A strategic reboot seeks to put Luxon above the fray and the party on the front foot.

Something, the thinking must have been, had to change. A drip-feed of disatisfaction from National MPs and staffers together with a pair of energetic coalition tails wagging the National dog had created a corrosive effect, agonisingly chronicled in the media.

It culminated in the indignity of a 100-hour gauntlet in which Christopher Luxon found it necessary to staunch speculation around his leadership by calling a confidence vote in himself.

That was followed by a burst of mischief-making by Winston Peters, who couldn’t help but remark when asked that Luxon had cocked it up in calling the vote. He should have consulted Peters first. And in making a rod for his own back, Luxon had destabilised the coalition, Peters said, without, naturally, any hint of destabilisation.

If that, and National firing back, seemed severe, it was nothing compared with the bombshell just days later, when Peters’ office released emails suggesting Luxon had sought to shift New Zealand’s position on the war in Iran to one of “support”.

Through the mists of all of this, a discernibly new National strategy has taken shape. Perhaps it started with the appointment of Simeon Brown to the role of campaign chair, in place of Chris Bishop. Perhaps it was settled upon in that epic caucus meeting – the one, recall, that chief whip Stuart Smith was sadly unable to attend – at which Luxon put his leadership to the vote. But a reboot, a new assertiveness, is clear enough to see.

As we discuss in a new episode of Gone By Lunchtime, the Spinoff’s politics podcast, a number of ingredients in what looks like a fresh communications approach can be identified. They are:

1) Stand up to the coalition partners

Luxon has done well to keep a novel form of coalition, with one seasoned politician and one very, very seasoned politician to contend with. But it’s no more – or, rather, a lot less – Mr Nice Guy.

This may not have been top of the list, but it moved there swiftly enough, thanks to the interventions of NZ First’s leader. National’s top ministers have been quick to alert voters to something that may have Winston Peters rubbing his achilles’ heel: he was the one who put Jacinda Ardern’s government into power. Who’s to say he won’t install Labour again? Nicola Willis upped the ante on that a few days later, suggesting that if Peters was confused about how those emails were released, he might get confused in choosing a coalition partner after the election, too.

A similar assertiveness is visible in pushing back to New Zealand First on its opposition to the India FTA. “Shame on you, Shane Jones,” said Willis in the house in response to her cabinet colleague’s “race-based rhetoric”. Erica Stanford, meanwhile, was fairly emphatic in her criticisms of Act’s new immigration policy.

2) Blame the media

In a two-minute statement upon emerging from that caucus meeting, Luxon devoted a good part of it to a homily about the mainstream media, and their feeble obsession with political soap opera. It’s a time-honoured tactic to shift attention from the question of insecure leadership to one of the fourth estate, superpowered in the modern age by the ability, via social media, to bypass the scoundrels altogether.

It also provided the opportunity for Luxon to say he would no longer be engaging in such pantomime speculation, and offered a foundation for some words that Simeon Brown has embraced in recent interviews, reminiscent of the days of Helen Clark: “We’re moving on.”

3) Do less media, better

You have to work with what you’ve got, and what Luxon is not is a versatile, polished media performer.

He has quit the weekly appearance on Breakfast, where he seemed to be in a painful personal war with his own gravitas.  Did it look like he was “running for the hills”, as someone once said of Ardern doing similar? Maybe. But the risk assessment was straightforward enough: any damage suffered from the decision paled in comparison with the damage that might be suffered from carrying on.

In the media interviews he has done since that decision, Luxon has looked better prepared, prompting some speculation that advice from former broadcaster Rachel Smalley has helped. In any case, the mantra appears to be: do fewer media spots, so that you can be better drilled for the ones you do do.

Q+A’s Jack Tame seized on Luxon’s post-caucus statements about media focusing on speculation rather than policy to re-up his invitation to the PM to come on the long-form interview programme. It seems unlikely that the response (“The PM is unavailable”) will change any time soon.

4) Keep Luxon above the fray

In keeping with the above, best to locate the party leader and prime minister somewhere above the bear pit, hoping that a bit of statesman-like scent wafts up. Nicola Willis and Simeon Brown, meanwhile, are given licence to roll their sleeves up and take the fight to adversaries on the benches opposite as well as the benches adjacent.

Oh, and it can probably, go without saying, and it can hardly be called a new directive, but …

5) Don’t moan to the media

Unfortunately, as events of the last week make plain, these tactical positions cannot be dictated to New Zealand First.

On today’s new episode of Gone By Lunchtime, where I’m joined as ever by Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas, we also got into all of that. Just how damaging were the release of those messages suggesting the prime minister sought to support the US-Israel attacks on Iran, both to his authority in talking about the war and its impacts and to the vows of confidence upon which the coalition relies?

Plus:

• Despite all of that, Luxon can boast at least two victories on the world stage, in securing a free-trade deal with India in spite of the scoffers, and in signing an agreement with Singapore that offers greater security on fuel supply.  
• A new, grumpy-parent-style ultimatum has been issued to local councils: sort out your amalgamation or we’ll do it for you.