Immigration minister Andrew Little.
Immigration minister Andrew Little.

The BulletinApril 9, 2025

Andrew Little eyes Wellington mayoralty bid

Contributing writer
Immigration minister Andrew Little.
Immigration minister Andrew Little.
newsletter

With the former Labour leader ‘80%’ certain to throw his hat in the ring for the capital’s top job, Tory Whanau’s life just got a lot harder, writes Catherine McGregor in today’s extract from The Bulletin.

To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

A political heavyweight returns?

It’s not every day a former party leader comes knocking on the doors of local government – but that’s exactly what looks set to happen in Wellington. Andrew Little, once the Labour leader who famously made way for Jacinda Ardern, is “80%” sure he’ll contest the capital’s mayoralty in October, according to a source who spoke to The Post’s Andrea Vance (paywalled). He confirmed to Jo Moir of RNZ that he’s seriously considering a run, and a source close to him – perhaps the same one Vance chatted to? – said he’s been approached by “a wide range of people from all walks of life in Wellington” concerned about the state of the city.

Now a legal consultant, Little would bring formidable political weight to the race, having held 12 ministerial portfolios including health, defence and Treaty negotiations. If he follows through, he’ll join a crowded field already featuring incumbent Tory Whanau, councillor Ray Chung, former councillor Rob Goulden, conservationist Kelvin Hastie, businessman Karl Tiefenbacher and media personality Graham Bloxham.

Whanau wins Green Party backing 

Whanau, meanwhile, is pitching herself as the candidate of continuity – and is now officially endorsed by the Green Party. It’s a reunion of sorts: while Whanau ran as an independent in 2022, she was previously the Greens’ chief of staff in parliament, and rejoined the party last year after putting her membership on hold. The relationship hasn’t always been easy – her backing of the airport share sale and the controversial Reading deal sparked frustration among party members – but the endorsement means Whanau will have access to Green campaign volunteers and funding support.

Whanau recently acknowledged she nearly didn’t stand again, after a bruising couple of years that included a public struggle with alcohol and an ADHD diagnosis. But speaking at a public event in March, she said she’d regained her ambition after spending time building resilience and connecting with her iwi. Having grown a thicker skin, she said “it would almost be a tragedy to step down and not be a voice for those who may not have a thick skin right now”.

Labour freezes out its star Yimby

One person who may have felt a pang of envy over the Green Party’s loyalty to Whanau is councillor Rebecca Matthews. Despite being a leading pro-housing voice and architect of major reforms to Wellington’s district plan, Matthews won’t be standing for Labour in the Onslow-Western ward this year. According to The Spinoff’s Joel MacManus, “the relationship between Labour and Matthews has grown frosty” over her perceived lack of opposition to the airport share sale, despite the councillor voting against the deal three separate times. “The ordeal dredged up old trauma of asset sales and apparently left Labour Party members with bad blood towards Matthews, whom they perceived as not having done enough to stop it,” wrote MacManus. Whanau later told MacManus she’s “trying to poach Rebecca for our team… we’d be lucky to have her.” If Matthews does switch sides, it could be a significant gain for the Greens – and a puzzling loss for Labour.

‘If you value The Spinoff and the perspectives we share, support our work by donating today.’
Anna Rawhiti-Connell
— Senior writer

Tension at the top in Auckland

Further north, Auckland’s mayoral contest is also simmering. Incumbent Wayne Brown has confirmed he’ll stand again – and this week texted an apology to his deputy, Desley Simpson, after suggesting to the NZ Herald’s Simon Wilson (Premium paywalled) that she only cared about helping her constituents buy Lamborghinis. Simpson, who represents the well-heeled Ōrākei ward, says she hasn’t decided yet whether to run – but speculation is building. Her son registering the domain name desleyformayor.co.nz raised eyebrows in January, and while she insists it was “a bit of a laugh”, it seems clear that she’s seriously thinking about throwing her hat in the ring.

