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Newly elected National Party Leader Todd Muller speaks to media. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
Newly elected National Party Leader Todd Muller speaks to media. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

PoliticsMay 22, 2020

The National Party rolls the dice

Newly elected National Party Leader Todd Muller speaks to media. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
Newly elected National Party Leader Todd Muller speaks to media. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

Four months out from a general election, National has turfed out Simon Bridges and installed Todd Muller as leader. Justin Giovannetti writes from parliament on a big day for NZ’s biggest party.

As Simon Bridges clears his desk in the the leader’s office, the National Party now prepares to enter an unprecedented election campaign with an unknown boss, against one of the most popular prime ministers in New Zealand history.

In only a matter of days Todd Muller, a second-term MP from the Bay of Plenty, has risen from near obscurity as his party’s agriculture spokesperson to being its leader. Bridges has become one of the world’s first political casualties from the coronavirus after the opposition leader’s popularity collapsed in recent weeks as New Zealanders panned his approach to the Covid-19 crisis.

The National Party caucus, the largest in parliament, decided it had had enough and early this afternoon gave Bridges the boot. Only three months ago Ardern’s Labour Party trailed National in the polls, but many of its erstwhile voters have since turned their support to the prime minister after her steady leadership during the global pandemic.

With a general election scheduled for September 19, Muller has only four months to make himself known to the country and reverse Ardern’s unprecedented level of approval. A Colmar Brunton poll released by TVNZ on Thursday evening found that more than three out of every four New Zealders approve of Ardern, the highest level in the poll’s history. Highlighting the challenge he faces, only about half a per cent thought Muller should be prime minister.

Also gone is deputy leader Paula Bennett, replaced by Nikki Kaye. A decade younger than Muller and socially progressive, representing the Auckland Central MP is seen as a counterweight to Muller’s rural conservative brand.

Nikki Kaye and Todd Muller emerge from the caucus meeting at which they were elected new deputy leader and leader of the National Party today (Photo: Dom Thomas – Pool/Getty Images)

Recent history suggests that National’s last-minute change might not harm it. Ardern was elected leader of the Labour Party only seven weeks before the 2017 general election, from which she emerged as prime minister.

Speaking publicly about two hours after caucus elected him in a secret ballot, Muller said that as National’s leader he would focus his time on jobs as the response to Covid-19 switches from the health crisis to an economic one. He criticised Ardern for trying to lead the economic recovery from the Beehive, putting bureaucrats in the front seat instead of individual businesses.

Moments after pledging to not oppose the government only for political gain, Muller warned that Labour so far has failed to deliver on its marquee promises, including building new homes, light rail and reducing child poverty. 

“If we continue on this track of talking a big game but failing to deliver, we simply won’t recognise the New Zealand we are part of in a few years’ time,” he said.

What Muller would not explain is why, after only two years at the helm of the National Party, he and the rest of caucus had decided that Bridges had to go. When asked about the poll results he said that the party had just had “a siblings scrap” and was united again. He failed to mention it was under new management.

He described the past week, where rumours had first swirled and were later confirmed by Bridges that a coup attempt was under way, as “a period of internal reflection about where we need to position ourselves”.

Bridges himself didn’t appear with Muller, but spoke with reporters later in the afternoon. 

“It’s been a heck of a ride, a rollercoaster really of highs and lows,” said Bridges, who added later that he was feeling some relief after the weight of opposition was lifted from his shoulders.

He said he supports Muller and expects he would make a good prime minister. Asked why he was just ejected from the leader’s office, he was equally cryptic. “Who knows? People have different views,” he said.

The election of Muller will help National and puts to rest questions about Bridges’ leadership and the recent slump in polls, according to Brigitte Morten, a lawyer for Franks Ogilvie who previously served as a senior advisor for the last National government. 

“These are unprecedented times and there’s no doubt that the closeness of the election sharpened the minds of MPs of what the result would mean for them,” she said.

“The MMP system has a lot to do with what your brand looks like and unfortunately for Simon his brand has been severely damaged, mostly by events, not by any gaffes he committed,” Morten added.

