, and again on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday 15th and daily until one team has seven wins. The cricket T20 double header will now go ahead with a crowd on Sunday. The latest information about events in the Auckland Arts Festival is here.

The Auckland Pride Festival said in a statement it was hopeful that it would be able to hold its last events, a ball and pool party, should Auckland move to alert level one by the end of next week.

4.00pm: Auckland to move to level two, rest of country to level one, at 6am on Sunday

Auckland will move to alert level two at 6am on Sunday, with the rest of the country dropping down to level one, the prime minister has announced. Cabinet will review the decision at the end of the week, with the view to move Auckland to level one by the start of the weekend.

Ardern issued a reminder that level two is “not business as usual”. “Still keep your distance in public, and if you can’t, carry a face mask with you,” she said. A restriction of 100 people at group events will be in place, and this will apply to church services.

“It is completely natural to feel fatigued,” added Ardern. “Covid is hard work, for everyone. Thank you for pushing through, once again.”

Asked why Auckland can’t go to level one immediately, Ardern said, “We still have the remainder of a transmission cycle.” While cases in the latter part were less likely, “we still want some level of restriction and caution in place”.

More contacts may still test positive; Section 70 notice issued

Speaking after Ardern, director general of health Ashley Bloomfield said, “It is possible we may still get positive results from some of the contacts, but it’s important to note that these people remain in isolation so a positive result does not pose a risk to the community.”

Bloomfield issued a Section 70 notice under the Health Act to anyone who has been advised they are a close, close plus or casual plus contact of the current cluster, and anyone who attended City Fitness on February 20 between 11.15am and 1.45pm, or February 26 between 3.25pm and 4.30pm.

The following requirements are issued: “To isolate at their usual home. To report for and undergo medical testing for Covid-19 … and to remain isolated until they receive further direction from a medical officer of health.”

The order means those affected can be “visited immediately at their home or place of work by a public health official”, said Bloomfield.

For more on why that Section 70 order is significant, see this post from law professor Andrew Geddis.

Two people who were at the gym at the earlier time have not been found by contact tracers yet, said Bloomfield. This was the visit before the infected person became symptomatic, he added. “They will be found.” There are a further eight test results outstanding from contacts from the gym, but they have been tested or are getting tested.

Ardern on rule breakers; Bloomfield praises community

On those who have not complied with Covid-19 restrictions, Ardern said she didn’t believe anyone had “gone out to deliberately act against advice”.

“I have never wanted to see a pile-on on anyone,” she said, but didn’t answer the question of whether she would apologise to Case L, who went to work when she was supposed to be isolating, but said she’d never been told she should be.

Ardern said she stood by the decision to bring Auckland back to level one relatively soon after the Valentine’s Day lockdown. “Unfortunately the breach that occurred that set off the chain of events took place at level three,” she said.

Bloomfield heaped praise on the Papatoetoe community for their response to the outbreak, acknowledging he was a glass half full kind of person, but in this case it was “98% full”.

“Remarkable and rapid progress has been made, and we would like to thank in particular the community around Papatoetoe High School,” he said.

Vaccine delivery roadmap coming; Resurgence Support Payments total $63m so far

Ardern said that over the next week she will be laying out a roadmap for the Covid-19 response across the next year and vaccine delivery.

On a shipment of the AstraZeneca vaccine to Australia being blocked by Italy, Ardern said it was concerning. On a call to French president Emmanuel Macron this morning, Ardern said she raised her deep concerns. “It comes from a position of principle,” she said.

Ardern said that as of 9am this morning, 32,625 applications for the Resurgence Support Payment had been received, comprising a total of $88.4 million. So far, $63.68 million had been dispersed. There had been 10,000 applications for the wage subsidy in the first four hours.

‘A run of bad luck’ – PM; no reports of major damage

“It’s hard not to feel our country is having a run of bad luck,” said prime minister Jacinda Ardern at this afternoon’s post-cabinet press conference, adding that she is grateful for the quality of people working on the crises.

Ardern then passed over to civil defence minister Kiri Allan, who thanked the public for doing the right thing, as well as the media for passing on crucial information. Allan confirmed that the tsunami warnings were cancelled at 3.45pm, which allows people to return home. “While there is no longer restriction on being able to go down to the beach, please do exercise prudent judgement,” she said.

Allan said she had not heard of any “concerning or substantive damage to property or otherwise”, but noted the focus has been on getting people evacuated. “Now the risk level has come down, teams on the ground will undertake a more substantive review.”

Asked if she had felt the earthquake, Ardern said yes, with Allan adding that she had received a text message from the prime minister shortly after the first 2.29am quake. Asked what her response was when she realised we were dealing with a pandemic and an earthquake, Ardern said “bugger it”.

HMNZS Canterbury, one of the navy’s large supply ships, with meant to be at the Kermadec Islands this week with government staff, students and iwi members. Alert level three in Auckland delayed Monday’s planned departure, something which helped avoid a “distressing and potentially dangerous situation”, according to the prime minister.

3.35pm: Some light listening with The Real Pod

3.20pm: Beach and marine threat over for Auckland, still in place on Great Barrier

On-edge Aucklanders were given another fright when an emergency alert buzzed through their phones just after 3.10pm this afternoon – but it was just to inform them everything was now fine. Civil Defence has declared the threat of damaging tsunami waves has massed for the majority of Auckland, but Great Barrier Island remains under a beach and marine threat.

