New Zealand just experienced some of its longest stretches of dry weather on record. For some reason they came in mid to late autumn.
Many of us spent the summer moaning. In Wellington it was cold and windy. In Christchurch it was cold and wet. In Auckland it was everything in short succession. At worst, the weather caused tragedies. Towns flooded and hillsides slipped away. At best, it was just a bit ass.
As it turns out, summer was just taking its sweet time. Though things may have gone a bit bung recently, New Zealand’s major centres just completed some of their longest stretches of dry, mostly fine weather in years. The Earth Sciences New Zealand data is striking. Christchurch is on track for its driest May on record. Three of the city’s weather stations recorded their lowest-ever rainfall for the month to May 27, with 5mm at Christchurch airport, 1mm in Riccarton and 1mm at the botanic garden. Auckland is heading for its second-driest May. Earth Sciences’ Māngere weather station recorded just 11mm of rain in the same period, the equal-lowest total since records began in 1959. The 24mm rainfall recorded at Motat was the lowest since 1948.
Even the country’s notoriously meteorologically challenged capital had a comparatively good run. It’s on track for its third-driest May on record. The 28mm of rain recorded at Wellington airport to May 27 was the third-lowest since 1958. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Te Whanganui-a-Tara’s stats were betrayed by a few of its classic shitters. In between, it enjoyed some of its nicest stretches of sunshine, including 14 straight days between April 23 and May 6 with less than 1.2mm of rainfall. Once that ended, it quickly went on another hot streak, recording 18 mostly dry days leading up to May 26, in what was its third-longest stretch of good weather for any time of the year dating back to 2021.
Nationally, the picture doesn’t change much. Many weather stations have been tracking among their four driest Mays on record. About half of those are heading towards their top one or two results. Earth Sciences meteorologist Chester Lampkin says the run of settled weather amounts to a season swap. “Summer was wet for most of the country, so it’s almost been a pattern flip,” he says. “This is going to end up one of the driest Mays New Zealand has ever experienced.”
Why? Well as usual it’s partly down to a dose of good old-fashioned climate change. Lampkin says we’re seeing atmospheric swings thanks to our potentially foolhardy decision to bake the planet like a loaf of focaccia bread, with New Zealand oscillating more often between storms and sunshine. “It’s the boom and bust,” he says. “Climate change is likely to exacerbate that.”
But besides that, there are non-man-made weather systems at play. Though New Zealand is technically still in La Niña, which generally features cooler temperatures, it’s expected that El Niño could develop through winter and spring. The climate pattern generally brings drier weather to the north and east of the North and South Islands. Lampkin says, after all the laments for a lost summer, the nation may soon find itself in a position where it’s had too much of a good thing. “We could end up looking at droughts again,” he says. “It’s a distinct possibility.”
It’s always the way. After a summer of too much rain and wind, we may be heading into a winter and spring of too much sun. That’s the thing with living on a South Pacific island. Between fine days, we’re buffeted by the depressions rolling off the Tasman Sea and cyclones spinning in off the Pacific. It’s often too hot or too cold, and hardly ever the Goldilocks zone of just right. That’s why it’s important to enjoy the good stuff while it lasts. Hopefully you all made the most of May.
