The capital is in clean-up mode after being pummelled by wind and rain – now it’s coastal Canterbury and Otago in the firing line, writes Catherine McGregor in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.

To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

South Island in the storm’s path

After days of flooding and disruption in the lower North Island, the same deep low is now lashing the east of the South Island, with Banks Peninsula bearing the brunt. An orange heavy rain warning remains in place there until 6pm today, with a further 70–100mm forecast on top of what has already fallen. In the past 12 hours, parts of the peninsula have recorded about 100mm of rain, while Le Bons Bay saw 52mm, Lyttelton 46mm and Christchurch about 35mm, according to Metservice. Gusts reached 100km/h at Le Bons Bay and 110km/h at Sugarloaf. State Highway 75 between Tai Tapu and Akaroa was closed overnight because of flooding. A heavy rain watch also covers Christchurch and the Canterbury Plains, while Dunedin east of Pukerangi faces rain close to warning levels. Conditions are expected to ease through the day.

Wellington eases into cleanup mode

For Wellington and its surrounds, the worst of the storm appeared to be passing by Monday afternoon, even as the disruption lingered. Train services were back online by late afternoon, while flight disruptions at Wellington Airport continued through the day. The Interislander resumed services last night but warned sailings were likely to experience delays for several days.

Across the city, crews were still clearing fallen trees, slips and debris, and thousands of properties remained without power, with officials warning some households could be waiting until later in the week. MetService data captured the scale of what hit the capital – gusts of 193km/h on Mt Kaukau in the northern suburbs and 128km/h at the airport, alongside a significant wave height of 7.54m – around the height of a two-storey building – recorded at the Baring Head buoy on Sunday night.

Flooding impacts east and west

The most acute impacts in the lower North Island were concentrated in Wairarapa, where torrential rain and gale-force winds isolated coastal settlements and triggered evacuations overnight into Monday. RNZ’s Mary Argue reports in South Wairarapa residents described “unprecedented” flooding, with rivers bursting their banks, roads inundated and communities cut off, including Lake Ferry and Cape Palliser; one Whangaimoana Beach local said a neighbour had “their whole house go under”.

Further north, the weekend deluge prompted emergency declarations across the Waikato – including Ōtorohanga and Waipā – after rapid flooding left homes and buildings surrounded and vehicles submerged, with about 80 people evacuated from a camping site, marae and at least two houses. In Manawatū-Whanganui on Monday, slips trapped about 20 vehicles on a rural Taihape road until a farmer and contractor cleared a route, with poor cellular coverage complicating the response. A police officer told Checkpoint one of the motorists finally managed to call for help after accessing a single bar of coverage on his mobile phone.

The run of state of emergency declarations has become a story in itself: 1News’ James Ball reports that eight severe weather-related states of emergency have already been declared in 2026, matching the total for all of last year.

A messy summer

So how bad has this summer been, really? Talking to Stuff’s Caron Copek, Chris Brandolino of Niwa – now known as Earth Sciences – argues against the idea that one month, or one region, can define the season, even if plenty of people feel short-changed. December, he noted, was a relatively dry start for many places, including Northland, Auckland, Coromandel and Bay of Plenty, and there have been “really hot, spiky days” in parts of Hawke’s Bay and Canterbury. But he also said South Island residents – and “perhaps Wellington” – have reason to gripe, describing a “raunchy hand” for inland Otago and much of Southland for both December and January.

Looking ahead, Brandolino’s outlook was for variability rather than a clean switch to settled weather. He expects warm spells arriving in short bunches, followed by cooler breaks, and – as late summer edges toward autumn – a “lean toward wetness”, with moist subtropical and tropical connections raising the odds of big rainfall events. No change there then.