Other areas that remain under beach and marine threat are the North Cape from Ahipara to the Bay of Islands, the east coast of the North Island from Cape Runaway to Tolaga Bay, and the Chatham Islands.

2.00pm: Tsunami ‘definitely noticeable’ on Great Barrier

Great Barrier Island’s local board chair said the surge in the ocean was “definitely noticeable” earlier today. The island was the only part of the Auckland region with evacuation notices in place.

Locals are still being advised to avoid coastal areas on most parts of the country, but the tsunami threat has passed.

Speaking to Newshub, Izzy Fordham said it was “all go” this morning.

“I did manage to see some of the [surge] coming through on a beach on the east coast,” she said. “It was small, but it was definitely noticeable. I have heard reports coming from the west coast of the island as well.”

Despite being 100km east from Auckland, Fordham said the island does the best it can to be ready for events like today.

“We try to have as much preparedness as possible,” she said.

1.20pm: ‘Largest waves passed’, evacuation ended

The evacuations have been ended, Civil Defence has announced. “GNS Science has advised that the largest waves have now passed, and therefore the threat level is now downgraded to a Beach and Marine threat for all areas which were previously under Land and Marine threat,” is the advice.

“All people who evacuated can now return. The advice remains, for all areas under Beach and Marine threat, to stay off beach and shore areas.”

1.10pm: No new Covid-19 cases ahead of PM’s alert level decision

As cabinet meets to decide whether to lower Auckland’s alert level three restrictions, there are no new Covid-19 cases in either the community or managed isolation.

Two students at Papatoetoe High School have continued to refuse Covid-19 tests, said the ministry. “A public health plan is in place around the two students who have declined to be tested. These students are being closely managed by Auckland public health officials.”

All other Papatoetoe students have been contacted and retested and have all returned negative results.

The total number of active cases in New Zealand is 68, with the total number of confirmed cases remaining 2,033.

The Ministry of Health said there remained a “strong demand” for testing, particularly in Auckland. On Thursday, 11,402 tests were processed. More than 69,000 tests have been processed in the last week, with a seven-day rolling average up to yesterday of 9,903 tests processed.

The total number of tests processed by laboratories to date is 1,763,008.

Earthquake and tsunami warning advice

The ministry urges people in affected areas to follow advice from the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and local Civil Defence authorities regarding the earthquake overnight and tsunami warnings today.

As reported earlier, evacuation orders by civil defence override the current Covid-19 restrictions. “If you are told to evacuate, do not stay at home. Stay two metres away from others if you can and if it is safe to do so. Only messages issued by NEMA represent the official warning status for New Zealand,” said the ministry.

“Affected District Health Boards have plans in place for such circumstances, and we thank people for their patience. The Ministry of Health’s Emergency Management function is working with DHB emergency management teams and we continue to monitor this situation closely.”

“We understand this situation may be difficult for some people. People can call 1737 to speak to a trained counsellor, and there is a range of other support listed on the Ministry of Health website.”

Waste water testing

Further results from ESR’s wastewater testing have come in, the ministry said. Samples taken on Wednesday from three Auckland sites, including Papatoetoe, have all come back negative for the virus. An additional sample was taken from a site closer to Papatoetoe on the same day, also testing negative.

A sample from the South Western Interceptor came back positive for the same day, but this is a regular occurrence as it is near the Auckland quarantine facility.

12.45pm: Covid-19 update still expected at 1pm

In amidst today’s chaos, we’re still expecting a 1pm-ish press release from the Ministry of Health.

The release will likely reveal the results of overnight testing from casual plus contacts at the Papatoetoe City Fitness as well as any other locations of interest.

Meanwhile, the prime minister Jacinda Ardern and Ashley Bloomfield will hold a 4pm press conference to announce whether or not Auckland will remain in alert level three.

12.40pm: Auckland ferries and trains ‘suspended’, Spark offers free wifi

Updated

Auckland ferry sailings have been suspended until at least 2pm due to the ongoing tsunami warnings. Auckland Transport has advised travellers that it will continue to assess the situation. Britomart train station has also been closed, as a precautionary measure.

Meanwhile, Spark is offering free wifi to “everyone in affected areas”.

12.35pm: First waves picked up by tsunami gauges

The first waves of the tsunami are reflected on the gauges at Great Barrier Island, East Cape and North Cape: see to the right of this chart, adjusted for tide, from Geonet.

Raoul Island, where the gauge is no longer returning information, is the largest of the Kermadec Islands.

Meanwhile, more footage is coming in from social media of unusual wave activity on the coast.

What you need to know

Civil defence minister Kiri Allan has just wrapped a press conference at parliament detailing the latest on this morning’s major earthquakes and the subsequent tsunami warnings.

Here’s what you need to know:

• Evacuation orders remain in place for people on the west coast of the North Island from Cape Reinga to Ahipara, people on the East Coast of the North Island from Cape Reinga to Whangārei and from Matata to Tolaga Bay (including Whakatane and Opotiki), and people on Great Barrier Island.
• The tsunami warning has been extended beyond Northland, but not all areas need to evacuate. Latest information is here.
• Civil defence orders override Covid-19 restrictions. Follow civil defence advice at all times.
• Aucklanders do not need to evacuate, despite some reporting. There is no need for Aucklanders to evacuate unless directly advised by local civil defence authorities.
• Further earthquakes are “unlikely”, but “possible.
• A surge from one to three metres is expected for the areas that have been evacuated.
• Official civil defence information is available here.

