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Photo illustration: Tina Tiller
Photo illustration: Tina Tiller

PoliticsFebruary 13, 2018

Bill English and the end of an overlong era

Photo illustration: Tina Tiller
Photo illustration: Tina Tiller

In just 15 months New Zealand has witnessed a generational sea change in its politics and media, writes Duncan Greive.

John Key. Mike Hosking. Bill English. In late 2016, little more than a year ago, this was New Zealand’s power structure: the two most powerful politicians, and the broadcaster who backed them to the hilt.

Today all have resigned from their most prominent and influential roles, and the sense of a generational change becomes inexorable. Millennials and Gen Xers – who have for so long watched older New Zealanders own power and culture in a reign which felt endless – have enacted a frighteningly swift coup.

In many ways English is unfairly lumped in with that lot. He once described himself to me as being in his “post-party political era”, and his resignation will rightly fail to arouse anything like the joy on the left that Key’s did. Yet he was a Pākehā male of a certain age, with the lived experience of someone who grew up during the rampant inflation of the 70s, and left university into the global market-oriented shift of the 80s.

We talk about the mental scars of those who grew up during the great depression, yet for 60s babies the radical swings of the decades which followed were no less profoundly influential. Key and English were men born within a few months of one another; Hosking four years later. Their touchstones are all largely similar.

New Zealand is a young and diverse country. Its average age at the 2013 census was 38, and its largest city ranked the fourth most cosmopolitan in the world last year. Yet for the past nine years many of its key institutions had a very particular look and worldview. Aside from Key, English and Hosking, the government opposition and most major media institutions were led by members of the same small demographic.

This dominance was not without its flow on effects. House prices kept hiking under successive governments, benefitting the same generation at the expense of those younger. The fear of inflation and of national debt meant that major political issues were fenced off, considered closed discussions because of truths known very deeply to those who lived through certain economic events. This held for both the left and the right – the reforms of the 80s a signal event forever to be re-litigated by those of a particular age, even though over half the country had no memory of them.

It felt like it would last forever, as eras often do. That younger people would always be told what to do by our parents, because they knew better. Until, with Key’s resignation, cracks started to show. Now there is no one over 50 on either of our 7pm current affairs shows. The ancient mariner Winston Peters aside, every other current leader of a party in parliament is under 50, with two under 40. Perhaps most shockingly of all, even in English’s National party – the embodiment of Middle New Zealand conservativism – most of the key contenders to replace him are young(ish), Māori, women, or some combination of the three.

When you care to look, the signs of a shift are everywhere. Bob Jones just lost his gig at the NBR for an appalling column – yet one he had been writing variations on in mainstream media for decades. Leighton Smith is following his more prominent colleagues into retirement. The younger – though beloved of and defended by the ZB crowd – Tony Veitch has also moved on.

It’s not just personalities. RNZ has vastly increased its use of te reo over the past year, while the Herald, which just four years ago ran a Waitangi Day front page with a raised fist – and declared a ‘protest free zone’ within its pages – this year ran a te reo editorial on the cover.

That same cover featured the headline ‘something has changed’. For many, that’s true only in the sense of window dressing – the pernicious social issues and inequalities which have built up and been largely shrugged at over many years remain. And yet it is difficult to argue that with Ardern’s election came a new mood – a sense that one generation had seized power from another, quite unexpectedly. And that while solving the issues emphasised by the younger, more diverse New Zealand will not be easy – and nor is age anything like the only relevant divider – at least that generation is now much more in charge of its own destiny.

With Bill English, then, goes the last surviving relic of his era to remain in such a prominent position. He governed with a firm but mostly fair hand, and has left with grace, at the right time. As he announced his resignation, he was largely the stolid, dependable leader we knew. His voice only cracked when he spoke of his family, and the sacrifices they had made. He was flanked most closely by his kids, and the symbolism was hard to miss: the post-war generation’s time is coming to and end; their children will be taking it from here.


This section is made possible by Simplicity, the online nonprofit KiwiSaver plan that only charges members what it costs, nothing more. Simplicity is New Zealand’s fastest growing KiwiSaver scheme, saving its 10,500 plus investors more than $3.5 million annually. Simplicity donates 15% of management revenue to charity and has no investments in tobacco, nuclear weapons or landmines. It takes two minutes to join.

