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Photo: Getty Images
Photo: Getty Images

OPINIONPoliticsMay 19, 2020

Trade deals are a handbrake on New Zealand’s post-Covid recovery

Photo: Getty Images
Photo: Getty Images

The ‘spend local’ mantra should apply to our biggest infrastructure projects too. Yet trade and investment agreements curb the government’s freedom to use procurement for a range of economic and social objectives, argues Jane Kelsey.

The government has a limited number of ways to kick-start the economy in the wake of a crisis like Covid-19. Government procurement contracts are one, by directing taxpayer and ratepayer spending on goods and services to support local businesses and employment.

Big spending on procurement figures prominently in this year’s budget. But will it go to New Zealand businesses, workers and communities, or will the benefits largely go offshore?

This exchange between Kim Hill and the finance minister, Grant Robertson, on RNZ’s Morning Report on Friday signals a major obstacle to giving preference to local businesses and their workforce, especially for Māori and Pacific communities.

Kim Hill: People are being asked to spend locally – buy NZ made. Will the infrastructure build, for example, favour local companies even if they are, on the face of it, less competitive than overseas companies?

Grant Robertson: Well, we’ve got rules under the WTO that we still need to meet, but this government has put a focus on New Zealand procurement already because we do believe we can do things about the way we structure contracts, the way that we do our tendering processes, to support smaller firms. For example, breaking large contracts up into smaller parts so that local firms have a better go at it. So that work has already been under way and it is really important that we engage New Zealand businesses in doing as much as we possibly can. I do think one of the legacies of Covid-19 is that New Zealand consumers are much more conscious of buying local and I think the government has to back that up as well.

Therein lies the problem. New Zealand’s trade and investment agreements require us to ensure that overseas firms can participate in large-scale tenders without any overt or disguised local preferences, and without artificially breaking up the contracts so each part falls below the value threshold at which these rules apply.

Historically, New Zealand governments have been cautious about adopting international trade rules that restrict their freedom to use government procurement for a range of economic and social objectives. The WTO’s Government Procurement Agreement dates from 1979 but New Zealand did not sign on until 2012. Another 48 WTO member countries have adopted the agreement, with a further 11 seeking to join. Firms from all those countries must be on a level playing field to bid for and win New Zealand government contracts at any stage of the procurement process. That means no discrimination in conditions on eligibility, contract specifications, the assessment criteria and decisions on tendering. Increasingly, that extends to contracts that can be performed from entirely outside the country.

The WTO rules apply to contracts for goods or services above a value threshold of between about $300,000 to $900,000 depending on the entities, and construction over $11 million, for 31 listed entities. These entities include 11 health boards, Housing NZ, the Tourism Board, Education NZ and KiwiRail. They also cover seven city or regional councils (Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Waikato, BOP, Wellington Regional Council, Canterbury Regional Council) for goods, services and construction contracts related to transport projects that are funded wholly or partly by NZTA. All of these entities are expected to play a role in the recovery plan.

In addition, the rules in the WTO and all New Zealand’s FTAs prohibit requirements that the main contractor uses local sub-contractors or local content. These are known as “offsets”, which the TPPA defines as “any conditions or undertakings that require use of domestic content, domestic suppliers… counter-trade or similar action to encourage local development”.

Our bilateral and regional treaties pose even bigger obstacles than the WTO. Government procurement restrictions exist in agreements with Australia, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and the 10 other parties to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), formerly the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). There is no procurement chapter in the original agreement with China, but the “upgrade” concluded in 2019 includes a limited chapter that will be revised if and when China accedes to the WTO’s agreement.

There are wide variations in the threshold value of contracts before these rules cut in, and central and local government and SOEs are often treated differently. Because different agreements have different restrictions, their apparent flexibilities risk being neutralised as the most restrictive in any of them becomes the default position for all procurement contracts.

Some exceptions may provide policy space. The Treaty of Waitangi exception is arguably the most promising, to enable real investment into Māori communities, businesses and workers across the country. The wording has several defects, but it does allow positive discrimination or preferential treatment to Māori – not just Māori businesses – in government procurement.

All New Zealand’s FTAs and the WTO annex have that exception, except the CER procurement protocol with Australia. There are some limitations. It cannot be applied inconsistently, for example by different local government entities in similar circumstances for similar goods or services, or used as a backdoor way to benefit local businesses by saying they aim to benefit Māori.

A number of agreements also have limited additional exceptions for measures “relating to goods or services of persons with disabilities, of philanthropic institutions or not-for-profit institutions, or of prison labour”.