12.05pm: Evacuations under way on Pacific Islands

A nervous wait is under way on Pacific Islands in the radius of the potential tsunami. The Samoa Observer reports schools are being evacuated around Upolu Island, with a tsunami watch in place.

According to RNZ Pacific, Vanuatu is looking at waves of 1-3 metres, which could cause on-shore damage, and New Caledonia is expecting waves of up to 1m. All coastal areas in Tonga are being evacuated, along with the southern coast of Fiji.

11.40am: ‘When it is long or strong, get gone’ – government update on earthquakes, tsunamis

Updated

Civil defence minister Kiri Allan is giving an update on the tsunami warning and evacuations following the three major earthquakes earlier this morning.

“This is an evolving situation,” said the minister, who has spent this morning in briefings. The advice, Allan said, has always been: “When it is long or strong, get gone”. Information has been provided on the basis of having sometimes to strike a balance, wanting to provide certainty to communities but having to balance that with accuracy.

Essentially the entire town of Ōpōtiki has been evacuated, she said.

Allan thanked those who have had their lives “jolted” for following Civil Defence advice. Those who have moved inland or up high have been advised to stay there until official advice is given.

She acknowledged people may get tired or bored, but “we are asking please do not leave those areas until you have the all clear”.

It had been an “extraordinary morning for many New Zealanders up and down the country and acknowledged in particularly the people of Te Tairāwhiti (the East Coast) and Pēwhairangi (the Bay of Islands), who have had to pack up their homes and evacuate, and have done very well.

Civil defence national controller Roger Ball said that “the first wave may not be the largest”. People should not go sight-seeing, he said, and while the civil defence advice overrides Covid-19 restrictions, people are asked to adhere to social distancing when possible.

People in Auckland will have received an alert on their phones (see: 11.35am update). To be clear, contrary to some reporting, this is not an evacuation notice. Civil Defence’s advice to Auckland: “Strong and unusual currents and unpredictable surges near the shore are expected in the following areas. This means a threat to beach, harbour, estuary and small boat activities.” But, importantly: “There is no need to evacuate unless directly advised by local civil defence authorities.”

Ball repeated this advice at the press conference, saying Aucklanders are not required to evacuate.

Despite this, The Spinoff has received reports of families swimming and kayaking at Torpedo Bay in Devonport in spite of the warning to stay away from beaches.

A surge from one to three metres is expected for the areas that have been evacuated, said Allan. Earlier, on RNZ, John Ristau of GNS said waves of more than one metre were being anticipated.

Bill Fry of GNS said no further earthquakes were expected but “it’s certainly possible”.

“But it’s an unlikely scenario to have one bigger than the 8.1 [that was experienced this morning],” he added. The coastal threat levels may change over the next few hours, said Fry, meaning the risk may ease in some areas but not others.

Asked about whether supplies would be provided to those who have evacuated, Allan said this would be checked on throughout the day. A number of resources were available already, she understood.

Allan acknowledged today’s alerts may have caused anxiety and asked people to remain calm and check in with loved ones.

Asked about the rules for Great Barrier Island, which is both in the evacuation zone and in Covid-19 alert level three lockdown, Allan said: “The civil defence messages overrides the Covid ones for now.” Pushed on whether people should still try and social distance, Allan said people just need to listen to civil defence.

11.35am: Aucklanders warned to avoid beaches

A Civil Defence alert has just been sent out to Auckland mobile devices, warning locals to avoid coastal areas. To be clear: this is not an evacuation order.

11.30am: Civil Defence update after major earthquakes

We’ll have live coverage of this morning’s news conference on the major earthquakes and the possible tsunamis.

Watch below:

11.25am: When can we expect the first waves?

Reports are coming in from coastal areas of unusual sea activity. However, we have not heard anything about damage.

Here are some estimated arrival times of the first tsunami waves from NEMA:

Auckland East: 11.35am
Auckland West: 11.48am
New Plymouth: 12.29pm
Whanganui: 12.29pm
Wellington: 11.06am

11.20am: Incredible interview with Far North mayor

While you wait for that 11.30 press conference…

In an extraordinary few minutes of radio just after 9am this morning, Far North Mayor John Carter spoke to Kathryn Ryan of RNZ’s Nine to Noon while he drove around his local village, Waipapakauri Beach, urging residents to evacuate following the tsunami warning.

11.15am: Civil defence minister speaking to media soon; much of country warned to stay away from beaches

Civil defence minister Kiri Allan is holding a press conference from the Beehive at 11.30am, as reports of unusual wave activity are coming in from Northland and the East Coast.

National Party deputy leader Shane Reti, speaking from high ground in Whangārei, has told RNZ he can see the sea going out.

Civil Defence has updated its tsunami warning to cover much of the country. While flooding of land areas is still expected only on the west coast of the North Island from Cape Reinga to Ahipara, the east coast of the North Island from Cape Reinga to Whangārei, and Great Barrier Island, “strong and unusual currents and unpredictable surges, which could pose a threat to beach, harbour, estuary and small boat activities”, are expected in the following places:

The West Coast of the North Island from AHIPARA to MAKARA including the West Coast of Auckland, Manukau Harbour, New Plymouth, Whanganui and the Kapiti Coast.

