Kindly charge your crystal balls for the triennial earnest date-picking challenge. 

January is here, and with it the long, light days, the scent of sunscreen and barbecue; and the gentle gurgle of stormwater and human excrement blending as they flow out from the beach. Every three years, there’s another special tradition – or at least there has been since 2011: the proclamation of the election date. 

Fifteen years ago John Key said he wanted to get it out there in the cause of stability and the Rugby World Cup, and every prime minister since has followed suit. Christopher Luxon has assured us that he’ll do the same, a laudable stance, given the temptations to hang on to that prime ministerial prerogative until the political and economic runes look right. 

So he’s announced the announcement – a critical plank itself of contemporary statecraft – and that announcement could come as soon as next week’s caucus retreat, or the imminent state of the nation speech, or a kooky TikTok. But what date might he go for? Let us channel Chris Luxon, reclining in his Waiheke garden with the Chris Luxon playlist on repeat, and attempt to pick the date.

The terrain

The current, 54th parliament turns into a pumpkin on November 9, if not dissolved before. The last legal date for an election in 2026 is Saturday, December 19. 

The election will not be on December 19. It will almost certainly not be in December because we’re all busy in December and, notwithstanding enthusiasm from some parts for a shorter Christmas break, who wants coalition talks trampling all over New Year?

Of the 10 MMP elections so far, just one was a snap election, in July 2002 (Helen Clark said it was less a snap election and more an “early” election). Of the remaining nine, three have been in September, three in October and three in November. That seems bound to be repeated, not least because it allows Luxon and co some time to confirm that they have, as he likes to put it, “turned the joint around”.

The contenders

Which leaves us with a lucky longlist of 13 Saturdays: September 5, 12, 19, 26; October 3, 10, 17, 24, 31; and November 7, 14, 21, 28. All we’ve got to do is rattle through the holidays and the summits, the rugby, the logistical considerations and the tea leaves, and we’ll get there in no time. 

First, the holidays. 

The third school term ends on September 25. That puts the 26th and the first two Saturdays of October in the holiday zone and accordingly in the bin. Labour weekend begins on Saturday October 24, so that’s out. Which leaves in the mix: September 5, 12, 19; October 17, 31; and November 7, 14, 21, 28.

Next, the All Blacks’ schedule. 

The national rugby union team may no longer permeate the national psyche in the way it once did, but it still does a bit. There’s an old-fashioned tour of South Africa to look forward to, culminating on September 12, but that’s hardly a factor. There’s a Bledisloe Cup test at Eden Park on October 10, so we can scrawl another line through that. The return match in Sydney is on October 17. Is that enough to rule it out for election night? The European tour, kicking off on November 7, and the climax of the newfangled “Nations Championship” is immaterial. That leaves our list unchanged, though October 17 is hanging by a thread. 

So then to the Reserve Bank. 

By election time, most mortgage holders will have seen dropping interest rates filter through to their monthly outgoings. The economy wonks now seem to think the official cash rate won’t go lower. If anything, by the back end of 2026 the new governor of the Reserve Bank, Anna Breman, and her Monetary Policy Committee could be nudging it back up. OCR announcements are slated for September 2, October 28 and December 9. You wouldn’t want to go directly after one of those, would you? Let’s scrap the first Saturday of September and the last of October. Still in the game: September 12, 19; October 17; and November 7, 14, 21, 28.

Speaking of the economy, those two September dates look risky, in terms of the joint-turning endeavour, don’t they? Too early? 

Consider also the Central Rail Link, which has been in construction for several hundred years and is now, they say, set for an opening in the “second half of 2026”. It should to some extent unlock and energise Auckland; it could also have some teething problems. 

And the weather is still a bit grim – daylight savings doesn’t kick in until September 27. Given all that, let’s delete September altogether, leaving October 17; and November 7, 14, 21, 28.

What of post-election talks?

It took 20 days for the final results, incorporating special votes, to be revealed in 2023, and then another 20 days for a coalition deal to be agreed. At this vantage, there is little reason to think it might be any quicker in 2026. Forty days after November 14 is Christmas Eve. Christmas Eve! The only two MMP elections held later than that date had considerably more straightforward negotiations in prospect. Those last three Saturdays are out. 

Leaving: October 17; and November 7.

And Apec?

If re-elected, Luxon is likely to be keen on attending Apec, this year hosted by China and scheduled for November 18 and 19. That might nudge things towards October 17. On the other hand, last time around, Luxon reluctantly skipped Apec 2023 after talks dragged on. Then, the summit was almost exactly a month after election day. So even if it’s mid-October, Shenzhen is only a maybe.

OK. Given that uncertainty, given the rugby that night in Sydney, given the allure of longer, warmer days, a new stretch of Auckland railway and offering any green shoots the longest possible opportunity to rise like emerald bamboo, our money is on …

a November 7 election.