New data suggests that trust in government, media and each other is slipping – and it’s happening faster than many realise, writes Catherine McGregor in today’s extract from The Bulletin.
To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.
A drop in trust – but is it permanent?
Just a few years ago, trust in New Zealand’s government was at a generational high. According to Max Rashbrooke in The Spinoff this morning, this was part of a long upward trend, as confidence in key institutions like parliament and the courts grew steadily from the late 1990s on. But that trajectory has sharply reversed in recent years with the pandemic, a sluggish economy and visible failings in health and education all taking their toll. “Trust has continued to fall in all major institutions, and in the case of government is now below 50%,” Rashbrooke writes. He cautions that we may be witnessing a temporary dip – “a form of weather” – rather than a permanent climatic shift. Still, the decline is serious, and it may be hard to stop.
A dire report on NZ’s fraying social fabric
While Rashbrooke offers some glimmers of hope, Shamubeel Eaqub sees things differently. The author, with Rosie Collins, of the recent Social Cohesion in New Zealand report for the Helen Clark Foundation paints a much more pessimistic picture of trust among New Zealanders. Only 42% of people believe the government acts in their best interests most or all of the time, the report found. Civic engagement is low, with just a third participating in local groups or organisations.
Eaqub had expected New Zealand to at least match Australia’s scores on measures of social trust and connection. “But the data suggests that’s actually not true, and I was disappointed,” he told the NZ Herald (Premium paywalled). While we still report a strong sense of national belonging, fewer of us feel safe in our neighbourhoods or satisfied with our lives. Speaking to RNZ’s The Detail, Eaqub said that while New Zealand is still a fair way from the type of polarisation seen in the US and much of Europe, “if we don’t do something, if we don’t act on the evidence in front of us, we will become similarly polarised”.
Confidence in police ticks upwards
Remember ram raids? The era when they seemed to be in the news every week coincided with a loss of faith in police among many New Zealanders, but that now seems to be changing. According to the latest Crime and Victims Survey, the number of people with high confidence in police rose two percentage points, to 69%, between 2023 and 2024. However that figure is still five points lower than it was just three years ago.
In 2022, then police commissioner Andrew Coster linked the slide in trust to several factors: lingering resentment from the Covid response, negative perceptions imported from overseas, and a rise in visible, unsettling crimes like ram raids and gang activity. Coster was careful to note that New Zealand hadn’t experienced the same breaches of public trust seen elsewhere – but acknowledged that public perception often doesn’t draw that distinction. The sense that things are getting worse can itself be a driver of declining trust.
A myth of tolerance?
If there’s one area where New Zealanders have long assumed themselves to be ahead of Australia, it’s racial tolerance. But Eaqub’s research complicates that view. On almost every measure, Australians report more positive views on immigration and multiculturalism than New Zealanders. “When I look at the statistics,” Eaqub told the Herald (Premium paywalled), “I see that just over half of New Zealanders think immigrants are good for the economy – but in Australia, that rate is over 80%.” Eaqub described the report as a “wake-up call”, not just about views on immigration, but about the fraying of the social contract more broadly.
Read more:
- Max Rashbrooke: Is political trust ‘in crisis’? It depends. (The Spinoff)