The East Coast of the North Island from WHANGAREI to MATATA including Whangarei, the East Coast of Auckland, Waiheke Island, Waitemata Harbour and Tauranga, from TOLAGA BAY to LAKE FERRY including Gisborne and Napier.

The West and South Coasts of the South Island from FAREWELL SPIT to PUYSEGUR POINT including Westport, Greymouth and Hokitika.

The top of the South Island from FAREWELL SPIT to PORT UNDERWOOD including Nelson, Picton and the Marlborough Sounds.

The East and South Coasts of the South Island from the WAIPARA RIVER to the RAKAIA RIVER including Christchurch and Banks Peninsula, from the TAIERI RIVER to PUYSEGUR POINT including Invercargill.

STEWART ISLAND.

And the CHATHAM ISLANDS.

The Coastguard has told boaties who are already at sea should head to deeper water and stay there until further notice. Anyone on a boat in a marina should get on shore and head to higher ground.

10.20am: East coast marae sheltering residents evacuating from tsunami

Michael Andrew reports:

Around 200 east coast residents are sheltering at the Hinemaurea ki Mangatuna marae, 20km north of Tolaga Bay and 15km inland from the coast, as the tsunami descends on the region.

Tolaga Bay resident Lily Stender said many residents had gone up surrounding hills, but others had come to the marae. “A lot of the community members have come here. We should be far enough from the sea here I reckon.”

Marae chairman Zak Horomia had been there since the early hours of the morning, and said many people driving along State Highway 25 from further up the coast toward Gisborne were turned into the marae. He said the marae had plenty of food, provisions and sleeping quarters, and that people were relaxed and enjoying the fine weather.

“We got a freezer full of food, and there’s heaps of hills in the way. People are most welcome to come in here for a cup of tea and breakfast, the porridge is on for the kids.”

Horomia said before he came to the marae, it was high tide on the coast yet the sea was far out.

As we were speaking, Horomia got another government alert on his phone advising residents north of Tolaga Bay to evacuate and that a 1-3 metre Tsunami was expected to arrive on the coast before 10am. “The first wave will not be the strongest or biggest, our communities will be facing several hours of uncertainty,” the alert said.

10.05am: Latest advice from NEMA

The latest advice from NEMA shows the extended tsunami warning map and evacuation zone.

10.00am: Updated tsunami warning, some west coast areas now advised to evacuate

The tsunami warning following this morning’s magnitude 8.0 earthquake has been updated to include more of Northland, including parts of the west coast.

The Civil Defence website said flooding is possible on: the west coast of the North Island from Cape Reinga to Ahipara and on the east from Cape Reinga to Whangārei, from Matata to Tolaga Bay including Whakatane and Opotiki. Great Barrier Island could also be impacted.

Speaking on RNZ, John Ristau of GNS said: “If there’s going to be a tsunami it should be arriving very soon”. He warned of waves of more than one metre in some places.

9.50am: ‘It wasn’t a jolt’ – business owner describes feeling of massive quake

A local business owner on the east coast has described what it felt like to near the epicentre of the first of three major earthquakes to strike near New Zealand.

The first, a magnitude 7.3 eartquake, hit in the early hours of this morning – 105km east of Te Araroa.

Ruatoria Pies owner Pakanui told The Spinoff the quake kept rolling on. “It wasn’t a jolt,” he said. “The one we had ages ago was jolts, this one was continuous.” He said he lives in a two storey house so felt a strong rolling feeling.

He’s currently at his shop evaluating the situation. “The delivery driver who delivers the pies, he’s making me a cup of tea and we’re ringing stores to see where they’re at,” he said.

Living up the river, he said it would have to be “the biggest tsunami ever” to reach his property. “We’re pretty safe, we’re surrounded by the hills.”

He’s also ringing schools to see which ones are operating, he said, as school lunches need to be delivered.

9.30am: Evacuations ‘running smoothly’ at Northland camp sites

A Department of Conservation spokesperson in Northland told The Spinoff evacuations were “under way” at camp sites and schools near the coast.

“We are right in the thick of it,” they said. “All our phones have gone off, the sirens have gone off. We’re working to evacuate the schools”.

Asked how the evacuation order had been received by locals, they said “everything was running smoothly” at this stage.

They were expecting more information in the next hour.

9.20am: Quake upgraded to magnitude 8.1

Just a note from me to say we’ll be sticking with this story throughout the morning, keeping you up to date with all the latest info. 

The major quake near the Kermadecs has been upgraded to magnitude 8.1, according to the US Geological Survey.

Meanwhile, a tsunami warning has now been issued for Norfolk Island but there is no threat to the Australian mainland.

9.00am: Second severe quake hits Kermadecs, third tsunami warning issued for NZ

Widespread evacuations have been ordered on the North Island’s east coast after a magnitude 8.0 quake struck near the Kermadec Islands. It’s the third severe quake to strike since 2am this morning, prompting the third tsunami warning for the region.

“People near the coast in the following areas must move immediately to the nearest high ground, out of all tsunami evacuation zones, or as far inland as possible,” the Civil Defence website said.

