Seven moments across the coming days that may prove pivotal.
A devastating scoop from Thomas Coughlan this morning suggests a fuse has been lit for the prime minister. The NZ Herald’s political editor reports multiple sources confirming that the chief whip, Stuart Smith, was in effect “ghosted” by Christopher Luxon in the sitting week before parliament went into recess a fortnight ago. Smith – who as whip serves as a critical interface between the wider caucus and the leadership – had reportedly been seeking “to contact Luxon about ructions in the caucus”.
The coming fortnight, as parliament returns for its final sitting block before being swept up in the budget focus of May, accordingly looms as “the most difficult two weeks of his leadership”, writes Coughlan, who suggests that a group of MPs set upon a change at the top will make their move.
“Speculation and mischief” was minister Todd McClay’s assessment of the story on RNZ this morning. He is “one thousand per cent confident” Luxon will lead National into the election.
That accuracy of that prognosis will be tested soon enough, and the crunch time could be in the first chunk of the fortnight to come. Over the next 100 hours, seven potential hazards will hurtle towards Luxon. If he can survive that gauntlet largely unscathed, the case for a change ahead of November will largely evaporate.
12.15pm, Friday: media standup
Shortly after midday in Waikato, Luxon will face reporters for a short press conference that will unavoidably feature questions about this morning’s revelations, specifically relating to his discussions with the whip and caucus insurgency.
9am, Sunday: Q+A with Jack Tame
Top billing on New Zealand’s only longform political TV programme goes to Chris Bishop, who has been booked to appear live. A star performer in Luxon’s cabinet, Bishop – who was relieved of his responsibilities as leader of the house and National campaign chair in an Easter reshuffle that was widely regarded as a slapdown for perceived insubordination – has been both ebullient and ubiquitous across media this week. He told ZB this morning that he’s not plotting against Luxon, but “everyone wants us to do better”. Who knows what he might tell Tame?
Luxon could, of course, pull rank and require that Bishop withdraw, but that would only fan the flames. He could, even, determine that with a fuel crisis ongoing he will personally appear on the programme in Bishop’s stead. The odds on that are as long as the eye can see, however, especially when you consider Luxon has not accepted an invitation to sit down with Tame on Q+A since December 2024.
Evening, Sunday: Kitchen cabinet
At some point on Sunday, Luxon’s most trusted lieutenants typically catch up to get their ducks in line for the week to come. This “brains trust” as Luxon has called it, includes Bishop, Simeon Brown, Erica Stanford, Paul Goldsmith, Louise Upston, and, of course, Nicola Willis. Deputy National leader and finance minister, Willis will be returning from a week in Washington attending spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
If Luxon wants a frank discussion, this could be the moment.
7.15am, Monday: Media round
The prime minister begins the working week with back-to-back media interviews. Encounters with Mike Hosking on Newstalk ZB and John Campbell or Ingrid Hipkiss on RNZ will be closely watched, but not as closely as Breakfast on TVNZ, where he’s set to catch up with Tova O’Brien. In two largely amiable conversations with O’Brien since she joined the programme, Luxon has flubbed: first in cheerfully declaring himself the CEO of New Zealand, and second in appearing to forget who was in his cabinet.
4pm, Monday: Post-cabinet press conference
On most sitting weeks, the prime minister rolls into the Beehive theatrette just after 4pm for an interrogation by the ladies, gentlemen and animals of the press gallery. After a debacle on the first Monday in March, which capped a day during which Luxon struggled to articulate New Zealand’s position on the war that had just begun in the Middle East, he has notably upped his game. But this promises to be an enthralling grilling.
6pm, Monday: 1News
We’re about due a poll from Verian for 1News. It could even emerge on Sunday. The last such survey, in February, had National on 34%. More recent polls, from Curia for the Taxpayers’ Union and Talbot Mills for commercial clients, have National under 30%, albeit in a position where they could return to power with the existing coalition. But for many National MPs, senior and junior, a poll number of 30% or, God forbid, below that, would have them wondering what they might do for work come 2027.
And it’s not just the party support result that intrigues. How will Luxon personally look in the preferred PM stakes? And what if another National MP – Nicola Willis, say, or Chris Bishop, Erica Stanford or Mark Mitchell – gets a bump?
10am, Tuesday: Caucus
The full suite of National MPs, usually accompanied by the National Party president, Sylvia Wood, will gather for the first time in April. Envy any fly on the wall.