What about emergencies such as Covid-19? There are some exceptions for protection of public health, which are subject to layers of conditions. That doesn’t help measures designed to assist the economic recovery.

Some countries are invoking essential security exceptions to justify changes in their foreign investment vetting laws. Again, these exceptions vary across the agreements, from the sweeping and self-judging version in the TPPA that might be stretched to cover an economic emergency to very limited circumstances in the WTO and other agreements that could not. Again, a non-discriminatory tender seems to require the lowest common denominator to apply.

How might the government navigate this legal minefield?

In the short term, broad social objectives – local employment, support for small business, Pacific, regional and migrant communities – can be pursued through contracts below the value threshold, especially at the local level.

Payment of the living wage should be an acceptable contractual requirement and technical specifications for projects intended to benefit Māori, Pasifika, migrant and refugee communities could legitimately give them the best chance to secure the contract.

Splitting contracts into smaller parts is not permitted if the intention is to bring them below the threshold, which the government could be accused of doing. Nevertheless, many governments will be doing so at this time and expect each other to turn a blind eye.

Preferences for Māori, including as offsets in large contracts, would be protected by the Treaty exception, aside from CER obligations – but CER is not directly enforceable and Australia has an indigenous preference scheme itself that isn’t exempted from CER either.

These are stop-gap measures born of expediency. This recovery is going to require years of reinvestment and there will be other crises in the future. New Zealand’s convoluted web of free trade agreements prevents us from maximising the benefits from applying taxpayer and ratepayer funds to advance our post-Covid recovery, and in the longer term.

Covid-19 is the canary in the coal mine. Most countries are facing the same domestic imperatives and obstacles.

Directing larger contracts to domestic firms, with flow-on effects for jobs and regional recovery, would mean amending the free trade agreements. The lack of a Treaty exception in CER should and can be fixed. Current negotiations with the European Union and others need to step back and reconsider the implications of including government procurement in light of Covid-19.

The WTO itself needs to revisit the rules and exceptions for public procurement so governments don’t have to manipulate their contracts to fit the rules. Mutual agreement should be achievable, so long as New Zealand and other governments prioritise their common need to rebuild, rather than the purist approach that has driven procurement as purely a market access issue. In contrast to other proposals that are opportunistically invoking Covid-19 to advance unpopular pre-existing agendas, such as tariff cuts on agricultural products and new rules electronic commerce, this would have a genuine on-the-ground impact on recovery.

The counter argument that New Zealand firms can also bid for procurement contracts in other countries on a “level playing field” has two fatal flaws. One is a simple reality check. Few New Zealand firms have the capacity to bid for and win large overseas contracts, even when they are given the opportunity to bid, and any profits they make will have little flow-on benefit to New Zealand.

Second, and more importantly in the context of post-Covid recovery, government procurement cannot be reduced to a quest for market access. It has always served multiple objectives and needs to be freed from the constraints of free trade agreements to do so again.

Keep going!
Illustration: Toby Morris
Illustration: Toby Morris

OPINIONPoliticsMay 19, 2020

How to export your way out of a financial crisis: A 10-point plan for New Zealand

Illustration: Toby Morris
Illustration: Toby Morris

The hugely successful coronavirus response means New Zealand is well-placed for an export-led recovery, writes Charles Finny in this paper for the SSANSE Commission for a Post-Covid Future at the University of Canterbury.

New Zealand’s response to Covid-19 has come at an enormous economic cost. If we don’t move very fast that cost will increase greatly, and if we are not careful we will be left with a really perverse result. We will be even more dependent on one market, China, and on one sector, agriculture, than we were before going into this crisis.

Of course, China will continue to be an important market for New Zealand for many years to come and agriculture is critical to our future – but we don’t want all our eggs in a couple of baskets, particularly as China has in recent years shown a propensity to use trade dependency as a political lever.

In 2019 China took:

  • 33% of our dairy exports
  • 41.9% of our meat
  • 58.3% of our logs and timber
  • 37.5% of our seafood
  • 46.5% of our wool
  • 28.5% of international education and 13.5% of our tourism earnings also came from China.

According to Statistics NZ data, the goods trade with China has either held up well, or recovered fast, following the level four and three lockdowns, especially on essential goods such as food and beverage.

In contrast, New Zealand’s trade with the rest of the world is now in serious trouble. This will impact our exports greatly, particularly those to the UK, EU and the US – all important markets.

Services exports make up 30% of our total exports and these are being decimated. Our $11.6bn international tourism income has flat lined, and our $4.6bn international education value might halve. All sectors except information technology are likely to be impacted negatively.