Areas effected include: The cast coast of the North Island from the Bay of Islands to Whangārei, from Matata to Tolaga Bay, including Whakatane and Opotiki.

Great Barrier Island is also impacted.

The Civil Defence order to evacuate overrides the current Covid-19 restrictions in place for the areas.

“Do not return until an official all-clear message is given by Civil Defence… Walk, run or cycle if at all possible to reduce the chances of getting stuck in traffic congestion.”

Official information is available here

8.50am: Man charged after threatening Christchurch mosques

A man has been charged after making threats online against the two Christchurch mosques targeted in the 2019 terror attack.

According to the Herald, two people were arrested yesterday following threats made on internet site 4chan. One man was released, while the other was charged with threatening to kill.

“I just want to reinforce we take these matters extremely seriously and we are also working very closely with our Muslim community,” Canterbury district commander superintendent John Price said. “Any threat made on our community and our people is a threat on our society and will not be tolerated.”

The threats came ahead of the two-year anniversary of the deadly attack, in which 51 people were murdered.

In a statement, the Islamic Women’s Council described the threats as “incredibly cruel”.

“It shows the need for a strong national security system, with clear leadership and direction working with communities,” the council said.

8.10am: Covid-19 d-day – alert level decision set for 4pm

There are no new Covid-19 cases in the Auckland community this morning, extending the four day stretch since the last case was detected outside of managed isolation.

So far, the cluster has not grown since the decision to move Auckland into alert level three, prompting some to think we could be in for good news today.

Public health experts Michael Baker and Shaun Hendy both told RNZ a move out of lockdown was looking likely.

“I guess we just have to wait and hope that none of those indoor events have resulted in lots of ongoing transmission. It doesn’t look like that is the case so far so that is good news,” Baker said.

However, Hendy believed a lengthier period in alert level two would be prudent – even for places outside of Auckland.

“[Level 2] just puts that cap on event sizes which means that should we have an outbreak we’re not chasing hundreds or thousands of casual contacts,” he said.

7.50am: Two major earthquakes strike; tsunami warning in place

Two major earthquakes have struck off the coast of New Zealand overnight, prompting a pair of tsunami warnings.

The first shake – a 7.3 magnitude quake – hit at 2.27am about 95km east of the North Island’s east coast – at Te Araroa – causing “severe” shaking felt throughout much of the country.

The tsunami warning for that shake has now been cancelled and residents are able to return home.

However, in the last hour, a second quake – a 7.4 magnitude quake off the coast of the Kermadec Islands – has prompted another tsunami warning that is currently in place for much of Northland.

“Strong currents and surges can injure and drown people,” say Civil Defence. “There is a danger to swimmers, surfers, people fishing, small boats and anyone in or near the water close to shore.” The areas under threat are the east coast from The Bay of Islands to Whangārei.

Speaking on RNZ, civil defence minister Kiri Allan said the damage on the east coast appeared to be minimal. “The teams are out there right now taking a stock take,” she said. There had been reports of personal damage, she said, such as broken plates but no structural damage. Some schools may be closed, she added.

7.30am: Top stories from The Bulletin

A decision will be made today on whether or not Auckland will come out of level three, and the rest of the country out of level two on Sunday morning. That decision isn’t a foregone conclusion, but at the moment a lightening of alert levels seems more likely. Our live updates reports we had another day with no new community cases yesterday, out of more than 14,000 processed tests. That includes most of the attendees of a Papatoetoe gym, which was a particularly feared site for transmission.

Speaking briefly last night about the cabinet meeting, associate health minister Peeni Henare said the signs of lockdown lifting were positive. But he told Checkpoint that “all the information” still had to be considered before the decision was made. The NZ Herald reported comments from Henare made earlier in the day, saying there was no chance of an early lift, even if it was another day of zero cases.

On Newstalk ZB this morning, the other associate health minister Ayesha Verrall ran a similar line. She said no new cases had come in overnight. She also defended the decision to go into lockdown in the first place, saying there was a “series of high risk exposures”. She also noted that the spread of cases within households showed that the virus was dangerous, even if it doesn’t appear to have spread further in the community.

There has been some suggestion that it was a mistake to put Auckland back into level three – for example, Newstalk ZB host Heather du Plessis-Allan editorialised on it last night. Because no new cases were announced in the days afterwards, the thinking goes the government might have waited and seen what happened. The counterpoint of course is that a few more days of movement may have resulted in a higher chance of spread, making the need to lock down self-fulfilling. Either way, we’ll have to wait and see what lessons the government takes from the last few weeks of rapid alert level shifts.

Questions are being raised about the stability of the housing market, as a bedrock for the nation’s financial assets. Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr has told a Waikato University forum that he’s concerned that risks are not being adequately priced into the soaring housing market, reports Stuff’s Tom Pullar-Strecker. He says that worry should particularly be taken on board by people leveraging property to buy more of it. Over on Newsroom, Jono Milne has reported on fears around deferred and interest-only mortgages, which swelled massively in volume around the start of the pandemic last year. Note – that piece was written in advance of the Waikato Uni forum.

Read more and subscribe to The Bulletin here

Live coverage of the snap lockdown and the search for a source of the latest infection. Auckland is now at alert level three, NZ at level two. Get in touch at stewart@thespinoff.co.nz 

4pm: Home alone: Lodger living with one of the Covid cluster families has not moved to quarantine

One of the four families linked to the Valentine’s Day cluster had a lodger who is remaining in the house, despite being a close contact of the family, Stuff reports. While the rest of the household has moved to the Jet Park quarantine facility, the lodger has opted to stay on alone – a decision that the Ministry of Health says it supports.

