The foreign minister is risking New Zealand’s relationships with China and India, and the prime minister may be powerless to stop him. 

Prime minister Christopher Luxon and foreign minister Winston Peters have fallen into the same dance many times this term: Peters, or another NZ First MP, says something controversial or insulting, Luxon distances himself from the comments but chooses not to take any action. Both men know the negotiating positions they hold: If Luxon cracks down on Peters too hard, the NZ First leader could leave the coalition and collapse the government. If Luxon doesn’t stand strong enough, he looks weak or worse.

Over the past few days, this dance has become even more complicated than Peters made it by railing against the India free trade agreement. He offended China by telling Chinese-New Zealand Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan to “go back to your own country” and then went on to say that in China “they lie like flat fish”. His comments have made headlines across the world, and China’s embassy has lodged formal diplomatic concerns. 

What should Luxon do about a foreign minister who risks damaging relationships with New Zealand’s most important trading partners and large diaspora communities? The Spinoff asked some of the county’s finest political minds. 

Helen Clark

Former Labour prime minister Helen Clark, who governed with confidence and supply from NZ First from 2005-2008, thinks Peters is pushing it.“I think Winston Peters and New Zealand First have been inviting a sacking for some time. Their statements on a whole range of issues have become more and more shrill,” she says.

What should Luxon do? Clark says it’s “too late for the easy options”. “The Implications are obvious for cohesion in New Zealand society. It will send a chill through New Zealand’s migrant communities. And the foreign policy impact is that the New Zealand foreign minister has accused China of “lying like a flatfish”. 

However, she acknowledges that Luxon is in a political bind. “If the prime minister were to act, he’d be acting in the face of a démarche and he won’t want to be accused of responding because China has done a démarche.”

“And what can he say? ‘Don’t take any notice of the foreign minister, he doesn’t speak for the country’? It’s a preposterous proposition. You have a foreign minister that doesn’t appear to like foreigners, who is making outlandish statements, and when they’re made about our biggest trade partner it poses an economic risk.”

“Obviously the prime minister’s strategy is to say ‘I’ve managed this difficult coalition for three years and we’ve survived a full term’. But is that the goal? Or do you want to maintain New Zealand’s status as a harmonious society of people from different backgrounds, that deals with other countries in appropriate ways. You can take your choice: bat on in the face of social and external threats or you can act.”

She doesn’t think Peters’ comments in the house were premeditated: “I think the interjection struck a nerve and Winston spun out. He’s made a very serious mistake. I don’t think it was calculated.” Her advice to Peters was: “Offer the appropriate apology and move on”. 

Peter Dunne 

Former United Future leader Peter Dunne says Peters’ position as foreign minister is “getting close” to the point of being untenable. He suggests that Luxon “could simply fire him”. “However, that causes consequences that may not be good in the lead-up to an election. It would create chaos. But holding his tongue appears to sanction the behaviour. Really, the line he’s taken so far is all he can do.” 

“If the government returns, one point of negotiations could be whether Winston Peters remains as foreign minister. You could cite the strenuous travel as a reason,” he suggested. “I’d be surprised if Luxon rushes into anything. He’ll likely take a far more prominent role on foreign issues as prime minister as a way of pushing Peters into the background.”

Dunne doesn’t think Peters is intentionally trying to break up the government. “What he wants is martyrdom. Winston Peters is trying to appear as the wounded party, being punished by an uncaring government for speaking out. I doubt he intends to be fired, he just wants to be rebuked and chastened. The challenge for Luxon is how far he goes to make his disdain clear.” 

Mike Munro 

A former political journalist and the chief press secretary to Clark and chief of staff to Jacinda Ardern, Mike Munro describes the situation as “extraordinary”. “I can’t recall anything like this from a foreign minister before. This is dangerous stuff. He’s playing a dangerous game. China is not some small insignificant partner to New Zealand, it’s an absolutely critical partner.”