Keep going!
Soldiers in camouflage uniforms and gear board a military transport aircraft on a sandy landscape under a partly cloudy sky. An orange vertical banner on the left reads "THE BULLETIN.
NZ soldiers board a C-130 Hercules at Kiwi Base, Bamiyan province, Afghanistan, in 2020. (Photo: NZDF)

The BulletinApril 8, 2025

‘A big step up’: government unveils multi-billion-dollar defence plan

Contributing writer
Soldiers in camouflage uniforms and gear board a military transport aircraft on a sandy landscape under a partly cloudy sky. An orange vertical banner on the left reads "THE BULLETIN.
NZ soldiers board a C-130 Hercules at Kiwi Base, Bamiyan province, Afghanistan, in 2020. (Photo: NZDF)
newsletter

It’s been delayed, debated and revised. Now the defence capability plan is here, and it’s huge, writes Catherine McGregor in today’s extract from The Bulletin.

To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

Big risks, big shift

With the world hurtling toward a new era of geopolitical volatility – encouraged along by Trump’s collapsing of the global economic order – the government has finally delivered its long-awaited defence capability plan. The 15-year roadmap outlines $12 billion of investment over the next four years alone, most of it new money, with a goal of lifting defence spending to 2% of GDP. Work on the plan began under the last government, and was delayed not just by the change of government, but also by other factors including the sinking of the HMNZS Manawanui in October.

Announced on Monday by defence minister Judith Collins and prime minister Christopher Luxon, the plan includes missile upgrades, drone systems, long-range strike capabilities and the replacement of ageing aircraft and maritime helicopters. Luxon said the plan wasn’t just a refresh, but “a significant step-change in our defence spending and also our capability”.

Military spending no longer an afterthought

The government’s push for a modernised, “combat-capable” NZDF is driven by what Collins says is a much more dangerous world, and a growing recognition that distance no longer guarantees safety. Defence personnel “cannot do their jobs without the right equipment and conditions”, she told reporters on Monday. “This plan outlines what resources, equipment and support we need to modernise the NZDF to operate now and in the future.”

Collins previously told the Herald’s Jamie Ensor that the intercontinental ballistic missile launched by China in the Pacific last year “changed the game”, and the government now sees the Indo-Pacific region as far more contested. That belief was reinforced in February, when Chinese vessels conducted military drills near the Australian coastline. In February Luxon noted that “we’re certainly no longer in a benign environment”, and stressed the need for New Zealand to invest in regional security alongside Australia and other allies.

Voters are on board – just

Defence is an issue on a growing number of voters’ minds. The recent RNZ-Reid Research poll found that just over half of voters (50.3%) think defence spending should increase, with a further 17.8% unsure. Collins said she believes the public now “understand the broader environment across the Pacific is more contested”. When asked how they would characterise China and the US, most respondents to the poll chose ‘neutral’ for both countries. But 21% saw China as a friend and 16.8% as a foe, compared to 32.9% who viewed the US as a friend and 14.3% as a foe. Labour’s Chris Hipkins told RNZ that even if the public are wary, a spend-up is “justified”, warning that the NZDF would struggle in the face of multiple concurrent disasters or military commitments.

‘Media is under threat. Help save The Spinoff with an ongoing commitment to support our work.’
Duncan Greive
— Founder

Keeping up with the rest of the world

New Zealand is far from alone in ramping up military spending. Australia, Japan and Canada have all begun boosting their defence budgets in recent months, and UK prime minister Keir Starmer recently committed to raise spending to 2.5% of GDP from 2027. Meanwhile, Trump has called for Nato allies in Europe to lift spending well beyond the old 2% of GDP benchmark, to 3% or even 5%. New Zealand’s defence spending is currently around 1.5%.

On Monday Collins and Luxon tried to strike a pragmatic tone, saying the 2% figure is less important than building a defence force that “is actually going to work for New Zealand”. But they also know that investing in capabilities like drones, cybersecurity and maritime surveillance will be critical to any bid to participate more meaningfully in alliances like AUKUS. With this plan, New Zealand is signalling that it wants to be taken seriously – and that it’s willing to put money behind that ambition.