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Clockwise from left: Amy Adams, Nikki Kaye, Simon Bridges, Judith Collins, Paula Bennett
Clockwise from left: Amy Adams, Nikki Kaye, Simon Bridges, Judith Collins, Paula Bennett

PoliticsFebruary 13, 2018

Who will replace Bill English? The contenders for next National leader, power ranked

Clockwise from left: Amy Adams, Nikki Kaye, Simon Bridges, Judith Collins, Paula Bennett
Clockwise from left: Amy Adams, Nikki Kaye, Simon Bridges, Judith Collins, Paula Bennett

Once ’twere inevitable, ’twere best done quickly, and so it has passed. Bill English is leaving the National leadership and leaving parliament.

That departure triggers a period of intense electioneering within the National caucus – unlike the expansive processes in Labour and the Greens, for example, only National MPs get to vote on their leader. Who is likely to be in the frame to take on the task of opposition boss? Below, our runners and riders – as things develop we’ll add a tick to those who have declared themselves in the race, and a cross by those who have ruled themselves out.

10. John Key ❌

Please don’t email. This is included as a “joke” entry, to take the list up to 10.

9. Winston Peters ❌

Peters ticks two of the crucial boxes being touted as essentials for the next leader: the need to embody a generational change, and the need to get on with the NZ First leader. Could he return to National as leader, merge the party with New Zealand First and rule forever as prime minister? No he couldn’t.

8. Jonathan Coleman ❌

Very slightly more plausible than Winston Peters or Nigel the heartbroken gannet becoming leader of the National Party is Jonathan Coleman becoming leader of the National Party. Coleman put his name forward with a puff of hubris after John Key exited, but quickly withdrew.

7. Mark Mitchell ✔ / Todd Muller ❌

The “Four Amigos” (the others being Alfred Ngaro and Chris Bishop) may throw one of their amigo names into the hat, but probably only with the amigo future in mind. Could well seek to stitch up a ticket of some kind, with an amigo offered as deputy to another candidate, and bringing the amigo votes that candidate’s way.

6. Steven Joyce ✔

The pulsing frontal lobe of the National caucus is a longshot – he’s tied to the leaderships past and he’s never, after all, stood for a constituency seat. A chance for deputy, maybe.

5. Nikki Kaye ❌

She’s beaten Jacinda Ardern in tightly fought races for Auckland Central. Twice. Smart, liberal, able to reach across the partisan aisle. Having recently returned to full-time work after surgery for breast cancer, however, she may decide the time is not right.

3= Paula Bennett ❌ for leadership; ✔ for deputy

Not long ago she’d be right up the front of the pack, but for all that she has begun the year looking rejuvenated, there is reported disgruntlement in the National caucus at her campaign performance as deputy.

3= Judith Collins ✔

A true political survivor, if the National caucus is in the mood for ideological steel, then JuCo is their woman.

2. Amy Adams ✔

The compromise candidate. The continuity candidate. The – gulp – Phil Goff candidate? A consistent and respected politician, with the added advantage of an always funny name confusion with an award winning Hollywood actor.

1. Simon Bridges ✔

Early post-election efforts in the house have signalled an appetite for further promotion, proving there’s mongrel beneath the Brylcreem. He’s young, he’s Māori, he shows flashes of wit. In 2008, he won the seat of Tauranga, defeated a rival candidate by the name of Winston Peters. “I respect you in this campaign,” Bridges said then. “I have learned a lot from you where we have jousted. A young man cannot but help but be impressed by your experience in a debate.” Peters’ assessment: “A bright young guy.”


This section is made possible by Simplicity, the online nonprofit KiwiSaver plan that only charges members what it costs, nothing more. Simplicity is New Zealand’s fastest growing KiwiSaver scheme, saving its 10,500 plus investors more than $3.5 million annually. Simplicity donates 15% of management revenue to charity and has no investments in tobacco, nuclear weapons or landmines. It takes two minutes to join.

Politics