a surge in listings and softer demand have given tenants rare breathing room, even as big regional differences persist, writes Catherine McGregor in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.
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A long climb finally stalls
For the first time in a decade, national rents are lower than a year earlier – a psychological shift after years of relentless increases. Data from Realestate.co.nz, reported by RNZ’s Susan Edmunds, shows the national average weekly rent fell 1.8% in 2025 compared with 2024, while Trade Me recorded a similar 1.6% annual drop in advertised asking rents, equivalent to about $10 a week on average.
Wellington led the retreat, with average rents down 9.7% year on year, while Auckland recorded a more modest 2.5% fall. But the longer view is still punishing: over the past decade, the national average weekly rent has risen close to 50%. Renters United spokesperson Luke Somervell called that increase “extraordinary”, and cautioned against reading too much into a small annual dip. “The fact that it’s only dropped a couple of percent is not that encouraging, especially when we know the average wages haven’t even been able to keep pace with inflation… it’s definitely not a party for renters at the moment, that’s for sure.”
Why the market tipped
According to Realestate.co.nz spokesperson Vanessa Williams, the fall reflects a rare alignment of higher supply and softer demand. Anticipation of property investor-unfriendly policy changes after the election prompted many landlords to prepare properties for sale, only to bring them back to the rental market when prices failed to lift. At the same time, net migration has cooled, younger people are staying at home longer, and a steady flow of renters – particularly tradespeople and frontline workers – has left for Australia. The result has been a rental glut in several regions, forcing landlords to price more competitively. Trade Me says demand may be stirring again, however, with rental searches up 8% year on year in December, suggesting this lull could prove temporary.
Is it time to ask for a cut?
With more choice on the market, renters may have more leverage than they think – but experts say strategy matters. Housing minister Chris Bishop urged tenants in December to try negotiating for a lower rent, arguing that the balance of power between landlord and tenant had shifted. As Deborah Morris reports in The Post, economist Stuart Donovan did just that, asking for a modest reduction and walking away when his landlord refused – only to see the property re-listed at a lower rent.
If you’re going to try it yourself, tenancy advisers stress the importance of local evidence, RNZ’s Edmunds reports. As one expert puts it: “Don’t lean on headlines and radio stories about national median rents or average rents. No one rents a median or average house.” Comparable listings, time on the market and recent price drops in the same suburb carry far more weight than national averages. Still not confident? The Spinoff’s Gabi Lardies came up with a handy email template for approaching your landlord about a rent reduction. “Dear [landlord’s name],” it begins. “Hello from your passive income at [your address].”
Christchurch swims against the tide
While much of the country has seen rents soften, Canterbury has gone the other way. Reporting in The Press, Blayne Slabbert notes average weekly rents in the region rose 3.1% over the year to $578, bucking the national trend. A stronger local economy, record university enrolments and Christchurch’s growing appeal are all feeding demand. As Slabbert observes: “That resilience is now feeding straight into housing costs: more people with jobs, and more households willing to pay higher rents for what they see as a better lifestyle.” Otago, Southland and the West Coast also recorded increases, underscoring how uneven the rental slowdown has been.
Throwback to 2022
While things aren’t too bad for renters – comparatively speaking – this is an even better time to be a first-home buyer. With house prices broadly flat, interest rates lower than recent peaks and December’s LVR changes opening the door to more low-deposit lending, 2026 is shaping up to be a “Goldilocks” year for first-home buyers, RNZ’s Edmunds writes.
It’s a remarkable reversal from mid-2022, when the Herald’s Liam Dann was reporting it was the “worst time for first-home buyers in 65 years”, thanks to record prices, high mortgage rates and limited scope for capital gains following the rapid price run-up of the Covid era. As the Twitter account Charted Daily put it, juxtaposing the two stories: it’s quite a contrast.