“They have been contacted, tested and isolated at home with daily management,” a ministry spokeswoman told Stuff.

“The person has been self-isolating since the time he might have developed the disease, has returned a negative result and will be tested a second time in the coming days.”

The ministry has declined to say which of the families the lodger had been living with, nor comment on the extent of the lodger’s supervision while they are in self-isolation.

2.15pm: Orr issues warning to property buyers relying on low interest rates alone

Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr has suggested people are not considering the risks of purchasing assets, including property, at inflated prices and low interest rates, while their incomes and savings remained stagnant.

According to Stuff, Orr told attendees at the New Zealand Economics Forum at Waikato University there was “absolutely a question mark over house prices globally and in Aotearoa New Zealand, relative to household earnings”.

The comments follow Orr’s forum keynote address in which he acknowledged that while lower interest rates and monetary policy tools were necessary to stimulate the economy in the face of Covid-19, they disproportionately benefited certain parts of society.

Orr said lower interest rates assisted in “inflating asset prices, with the subsequent ‘wealth effect’ supporting spending by the owners of these assets.

“This ‘wealth effect’ directly benefits the owners of the assets, but it only indirectly impacts others in the economy through the subsequent increase in economic activity and jobs,” he said.

Orr welcomed the government’s recent directive for the RBNZ to pursue sustainable house prices by “dampening investor demand for existing housing stock which would improve affordability for first-home buyers.

“We will be considering our financial stability policy settings… with a view to moderating housing demand, particularly from investors, to best ensure house price sustainability.”

He added that the Monetary Policy Committee’s remit to maintain low and stable consumer price inflation and contribute to maximum sustainable employment “remain unchanged”.

The day prior, finance minister Grant Robertson appeared at the forum via lifestream and defended the cost of the government’s fiscal response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

“It will still see New Zealand sit among the least indebted countries in the world,” he said. “I don’t want anyone to gain the impression that we think we’ve been perfect here. We’ve made mistakes but what we’ve shown is that we can be adaptable and we can respond when we see mistakes being made.”

1.00pm: No new community Covid-19 cases on crucial day for Auckland

There are no new community cases of Covid-19, on what is an important day for Aucklanders wanting to move out of lockdown over the weekend. It means there have now been four consecutive days with no growth in the Auckland cluster.

Speaking from the Ministry of Health, Ashley Bloomfield said six new cases are in managed isolation, identified at day zero testing. Two people from MIQ are currently in Auckland hospitals. One of them is one of the positive Covid-19 cases but it’s not clear whether this person is there on account of their Covid infection or another reason.

Yesterday, 14,671 tests were processed, 7,853 of which were in Auckland. Since Monday, 45 home visits have been undertaken, In all visits, the people were isolating, said Bloomfield.

Of the 185 attendees at the Papatoetoe City Fitness gym – all “casual plus” contacts – 156 have so far returned a negative test. The remaining 29 will be followed up with today, said Bloomfield.

Meanwhile, there are 44 casual plus contacts from MIT, two of whom have returned negative day five tests. Of the 1,882 Kmart contacts, 43 have not yet returned test results, 42 of whom are isolating. 11 Papatoetoe High School students haven’t yet tested negative for a second time. The school’s principal today said testing will be finished by tomorrow.

Two of the students have refused the tests, who are being managed with isolation plans. There is one outstanding student who contact tracers are trying to find, said Bloomfield, but they have returned one negative test.

Wastewater samples taken on Monday at three Auckland sites have come back negative, as have samples from Rotorua and Christchurch. Bloomfield said that saliva testing – that continued to have a “lot of interest” from people – is being trialled at quarantine facilities.

The Ministry of Health plans to work with a private provider that has established saliva testing for asymptomatic surveillance testing of border workers. Alongside the trial of voluntary use of saliva testing in MIQ, the ministry is likely to request proposals from companies to provide twice weekly saliva testing in MIQ, which will run alongside nasopharyngeal testing.

More than 800 vaccinators around the country have now been trained, Bloomfield said, and by midnight last night, two-thirds of the border workforce had been vaccinated.

With some outstanding testing results for the gym contacts, keeping Auckland in alert level three is justified, said Bloomfield. However, even if there are new positive cases tomorrow, it wouldn’t necessarily mean Auckland couldn’t move out of level three on Saturday night as planned.

Asked what will inform his advice to cabinet around whether the lockdown should be extended beyond Sunday, Bloomfield said he will consider the same criteria as with previous lockdowns.

Cabinet will meet tomorrow to make that decision, he said. The high rates of testing over the last few days have been very helpful. “Tying up loose ends from the college”, earlier contacts from Kmart, and the later exposure events at MIT and the gym formed the current priority for getting test results, he said.

Bloomfield said that recent wastewater testing in Papatoetoe had not picked up any confirmed cases. He denied that this was problematic, saying it is a “complementary” form of testing. He said wastewater testing tended to pick up one case per 10,000 people, so there were too few cases for the population of South Auckland to register in the recent testing. If there had been 100 cases, it “definitely” would have picked them up, he said.

