Simple maths suggests Labour’s climate policy deletion could be good for them and the Greens but bold climate action still requires leadership from a major party, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.
Greens accuse government of breach of practice on cooperation agreement
Yesterday morning, Toby Manhire reported that Green party co-leader James Shaw found short-term decisions, like Monday’s deletion of climate policy by the government, “exasperating and frustrating”. By the afternoon, the Greens said the moves amounted to a breach of practice over their cooperation agreement with Labour. This morning Manhire interrogates the theoretical electoral maths whereby both parties benefit from what’s happened this week. Labour eats some of National’s vote by shifting further towards the centre and the Greens absorb some of Labour’s vote, thus growing the left bloc. All well and good? Manhire suggests it’s not as simple as that.
Where does it leave us on climate change action?
When it comes to effecting bold change, Bernard Hickey writes that the Green party’s leverage is diminished because it can never credibly threaten to put National in government. “A Green vote now is purely performative,” he writes. Newshub’s Jenna Lynch has suggested the government is working on something for the Budget which tackles both cost of living and climate change, like half-price public transport. A December poll by 1News showed huge support for the existing half-price public transport policy with 79% of people saying they want it to be permanent so we know it’s politically popular. However a recent Waka Kotahi report found half-price fares are not enough to encourage more people onto public transport. That requires regular, reliable service, close to your home and work, and that’s a whole other kettle of investment and planning fish. The government downgraded a push for councils to focus on getting people out of their cars in all but the main centres on Monday.
54% of people want the government to act with more urgency on climate change
While results from the 1News Kantar poll on Monday night have cost of living miles ahead of climate change as the key election issue, further polling results published yesterday show 54% of people want the government to act with more urgency on climate change. That may seem incongruous or individualistic but the question of how much difference individuals can make is fraught. This new polling perhaps reflects a growing resignation to climate change impacts, a sense that big changes are required and that by and large, those need to be driven by big actors like government.
Bold policy changes in New Zealand generally require one of the main two parties
A 2022 IPCC report showed emissions cuts from behavioural changes can make a difference, but the biggest impacts can only be unlocked with the help of structural changes such as providing clean infrastructure and technology. A 2022 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority survey wasn’t able to determine which comes first on climate change action: taking more personal action, or supporting societal-level change. Societal-level change requires societal-level leadership. Henry Cooke writes that while the Greens may benefit in the short-term from Labour’s actions, “really big bold policy changes in New Zealand generally require one of the main two parties”. “Presumably at the election this year it [the Labour party] will have to have some actual policies to address the fact that New Zealand’s reliance on cars and cows mean we have quite high per-capita emissions and no easy path to bringing those down,” he writes.
