A poll of polls projects an overhang that could cost Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith and Gerry Brownlee their seats, but Winston Peters declines to go all-in on vote-splitting, writes Henry Oliver in today’s excerpt from The Bulletin.
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With five weeks until election day, the overhang is hanging over much of the election conversation. And according to a Poll of Polls from Stuff, parliament could possibly expand to 124 seats, with four overhang seats.
Under that scenario, National’s party vote would be equivalent to 37 seats, and it would also win 37 electorates – leaving no room for any list MPs. That would cost finance minister Nicola Willis, who is list-only, her seat. Chris Bishop would likely lose Hutt South to Labour (more on that below) and miss out on the list, with everything minister Paul Goldsmith and speaker Gerry Brownlee also looking for (presumably well-paid, private sector) jobs.
“It’s unprecedented in MMP,” former Labour strategist Clint Smith told Stuff’s Isaac Davidson. “It used to be a job guarantee for senior MPs on the list. But that’s fallen apart now.”
Labour would win 25 electorates against 35 seats of party vote, giving it around 10 list MPs. Willie Jackson and Megan Woods would be safe, while Camilla Belich, ranked 10th, would be watching the returns particularly closely.
Former National adviser Tim Hurdle told Stuff the risk was overstated, noting several seats National won narrowly in 2023 could flip back. He also warned engineered voting usually backfires: “Voters generally are pretty averse to manipulation or seeming to gain the system.”
Winston Peters keeps his options open
Winston Peters has stopped short of telling NZ First supporters to give their candidate vote to National, The Post’s Henry Cooke reports. There has been a lot of chatter of a deliberate overhang strategy on the right, with NZ First and Act voters backing National candidates to skew proportionality.
Peters told The Post he was focused on the party vote, as his party always had. “NZ First has always strongly campaigned for the Party Vote for every election – this election is no different … We are the only party in parliament that has not manipulated the system or taken for granted people’s votes by having ‘cup of tea’ deals in electorates.”
Not all his candidates are on message, though. Jamie Cleine, standing in West Coast-Tasman, told The Post he was chasing both votes. Ron Mark, the former deputy leader running in Wairarapa, said he was going for the party vote and didn’t tell supporters where to put their candidate vote – but added: “This is rural Wairarapa, I’m pretty sure I know how they are going to go.”
As Hutt South goes?
RNZ’s Mary Argue reports that Hutt South could be a bellwether for the nation, and potentially existential for Bishop. The seat has been traded between Bishop (the current holder of the seat) and Labour’s Ginny Andersen since 2017.
Consultant and former Jacinda Ardern chief of staff Neale Jones puts 75% odds on Andersen winning, citing a boundary change bringing in a new Labour-friendly suburb, National’s polling struggles, and the electorate’s concentration of public servants. “I’d say it’s harder for Chris Bishop to run as a local champion when he’s a senior figure of a government that’s been seen to harm the local economy.”
Ben Thomas, a former National press secretary and current co-host of The Spinoff’s Gone By Lunchtime, agreed Bishop is “in the firing line”, with National possibly bringing in no list MPs, senior figures at the top of the list “could all be gone.”
RNZ’s tour of the electorate found cost-of-living the unifying concern, alongside general indifference. “I don’t think anything has ever changed has it?” one barber said. A hairdresser admitted she didn’t know who to vote for: “Might draw a name out of the hat at this point.” Another had advice for Bishop: “Come through for a hair cut. I’ve seen the signs – could do with a touch-up, mate.”
