Phil Goff pictured in 2019, when he was mayor of Auckland. (Photo: Phil Walters / Getty Images)
Phil Goff pictured in 2019, when he was mayor of Auckland. (Photo: Phil Walters / Getty Images)

The BulletinMarch 7, 2025

How Phil Goff was undone by one undiplomatic remark

Phil Goff pictured in 2019, when he was mayor of Auckland. (Photo: Phil Walters / Getty Images)
Phil Goff pictured in 2019, when he was mayor of Auckland. (Photo: Phil Walters / Getty Images)

The former Auckland mayor’s momentary lapse in judgement has cost him his diplomatic career, writes Catherine McGregor in today’s extract from The Bulletin.

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Peters moves fast after comment comes to light

It was only a brief question during a post-talk Q&A. In fact, as one Alex Braae, late of this parish, observed on X, Phil Goff was actually doing “more of a comment than a question”, that classic bugbear of festival audiences the world over.

Either way, Goff’s remarks about Winston Churchill, Neville Chamberlain and Donald Trump were enough to get him sacked as High Commissioner to the UK, a job he has had since 2023. Foreign minister Winston Peters said sacking Goff was one of the most difficult things he has had to do in his whole career, but the strict requirements of Goff’s diplomatic role left him with no choice. “When you are in that position you represent the government and the policies of the day, you’re not able to free-think, you are the face of New Zealand,” Peters said. That goes double when you’re trying to stay on the good side of the notoriously thin-skinned as Donald Trump, Peters could have added (but didn’t).

What Goff said

The former Labour leader and Auckland mayor made his fateful comment during an event at Chatham House, a leading international affairs think tank. If you recognise the name, it’s likely because it has come to signify restrictions on revealing the identity behind a particular comment or quote – though sadly for Goff, most Chatham House events don’t actually follow this rule.

Following a talk by Finnish foreign minister Elina Valtonen about the challenges of dealing with neighbouring Russia, Goff said he had been re-reading Winston Churchill’s speech to the House of Commons in 1938 after the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler. “He turned to [prime minister Neville] Chamberlain, he said, ‘You had the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, yet you will have war’,” Goff said.

He went on: “President Trump has restored the bust of Churchill to the Oval Office. But do you think he really understands history?” the Guardian’s Eva Corlett reports.

Clark and Hipkins differ on sacking

Helen Clark, Goff’s predecessor as Labour leader, tweeted that the comment looked like “a very thin excuse” for his sacking. Current leader Chris Hipkins said he understood Peters’ position. “If a politician had said those comments, I don’t think anyone would particularly bat an eyelid, but Phil Goff is currently a diplomat, and so there is a different standard for diplomats.”

Herald politics writer Audrey Young (Premium paywalled) said Goff let himself down. He would never have made the comments had he been posted to Washington DC rather than London, Young wrote. “But he should not have made them anywhere. It was a momentary lapse in judgment and he has paid a heavy but justifiable price in the circumstances.”

‘You chose dishonour, yet you will have war’

It may not be as famous as “We will fight them on the beaches”, but Winston Churchill’s 1938 speech to parliament is still remembered as one of his great pieces of oratory. At the time Churchill was a backbench MP for the Conservatives, who had been out of government since 1929. He rose to speak just days after prime minister Neville Chamberlain returned from signing the Munich Agreement which allowed Nazi Germany to annex the Sudetenland, a German-speaking region of Czechoslovakia, in an effort to avoid war.

Churchill was a lone voice against the Munich Agreement – most British politicians and the public supported Chamberlain’s appeasement. However, within a year, Germany had taken over all of Czechoslovakia, proving Churchill right.

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Former Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr. (Image: Getty / The Spinoff)
Former Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr. (Image: Getty / The Spinoff)

The BulletinMarch 6, 2025

Adrian Orr walks off into the sunset

Former Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr. (Image: Getty / The Spinoff)
Former Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr. (Image: Getty / The Spinoff)

The Reserve Bank governor shocked the business world with his resignation announcement. Why now, and why so sudden, asks Catherine McGregor in today’s extract from The Bulletin.

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‘An embarrassment for the bank’

Adrian Orr has suddenly resigned as Reserve Bank governor, and no one wants to say exactly why. Neither the prime minister nor the finance minister, Nicola Willis, would be drawn on the reasons for Orr’s departure, while Neil Quigley, chair of the Reserve Bank’s board, said only that Orr “feels he’s achieved the things he wanted to achieve” in the job and had decided it was time to go.

“Market participants” tell Interest’s Dan Brunskill the speed and suddenness of Orr’s resignation is “bizarre and surprising”, especially since it came just a day before he was due to open a monetary policy conference featuring former US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke. Orr is no longer attending, the Herald understands.

In an opinion column in The Post (paywalled), Luke Malpass writes that “it is extremely rare – globally – for central bank governors to resign mid-term and almost unheard of for them to pull the pin, effective immediately. The way it played out was an embarrassment for the bank and everyone else involved.”

What Orr got wrong

In recent years, Orr’s pandemic-era stimulus measures – once seen as a lifeline for the economy – have been criticised as too much, for too long.

Last month a panel of leading economists said that in retrospect, both the government and the Reserve Bank overestimated the Covid financial meltdown, leading to excessive stimulus that fuelled inflation. ASB’s Nick Tuffley said that “we ended up throwing literally everything into” the crisis. “Perhaps the lesson [from the era] is being more onto it for signs you’ve done enough.” ANZ’s Sharon Zollner said those in charge of the economy should have been more willing to question their assumptions, reports RNZ’s Susan Edmunds. “If your economy has house prices going up the fastest in the world, would you have interest rates at practically zero and talk about adding more stimulus in every way possible? But hindsight is a wonderful thing.”

‘A very exasperated school principal’

Having helped pump the economy with record low interest rates, in October 2021 the RBNZ reversed course, raising the OCR harder and faster than central banks in other peer nations. In November 2022 Orr admitted the RBNZ was deliberately trying to engineer a recession to rein in inflation; by March 2024 he’d achieved that goal. As the screws turned on the economy, Orr’s post-OCR-hike press conferences took on the tone of “a very exasperated principal watching five million children refuse to come in from spending playtime and thus requiring a mass cash detention”, wrote The Spinoff’s Duncan Greive in January 2023.

Bank capital rules may have played a key role

With inflation now under control, Orr is stepping aside. BusinessDesk’s Pattrick Smellie (paywalled) cites a few good reasons he might be going, involving both political tensions and policy battles. However Smellie thinks Orr’s stricter capital ratios – requiring banks to hold more capital to withstand financial crises – were likely a deciding factor. With the government eager to boost economic growth, Orr faced strong pushback from those who felt the strict rules stifled competition and business lending.

As for who might replace Orr, Smellie says while new acting governor Christian Hawkesby – formerly Orr’s deputy – is extremely capable, he’s basically more of the same. Prasanna Gai, an economics professor at the University of Auckland, could be the “internationally credible new broom” that the RBNZ is looking for, Smellie suggests. The NZ Herald (Premium paywalled) also mentions RBNZ chief economist Dr John McDermott (now heading up think-tank Motu), Treasury chief economist Dominick Stephens and current assistant RBNZ Governor Karen Silk as contenders.