Prioritising South Auckland for vaccinations, as has been called for by some experts, was being considered.

On refusal of tests, Bloomfield said it could be due to belief systems – “there is a small number of people who subscribe to a belief that Covid-19 doesn’t actually exist – or it may just be “they really really don’t want to have a test”. Those people are managed and isolated to ensure there is no risk, and if they became symptomatic further action would be taken.

Bloomfield said he didn’t believe the two outstanding Papatoetoe High School students had had a first test.

On the symptoms seen among sufferers of this new UK variant, such as aches and pains, Bloomfield said because the outbreak is far more serious in the UK, where the variant originated, this new aspect may not have been noticed there. We observe things that are “right on the periphery of the pandemic”, he said. It also may have been seen because the cases here are mostly young.

Facing questions on a news story about a Malaysian MP who has been in New Zealand on 55 days’ leave, Bloomfield said he would have to go away and find out the details. It is being reported the MP entered managed isolation late last year but it’s not known how he secured a place in one of our MIQ facilities.

12.45pm: Watch – Bloomfield to speak as test results from Papatoetoe gym expected

Ashley Bloomfield is set to front today’s 1pm Covid-19 press conference. We’re expecting the first results to come in from the Papatoetoe City Fitness that was visited by a confirmed Covid-19 test.

Watch below:

12.30pm: Revenues up, spending down and smoking way down: Government economic update

Political editor Justin Giovannetti reports:

The economy is doing slightly better than expected, meaning that government revenues are up and expenses are down according to the Treasury’s half year economic and fiscal update.

This morning’s update is the latest in a string of projections going back nearly a year to the early depths of the Covid-19 crisis; the economic impact of the global pandemic has been less than expected, with many sectors of New Zealand’s economy continuing to power along.

The books however are still in deficit with $4.4 billion of red ink and Crown debt has surpassed $100 billion.

In a budget expected later this year, the government will reveal its plans to bring its accounts back into balance.“Our careful management of the government accounts has meant we are in a good position to respond financially to alert level rises such as those we are currently experiencing,” finance minister Grant Robertson said in a statement.

One unexpected surprise in the update is that New Zealanders seem to be smoking a lot less than expected, with tobacco duties plummeting to 29% less than expected, or $400 million lower than projected.

Some of that might be attributable to a drop in tourism, but it likely reflects a decline in smoking.

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On the agenda

1pm: Ashley Bloomfield will give an update on our Covid-19 response and reveal if there are any new cases. Overnight, no new cases were detected but more could have presented themselves since this morning.

Today will see the first results come in from the Papatoetoe gym visited by a confirmed Covid-19 case. If there are no positive tests, that will provide a strong case for the government to reduce our alert levels over the weekend.

Earlier this week, modelling expert Shaun Hendy told Toby Manhire that “if we start to see positive tests come back, particularly positive tests that suggest community exposure as opposed to close contacts, that’s where the alarm bells will start to go off.” At this stage, it would appear those alarm bells are still on stand-by, but we’ll have a much better indication of this at 1pm.

“Mid-week, I think we’ll have a sense of the shape of this cluster, and a bit more of an understanding: is a week going to be enough, or will a week look like overkill?” Hendy said.

11.30am: Questions about NZ vaccine rollout after no road map provided

Updated

The opposition is asking for more details around the rollout of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine, after an update from Chris Hipkins yesterday presented little information.

As explained this morning by our political editor Justin Giovannetti, the government is yet to release any detailed roadmap for when most people will get a vaccine. Meanwhile, Australians, Canadians and Americans know where they stand in the queue for a jab.

National’s Judith Collins said while it’s great border workers have had their Covid vaccination, the rest of the country should know where they are in line.

“Australia has declared that everyone who wants a vaccine will have been offered one by October. There is no such target date in New Zealand,” Collins said in a statement. “Our government won’t even tell us when non-border frontline health workers will be vaccinated, even though there is enough Pfizer vaccine in the country for them already.

Act, meanwhile, called it a vaccination lottery: “I’ve always been of the view that if the government has a plan, we deserve to know it, and if they don’t have a plan, we deserve to know that too,” David Seymour said.

MPI staff ‘left behind’ 

Also this morning: a piece on the Herald explaining how Ministry for Primary Industries staff at the country’s biggest airports have reportedly been “left behind” for a Covid-19 jab.

“MPI border workers haven’t received [the vaccine] at the airport, Customs and Immigration apparently have. It sounds like MOH is messing them around,” an MPI source told the outlet. They said some MPI workers operate within a couple of metres of travellers coming through the airport, helping load bags at x-ray machines.

South Auckland rollout should start soon, says academic

Otago University academic Ben Gray told RNZ that South Auckland vaccinations should begin this month, after yesterday’s vaccine update failed to provide details on the public rollout.

“In terms of the wide population roll-out, protection is only going to be reasonably certain once we’re approaching herd immunity, so if a case gets out in the community right now we’ve got very little herd immunity and there’s this risk of it spreading,” Gray said. “We all know that South Auckland is at high risk because we’ve already had a couple of community outbreaks.”

10.00am: Police prosecute nearly 1000 Covid-19 rule breaches

Police have taken action against nearly 1000 Covid-related breaches, but there’s no indication charges will be laid against those choosing not to self-isolate.

