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PoliticsSeptember 10, 2020

Labour is crushing National in the polls, but Google data suggests the race may not be over yet

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Google has launched a new election trends hub, deciphering how New Zealanders are searching for parties, leaders and major topics ahead of October 17. 

It’s been a long, hard six weeks since the “rogue” Newshub poll that gave Labour hope of governing alone after the October election.

Since then, we’ve had a second wave of new Covid-19 cases, a second lockdown, and a plethora of tempting election policies.

To tide us over until new polling, Google’s election trends portal lays out what New Zealanders are searching for ahead of next month’s election.

Here are five key points:

People are searching for National a lot more than Labour

Despite the most recent polling showing Labour leagues ahead of the opposition, Google searches for the National Party over the past week have almost doubled those for Labour.

Of searches for New Zealand political parties represented in our most recent parliament, 32% have been for National, 20% for Act, 17% for both Labour and New Zealand First, and 14% for the Greens.

Leaked internal polling by UMR (which also runs polling for Labour) this week looks nothing like these Google trends. That polling has Labour well up on 52%, with National on 29% and the Greens out of parliament on just 3.2%.

(Image: Google)

Jacinda Ardern is still riding high over Judith Collins

Despite the high number of searches for the National Party, Google data shows Jacinda Ardern is consistently topping the list of most searched political leaders. Over the past week, 54% of searches for political party leaders in New Zealand have been for Ardern, versus just 19% for Judith Collins.

Possibly boosted by his time in the news defending and then apologising for the Green School funding shambles, James Shaw is matching David Seymour on 5% while Marama Davidson is on just 1%.

Data also shows that the Bay of Plenty is the region with the highest searches for Ardern. That’s unlikely to be a coincidence: Ardern has been on the campaign trail in the area, making announcements in both Tauranga and Whakatāne.

It really is the Covid election

Jacinda Ardern previously said that this election would be dominated by Covid-19 – and Google trends appear to back that claim up.

“Coronavirus” has consistently been the most-searched political topic over the past week, briefly overtaken by “tax” yesterday – the same day Labour released its policy.

(Image: Google)

Other than Covid-19, the most common topics have consistently been tax and education. 

Google also differentiates between political “topics” and political “issues” – the latter of which are more specific terms. The top trending election issue in recent days has been “jobs”, likely owing to the renewed risk of business closures due to Covid-19. In good news for the National Party, “roads” is number two, followed by tax, cannabis, lockdown and the wage subsidy.

While cannabis is in the top five searches, the other referendum topic – euthanasia – is ranked at number 11, next to climate change at 10.

(Image: Google)

The Greens are going very hard on Google advertising 

Just a nudge more than $87,000 has been spent on political ads on Google since May 18, of which more than half was by just two parties. The Greens spent $33,000 on political ads during this time, and Act spent just under $24,000. Labour is nowhere to be seen on the list, and National spent a mere $600 on one Google ad.

Sustainable New Zealand, the party led by Vernon Tava that has been almost entirely absent from any election discussion whatsoever, has spent $6000.

The rest of the money is divided mainly between ad campaigns for the cannabis and euthanasia referendums, with the Drug Foundation spending over $13,000 and Yes for Compassion dishing out $7,800.

That Winston Peters Q&A interview might have done some good

By now, almost everyone seems to know about that interview Winston Peters gave over the weekend on TVNZ’s Q&A. While on the one hand it may have made Peters look forgetful and downright angry, Google trends seem to back up the old mantra that any exposure is good exposure.

Searches for Winston Peters spiked on Sunday morning, shortly after the interview went to air.

Google trends also show that almost all searches for Winston Peters were accompanied by searches relating to Q&A or Jack Tame.

Greens co-leader Marama Davidson experienced a similar level of notoriety over the weekend, albeit for a very different reason. According to Google’s reporting of its data, the number one related query after searching for Davidson this week has been “wap”.

Her counterpart James Shaw was less fortunate, with people asking: “why was Green Party co-leader James Shaw in the news a lot last week?”

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Photo: Getty Images
Photo: Getty Images

PoliticsSeptember 10, 2020

NZ’s suicide rates are dismal. ‘Zero Suicide Aotearoa’ is looking to change that

Photo: Getty Images
Photo: Getty Images

Since the late 1990s, suicide rates among young men in New Zealand have increased by almost 50%. ‘Zero Suicide Aotearoa’, the latest report from a cross-party mental health group, is looking to address these dismal suicide rates. 