“I think [Luxon] should sack him,” Munro says, based on the deeply offensive and racist nature of it. “Winston Peters is our chief diplomat. He leads foreign affairs. To come out with a statement like this shows his unfitness for the office.”

“I also appreciate there will be all sorts of political issues at play which make it difficult. But purely based on what he said and the offence it caused to our critical partners, he should go.”

“You’d think it was a no-brainer that [Luxon] has to get rid of him as foreign minister. But the consequences for him would be so dire politically that I can understand why he is hesitating to do that. The coalition has been increasingly ragged around the edges and this would be the end of it if he sacked foreign minister.” 

“Winston Peters in the role of foreign minister has generally been quite responsible. He’s had an emphasis on doing the right thing, building solid relationships, and he does an awful lot of travel. I can’t believe what would come over him to come out with an outburst like this. He’d do well to remind himself of the importance of the role he holds. New Zealand is a small vulnerable nation and these sorts of outbursts can cause a lot of damage to relationships.”

David Farrar

National-aligned blogger and pollster David Farrar dismissed the latest controversy as business-as-usual from Peters. “This is nothing new for Winston. He’s said similar stuff for 15 years. And it actually benefits him. It gets him publicity. He’s not competing for 50% of the vote, he’s competing for 15%,” he said. 

He argued that there was a degree of tolerance for controversial comments made during the cut-and-thrust of debate in the house. “If one made such remarks in a prepared speech where it is entirely deliberate that would probably be more serious.”He said Luxon shouldn’t overreact. “The appropriate response is nothing. If he wasn’t sacked for opposing the China or India free trade agreements you won’t sack him for this”. 

Farrar didn’t think the controversy was a deliberate strategy from NZ First. “Peters is instinctive, he says stuff like this in the house when foreign-born MPs get under his skin, and I don’t remember him ever backing down,” he said. “It’s treating people as second-class citizens due to where they were born. And Lawrence [Xu-Nan] of all people is such a constructive, hard-working, diligent MP.”

Janet Wilson 

A longtime journalist before working for National during the 2020 election campaign, Janet Wilson says Luxon is stuck between “a rock and a hard place” because firing Peters as foreign minister could play right into his hands. “Sacking him would be the wrong thing to do as far as the Nats are concerned,” she says. “I think he’s totally trying to get himself sacked.”

“If Luxon fires him, Winston goes off into the horizon and has three months to say ‘we made a stand against this government’. If Luxon does nothing and keeps him, then he ties himself to those kinds of racist remarks.”

“I think Luxon’s got to make a stand up and make some strong declarative statements about how [Peters’ comments] don’t represent National or New Zealand… It’s a very tricky situation, but if I was in that office I’d be calling for stronger language from Luxon rather than ‘blah blah blah’”. 

“I think by coming out harder against it he would have more people on his side. I think New Zealanders look at what Winston Peters said and are disgusted… if he was going to take a real stand he would say that we will form a coalition with New Zealand First but Winston Peters won’t be foreign minister under my future government. That’s not quite as risky as sacking him and dissolving the government”.

Ben Thomas

Former National staffer, lobbyist, and Gone By Lunchtime podcaster Ben Thomas says that while it is legally possible for the prime minister to fire the foreign minister, “he won’t sack him, obviously”.

“It would not be acceptable to the government’s support parties. That would rapidly lead to the end of the government, which would not be in the interests of National.” 

“Luxon has ramped up his rhetoric in terms of criticising his comments. But going further is intolerable for both parties. They’ll have to find a way to resolve things or live uneasily.”

“Outside of sacking him there’s not a formal option he can take. It’ll have to be resolved diplomatically. I can’t imagine that this doesn’t reflect badly on the coalition as a whole. You would hope that getting advisors in and hammering things out through the backchannels would be able to resolve this behind the scene.”Thomas believes Peters’ comments about Xu-Nan were a strategic error. “Inflammatory rhetoric might resonate with some of their base but probably not the wider pool of voters. It seems like New Zealand First have made a mistake here by doubling down, tactically, but I guess time will tell”.