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Director of health Ashley Bloomfield, who, on most days, reads the numbers that will define how the rest of this year plays out (Illustration: Simon Chesterman)
Director of health Ashley Bloomfield, who, on most days, reads the numbers that will define how the rest of this year plays out (Illustration: Simon Chesterman)

SocietyApril 29, 2020

Covid-19: New Zealand cases mapped and charted, April 29

Contributing writer
Director of health Ashley Bloomfield, who, on most days, reads the numbers that will define how the rest of this year plays out (Illustration: Simon Chesterman)
Director of health Ashley Bloomfield, who, on most days, reads the numbers that will define how the rest of this year plays out (Illustration: Simon Chesterman)

The latest in our series of charts, graphics and data visualisations by Chris McDowall. David Garcia worked with Chris to create today’s charts.

This work is entirely funded by the generosity of The Spinoff Members, with support from the Science Media Centre. 

These posts collate the most recent statistics and present them as charts and maps. The Ministry of Health typically publishes data updates in the early afternoon, which describe the situation at 9am on the day of release. These data visualisations are interactive so use your mouse or thumb to hover over each graph for more detail.

This afternoon’s Ministry of Health figures report that the total number of confirmed and probable Covid-19 cases increased by two to 1,474 (1,126 confirmed and 348 probable). A total of 1,229 people have recovered, an increase of 15 since yesterday. There were no further deaths overnight.

The number of significant clusters with 10 or more cases remains at 16. There are six people in hospital, which is a decrease of three since yesterday. For the first time in many days, there are no known Covid-19 cases in intensive care units.

Yesterday, 2,637 tests were processed. The ministry reported averaging 4,844 Covid-19 lab tests per day during the week ending April 28. A total of 128,703 lab tests have been conducted since January 22. There are 64,442 test supplies in stock, down from 66,322 yesterday.

One of the statistics I keep an eye on is the number of testing supplies that New Zealand has in stock. The ministry reports this as a snapshot count each day. This afternoon, I trawled back through the Internet Archive to reconstruct the last three weeks of daily counts. Those numbers are shown the line chart above. The data shows a gradual increase in capacity between April 9 and April 17. On April 18 the ministry reported a sharp jump from 67,702 to 94,820 testing supplies in stock. From this peak there has been steady decline in the daily supply counts. I will watch this number with interest over the days to see whether stocks are replenished.

This chart compares active and recovered cases. Active cases are confirmed or probable cases of Covid-19 where the person has neither recovered nor died. Recovered cases are people who were once an active case, but are at least 10 days since onset and have not exhibited any symptoms for 48 hours.

The overall downward trend of active case counts that started around April 8 continues. Note how the blue curve is levelling off, while the purple bars continue to decline. This means there are very few new cases being reported while existing cases steadily recover.

The symbol map shows confirmed and probable Covid-19 cases arranged by district health board. In keeping with the relatively small number of new cases, there is minimal change in regional counts. Waitematā (no change at 223), Southern (no change at 216), Waikato (up one to 187) and Auckland (down one to 172) remain the four district health boards with the largest number of active cases.

The Auckland decrease is due to a case getting reclassified to another district health board.

There are 16 significant clusters under investigation by the Ministry of Health. No new cases reported in any of these clusters in the last 24 hours.

This chart shows the number of active, recovered and deaths associated with each cluster. The ministry has not released formal counts associating deceased persons with clusters. Instead, we compiled these numbers from ministry media releases about each case.

In most clusters the number of recovered cases outweighs the number of active cases. Three clusters buck this trend. Both Auckland residential care facilities and the Rosewood aged care cluster in Christchurch all have more active than recovered cases.

More Reading

This chart shows cases by the date they were first entered into EpiSurv, ESR’s public health surveillance system. Note that the number of cases reported on a particular date may not match the number of cases reported in the last 24 hours. This is because the number of confirmed and probable cases reported in the last 24 hours includes cases that were entered on an earlier date as “under investigation” or “suspected” whose status has now been changed to confirmed or probable.

Keep going!
Photo: Getty Images
Photo: Getty Images

SocietyApril 29, 2020

Covid-19: It’s back to school in NZ today – but how many children are going?

Editor-at-large
Photo: Getty Images
Photo: Getty Images

Under alert level three, school doors are open to students up to Year 10 who need to attend. Initial signs are that only a trickle are heading through the gates.

Five weeks after they closed their doors as New Zealand went into the strict lockdown of alert level four, schools across the country are reopening to students today – but only up to Year 10, and only for those who need to attend.

After at first describing attendance as “voluntary” when the rules for alert level three were laid out on April 16, the government quickly responded to pushback from schools and changed the language to emphasise “need”, with the directive that “all children and young people who can stay at home should stay at home”. That appears to have worked, with the vast majority of students remaining at home today.

At her post-cabinet press conference yesterday, Jacinda Ardern said “initial signs are that we’re expecting a very, very small number to return to schools”.

A “snapshot” from the Ministry of Education, captured yesterday afternoon, estimated that the total expected number of students across schools and early childhood centres at 42,853. “This is comprised of 4% of the national school roll and 7% of the national early learning services roll,” a spokesperson said.

Across the country, 5% of students were returning to school, said the ministry.

The highest expected attendance rates for schools was in Auckland, at 5%, and the Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast region, at 6%, and the lowest in Bay of Plenty/Waiariki (2%)

The highest expected attendance for ECE was in Auckland and the Taranaki/Whanganui/Manawatu region, at 9%, and the lowest in Tai Tokerau, where only 2% of children were expected.

Schools are operating their own “bubbles”, with no bubble to contain more than 10 students.

A survey of schools by the Principals Federation found that of 650 that responded, the average attendance would be 6%, with as many as 16% of schools – roughly one in every six – not reopening at all.

“Low was expected, but I think this degree of low certainly came as a surprise,” the president of the Principals Federation, Perry Rush told RNZ. “Parents have taken the prime minister’s encouragement to keep children at home at this time seriously.”

He added: “Over the past week and particularly yesterday, on teacher-only day, teachers have been meeting and going through the fine detail with regards to their health and safety plans. Principals and teachers wouldn’t be heading back if there weren’t established processes and routines at this time.”

The Spinoff conducted a survey of its own – albeit more modest, contacting principals at a bunch of primary schools across the county and across deciles. Across the 20 we heard back from, the average was a smidgen over 4% expected attendance. There was no obvious difference between regions, size of school or decile.

“We have started with two bubble classes, each has a teacher and learning assistant,” Viki Holley, principal at Onehunga Primary School in Auckland, told The Spinoff this morning. “One bubble has eight, the other has six children in it.” The school has an overall roll of 460.

“We are prepared to start more bubbles as time goes on and more businesses open.”

Stephen Lethbridge, principal of Point Chevalier School, also in Auckland, said that earlier in the week they had been expecting 18 students, but by 9am this morning that number had dropped to eight. They had not had any unexpected walk-ups.

In his capacity as president of the Auckland Primary Principals’ Association, Lethbridge said: “We anticipate gradual increases in the coming weeks. There are varying numbers of students returning to school across the Auckland Region. Some schools will not open today as they have no children returning.”

He added: “Each school must comply with public health guidelines. It is important that we know in advance how many children to expect. Schools are responding to the needs of their communities but do need some notice to be able to cater for the numbers arriving at school.”

Some principals and teachers told The Spinoff they had needed to gently remind a few parents that school was only for those who had no reasonable alternative, or that parents had originally registered their children to return, only to change their mind when they learned how few were going back. Some said they expected numbers to rise as parents returned to work.

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