Why is this important? We depend on international trade for our prosperity. Unfortunately, short term, because of the global recession, we can’t count on an export-led recovery to completely save us post-Covid-19. But if we get things right, international trade can help reduce the economic damage.

What would getting things right look like? I suggest a 10 point plan.

1. We need to restart export manufacturing immediately. New Zealand’s processed wood, mechanical machinery, electrical machinery, optical measuring devices, wood pulp and paper, iron and steel, wool, plastics, textiles, paper and vehicle parts exports are worth close to $9bn. These are an important part of our export story and if we keep this sector closed they will lose contracts and be severely harmed. Without this flow of exports we will start to see international shipping lines start reducing the frequency of their services. This will start impacting agriculture exports also. If we move back to level four in the future – this winter or next – we should not stop this sector.

The Tasman pulp and paper mill, located just outside Kawerau in the Eastern Bay of Plenty (Photo: teara.govt.nz)

2. We need to re-start the $4bn log trade and drop suggestions that we ban or impose a tax or levy on this trade. Can we really afford – in current economic circumstances – to cut so many exports? I am all for more domestic processing, but a ban on log sales is not the best way to boost this sector at this point in time. I also think we should be getting our $350m coal export business up as quickly and our $800m gold mining business also.

3. We need a very active market diversification policy led by NZTE and MFAT. We need to export more to the CPTPP economies and we need strategies to help us do better in less traditional markets – the emerging economies in Africa and the Turkey market stand out as new opportunities. Success in these markets will require a mixture of trade policy and trade promotion.

4. We need to expand the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as a priority. Thailand seems to be being lined up, but we need a bigger expansion. Taiwan, Republic of Korea, Indonesia and Hong Kong SAR are good candidates within APEC and we should reach out to the UK and Colombia as well. We should also add a new chapter to CPTPP on trade in medical goods, devices and pharmaceutical ingredients.

5. We need to get the NZ-UK free trade agreement (FTA) finished this year.

6. We also need to get momentum re-established in the EU-NZ FTA and look again at FTA opportunities with Turkey and Russia.

7. We need to be working now on rules and protocols with those jurisdictions with whom we can have confidence to re-open quarantine free travel. It will be a few months before we can have the confidence to begin a re-opening of the border beyond the trans-Tasman bubble, but I can see travel with Taiwan, Singapore and the Pacific nations being possible before a wider opening. Representing a potential tourist market of 65 million people, these would help provide the crucial reboot to our international tourist businesses.

8. We need to develop a world-best distance learning system for our universities, our institutes of technology and polytechnics (ITP), our private training establishments, and our schools. International education and travelling offshore for education is going to be hugely disrupted for some time. We need new ways of operating if we are to keep this important industry going.

9. This recession is going to hit our Māori population hard. I would like to see a supercharging of government efforts to boost exports from the Māori economy. We have plenty of resource devoted to this area in Te Puni Kokiri, the Ministry of Business Innovation Employment, New Zealand Trade and Enterprise, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade and the Ministry for Primary Industry, but we can coordinate better. One entity should be held accountable for delivering a step change in performance.

10. Lastly, we should have a new look at the New Zealand brand story. From our own management of Covid-19 to the dedication and expertise of Nurse Jenny from Invercargill in helping save the life of Boris Johnson, New Zealand’s leadership in this field means we will emerge from this crisis with our reputation enhanced. We need a new national strategy to leverage this. If we get it right, New Zealand will be seen as an even more desirable country to visit, to invest in, and to buy goods and services from.

Many of these ideas are already on the way to being implemented. The manufacturing and forestry sectors are operational again, increased collaboration between education providers in offshore markets is being talked about, progress is being made towards the first step of opening our border with Australia, and I understand there is high level political support for an international expansion along the lines I suggest above. Meanwhile, the minister for Māori development is reaching out to the business community to help develop a well-coordinated all-of-government strategy in an attempt to minimise the inevitable negative impact the recession is going to have on Māori.

New Zealand’s success in addressing the Covid-19 challenge and the speed with which our society is returning to something close to “normalcy” is attracting even more international attention, and New Zealand is emerging with a greatly enhanced reputation. This offers an enormous opportunity. A new brand story is part of this opportunity, but there is also an opportunity for New Zealand to play more of a leadership role with other medium-sized jurisdictions. After all, countries like ours jointly face increasing challenges in a global order where respect for an international rules-based system is diminishing, and where the operation of many international organisations is being challenged by larger players.

The SSANSE (Small States and the New Security Environment) Project at the University of Canterbury is launching a Commission for a Post-Covid Future to provide contestable policy advice to the New Zealand government on options for foreign, trade and economic policy for New Zealand’s post-Covid recovery.

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