Muller offered little to clearly differentiate him from his predecessor. He hinted that he hoped to avoid the trap of reflexively attacking everything the government did. “I’m not interested in opposition for opposition‘s sake,” he said. “We’re all tired of that kind of politics.” But he highlighted no significant policy differences and offered no clues about how he might change the party.

In a big week for word clouds, if you were to do one from Muller’s speech today, ‘economy’ would figure a lot

Muller said his personal story reflects many of the qualities that define New Zealand. He grew up on a farm near Tauranga and attended a Catholic school where he was one of the few Pākehā students. He’s then went on to work for two of the giants of Kiwi Inc, first at Zespri and then Fonterra.

As his party’s point man on agriculture he’s walked a fine balance, often finding himself in the difficult position of telling farmers that climate change is a serious challenge, while defending them from critics who contend that agriculture has damaged the country’s waterways.

He said on Friday that he was proud to have helped the government pass its climate change law. He didn’t mention a latter squabble with Te Papa over a water quality exhibit that looked at pollution near a dairy farm.

Little he’s done in his six years in parliament has commanded much attention. Earlier this week one of the world’s largest collections of photos, Getty Images, only had a single picture of the new leader on file.

Before his election on Friday he briefly made news overseas in late 2019 when Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick dismissed him with an “OK Boomer” when he heckled her during a debate in parliament.  Muller is a part of Gen X. 

Simon Bridges addresses the 83rd Annual National Party Conference at Christchurch Town Hall as leader in 2019. (Photo: Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
Simon Bridges addresses the 83rd Annual National Party Conference at Christchurch Town Hall as leader in 2019. (Photo: Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)

OPINIONPoliticsMay 22, 2020

Simon Bridges was brought down by his own shortcomings – and by terrible luck

Simon Bridges addresses the 83rd Annual National Party Conference at Christchurch Town Hall as leader in 2019. (Photo: Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
Simon Bridges addresses the 83rd Annual National Party Conference at Christchurch Town Hall as leader in 2019. (Photo: Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)

Bridges will be licking his wounds right now, but don’t count him out for good, writes Liam Hehir.

Simon Bridges is no longer the leader of the New Zealand National Party. He never hit it off with the public but strong party vote polling kept him in the job. When that melted away in the face of the coronavirus emergency, things started to unravel. 

Not that today’s result was a foregone conclusion. Through adept tactical manoeuvering Bridges very nearly saw the challenge off. Not for the first time, he demonstrated sound tactical instincts for close quarters political scrapping. 

But in the end, the dual blow of two terrible poll results was too much. 

That’s politics for you. Bridges will feel embittered by it all, of course. That’s being human for you 

The fact is that the times with which his tenure coincided did not favour his particular skills as a politician. And for those who doubt he has any particular strengths, one need only consider his defeat of Winston Peters in the race for Tauranga in 2008 and his successful ministerial career in the age of Key and English.  

While it may not have been written in the stars, Bridges also made his share of mistakes. He never quite got the hang of diffusing hostile interviewers. And his propensity to over share and let his mouth run tended to get him in trouble (especially when he was being secretly recorded). 

Being a (mildly) conservative member of the National Party didn’t help. Bridges, who speaks in a very broad Kiwi accent, is an Oxford educated lawyer who was the first person of Māori descent to head a major party and become leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.  

Had he not been in National, these would have been things to be celebrated. In a manner that sometimes exposed hypocrisy by his critics, however, these accolades were denied him. All too often, in fact, his class background was used as a weapon against him. 

Bridges may not not have been clubbable enough for the political gentry. There is, however, one very exclusive club he looks set to join: National leaders who didn’t become prime minister. Hamilton, McLay, Brash and Bridges. 

Or so it seems. 

I am not suggesting that Bridges could retake the leadership any time soon. That would be an absurd thing to say. But defeated leaders can, if they have character, get up again. 

After Don Brash toppled Bill English in 2003, the stillyoung Southlander must have been tempted by despair. Opting to stay with politics, he ended up with the education portfolio. For a National MP, that’s not generally considered the most plum of appointments.  

True to his himself, however, English applied himself. Eventually people noticed and he began to grow in stature once more. And as we all know he did attain the highest office in the land – if only for a little while. 

In another time, against a different prime minister, things might have been different for Simon Bridges. But explaining is losing. And Bridges has lost. 

Can he get up again? That’s going to be up to him.