Wellington has the most prosecutions with 197, followed by Canterbury with 158 and Counties Manukau with 125.

Commissioner Andrew Coster told RNZ if people refuse to self-isolate or get tested, police are only able to act if called in by health officials. Ashley Bloomfield has indicated that this is unlikely to happen. However, Coster said the police do pursue alert level violations like illegal mass gatherings and regional border breaches.

Over 6500 of the breaches were for violations of alert level rules last year. There were 1050 under level three and 58 under level two. Alongside the prosecutions, police have handed out 6352 verbal and written warnings.

9.00am: Australian attorney-general denies historic rape allegation

A story from yesterday afternoon that didn’t make it into the live updates.

Australia’s attorney-general Christian Porter has revealed himself as the MP facing an historic rape allegation.

Porter has strongly denied the claim he raped a 16-year-old in 1988, when he was 17. The woman at the centre of the allegations took her life last year.

As reported by The Guardian, Porter was compelled to come forward following days of media scrutiny over who the male cabinet minister accused of the assault may have been. Porter, speaking at a media conference Western Australia yesterday, said he was “deeply sorry” about the question mark that had been placed over the reputation of his fellow cabinet members.

He said the alleged incident “simply did not happen” and was “entirely untrue”. He had not had contact with the woman since 1988, he said, and remembered her as an “intelligent, bright, happy person”.

Despite the scrutiny, Porter vowed not to resign over the allegation. “If I stand down from my position as attorney-general because of an allegation about something that simply did not happen, then any person in Australia can lose their career, their job, their life’s work based on nothing more than an accusation that appears in print,” Porter said.

“If that happens, anyone in public life is able to be removed simply by the printing of an allegation. Every child we raise can have their lives destroyed by online reporting of accusations alone.”

8.15am: No new Covid-19 cases, but lockdown won’t end early

There have been no new Covid-19 community cases since Auckland returned to alert level three on Sunday morning. Yet, there is no chance of coming out of lockdown earlier, the associate health minister said.

Associate health minister Peeni Henare told Newshub that no decision will be made on the lockdown until tomorrow’s cabinet meeting, and the current restrictions will remain in place for seven days as planned.

“The prime minister has made it clear we’re in this for seven days,” Henare said.

Papatoetoe High School faces threats; final lot of tests set for tomorrow

From tomorrow, everyone at Papatoetoe High School will have been tested for Covid-19 twice or spent the past 14 days in isolation, said the school’s principal.

Vaughan Couillault told Newstalk ZB that the school has faced some nasty comments from the public since becoming the epicentre of the recent outbreak – with one comment being passed onto the police.

“I did pass one on to the police because there was a bit of vitriol in it with words that would have offended my mother,” he said. “My mother’s not easily offended, I might add.”

The police said there isn’t a lot they could do about the threat, Couillault said, but they did follow it up.

8.00am: Food rationing and six months at level four – the government’s worst case Covid scenarios, revealed

An extraordinary report on Stuff this morning paints a terrifying picture of the government’s worst case scenario after Covid-19 arrived on our shores a year ago.

Food rationing, a six-month stint in alert level four, and a $30 billion wage subsidy were, at some point, all on the table for the government. That’s according to the “All-of-government paper on Managed Economy” – a paper released to Stuff under the Official Information Act.

“New Zealand’s inclusion in international shipping routes may be reduced if our imports of non-essential goods are limited and our exports are significantly reduced,” the paper read, suggesting “New Zealand may want or need to (rapidly) become more self-sufficient, to the extent practicable”.

That would have involved repurposing factories to make things such as PPE and rationing to ensure essential items were distributed fairly.

“A worst-case scenario might require the government to consider some combination of rationing and price control to ensure as much as possible that everyone in New Zealand has access to sufficient essential goods and services,” the paper said.

“Formal food rationing could be considered in the future because of sustained shortage of staples or because of a more extreme form of lockdown, most likely at a sub-regional level.”

If the level four lockdown had been extended through until December last year, the wage subsidy would have cost almost $30 billion, the paper revealed.

Read Thomas Coughlan’s full report here.

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7.30am: Top stories from The Bulletin

To lead off today, a story from the rural world with big implications for regional economies: Prices at the latest Global Dairy Auction are up a creamy 15% across the board. The Country reports this is the eighth such increase in a row, and the eleventh rise out of the last twelve auctions. It was pretty unexpected too – the opening line of that story reads “Kiwi dairy farmers could be forgiven for thinking that the decimal point was in the wrong place”. The price rises are seen as being based on incredibly strong demand out of Asia.

But it’s an especially good result for Fonterra, because their key product went up by even more. Whole milk powder prices are up 21%. The NZ Herald’s Jamie Gray reports Fonterra is now assessing whether their farmgate milk price should go higher for the next payout – something banks are already pricing into their forecasts. The strong auction also pushed share prices up for Fonterra and A2.

For the parts of the country that rely heavily on dairy, these sorts of results are a godsend. In Southland, Stuff’s Logan Savory reports farmers are talking up the prospect of that money flowing through the regional economy. As one farm owner put it, “everyone gets a bit of it. It’s the old story; when farming is going well [New Zealand] is going well.” However, the optimism was also tempered by a bit of nervousness – like any commodity, sharp price rises in dairy aren’t always sustainable, and it could fall again just as quickly.

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