After New Zealand placed 35th out of 41 OECD countries for our child wellbeing in the Unicef 2020 report card last week, it’s timely that the government’s cross-party group on mental health has today released a report calling for a multilevel approach to suicide prevention. Their ultimate goal is sustainable wellbeing throughout the country and a cohesive and inclusive society leading to a zero suicide future.

While the World Health Organisation indicated the global average number of suicides per 100,000 was 10.5 in 2016, the New Zealand average has remained consistently higher than this. Data from 2017/2018 records New Zealand’s suicide rate at 13.67 deaths per 100,000, and the statistics are worse when broken down into demographics. 

The statistics for Māori in particular highlight a significant problem in the way mental health is treated in poorer communities. Over 100% higher than the national average, the Māori suicide rate was 28.23 per 100,000 in 2018/2019, with rangatahi Māori particularly at risk.

Released on World Suicide Prevention Day, this cross-party report titled “Zero Suicide Aotearoa” was assembled by a group comprised of one MP from each party currently in parliament. 

The report recognises the need for tailored responses to suicide depending on socio-economic and racial contexts and says while some blanket options could help the general population, there are certain demographics that require local, specialist services.

“Dedicated strategies are still needed to account for age, sex and cultural differences in the population – especially those who are known to have a higher risk of suicidal behaviour,” the report says.

Highlighting the need for Te Tiriti o Waitangi to underpin all approaches for rangatahi Māori, the report suggests four recommendations for all of government: 

  1. Embed and enact Te Tiriti into all policy and practice to support mana motuhake
  2. Urgently address the impact of socioeconomic determinants of health on whānau, including poverty, alcohol, racism, housing and unemployment
  3. Invest in what works for Māori, iwi, hapū and whānau – invest in, fund and build communities to lead initiatives that support communities in suicide prevention and postvention
  4. Work collectively, national and locally to leverage government investment in what works for Māori.

Psychotherapist Alayne Mikahere-Hall (Ngāti Whatua, Te Rarawa, Tainui, Pākehā), a specialist in Māori and indigenous mental health, says the report is a good start but the government needs to consider who the best people are to come up with strategies that will work in a specific New Zealand context. 

“If we’re going to take seriously the Zero Suicide Aotearoa framework then we need a really good plan for that. We need to be thinking about who leads that plan and who follows in different areas. If we’re talking about zero tolerance for Māori suicide then we need to think about positioning Māori as the leaders in that space.”

While it’s great that the government seems to be taking our dismal suicide statistics more seriously now than in previous years, she says there’s a need to address who are the best people to be producing reports on what works in the community.

“Who’s better positioned to produce these reports? It’s about how the government positions themselves in terms of supporting the work that needs to occur, and where they take their advice from – knowing when they take the lead in these conversations and when they follow those who are most appropriate to be doing this work.”

While there is a lot of work needed before “Zero Suicide” is achieved, Mikahere-Hall appreciates the report’s clear message that suicide is not the result of any one issue, and it will take a combined effort to stamp out.

“We’re not talking about a one size fits all approach. If there’s one thing in Aotearoa New Zealand we have to think about, it’s the historical context, the historical trauma, intergenerational trauma and we also have to think about what all the risk factors are and what the safety buffers are that help protect our rangatahi and people who are burdened.”

For Māori in particular, whose rates are more than two times higher than the New Zealand average, the urgency to address the factors contributing to suicide is more potent than other demographics. Mikahere-Hall knows it will take investment in both national and community initiatives to create a successful prevention strategy. 

“We need a bottom-up approach just as we need a top-down approach to support the work that is happening at the ground level. It’s about knowing your communities and if we’re talking about approaches that are beneficial for Māori, then Māori need to design what that approach looks like for themselves. It’s about investing in kaupapa Māori solutions and recognising culture as a cure.”

It’s evident a new approach needs to be taken to address New Zealand’s dismal suicide rates, and Mikahere-Hall is hopeful “Zero Suicide Aotearoa” signals the beginning of that change. 

“It’s about investing in the village so that everybody in the village keeps safe, healthy, and the people in the village can help to buffer those that are most vulnerable. That’s what it’s all about.”