The large number of departing New Zealanders has become an international curiosity – but fixing our population problem will take more than just encouraging people to stay put, writes Catherine McGregor in today’s extract from The Bulletin.
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Lowest net migration since 2013
New Zealand’s migration balance has slumped to its lowest level in more than a decade, as record numbers of citizens continue to head overseas in search of better prospects. As Sam Smith reports in Stuff, Stats NZ recorded a net gain of just 12,400 people in the year to September, the lowest since 2013 (excluding Covid) and down sharply from more than 42,000 a year earlier. In the same period, a record 72,700 New Zealanders left the country.
New Zealand’s rate of departures has garnered sustained international interest. In just the past week, The Guardian asked for stories from locals heading overseas and a journalist from a German newspaper posted to Reddit in search of Wellingtonians preparing to leave. Meanwhile a similar callout – “Have you left NZ, or are you considering it? Let us know.” – is a regular feature of Stuff articles on the topic, including Smith’s.
Why more migrants aren’t the full solution
In Interest.co.nz, agribusiness consultant Keith Woodford argues that the problem runs deeper than the recent slowdown in net migration. His analysis shows that New Zealand’s per-capita GDP growth has been steadily declining since the 1990s. With our relatively anaemic GDP growth shared around an increasing population, individual prosperity is stagnating. “If you are struggling, then you are a typical Kiwi,” he writes.
Increasing the population further will do little to address per-capita GDP, he says, if the new workers are not targeted towards high-growth export sectors. “However, it is very easy to see an increasing population leading to an ongoing increase in the demand for imports. That is where we are right now.”
The answer, Woodford says, is a coherent population policy that targets migration to sectors where labour shortages are critical, like healthcare, or to primary industries where more workers will lead to higher GDP, like agriculture, forestry and fishing.
The birth rate conundrum
If migration can’t drive prosperity alone, it’s worth taking a look at the other side of the equation: the country’s falling birth rate. New Zealand’s fertility rate is now around 1.6 – well below the replacement level of 2.1 and in line with the trend seen across most developed economies. Writing in the NZ Herald (paywalled), Michael Johnston of the New Zealand Initiative warns that an ageing population will mean fewer workers supporting more retirees, with the ratio projected to shrink from 4:1 today to 2:1 within 50 years.
Immigration can buy time, he says, but “sooner or later, if fertility rates around the world decline enough, sources of younger immigrants will dry up”. His prescription: implement practical economic measures to encourage people to start families. That means a laser focus on tackling housing affordability and lifting productivity by “rolling out the welcome mat” to foreign investment to create more high-wage jobs. A more prosperous population, Johnston argues, is more likely to be enthusiastic about having children – and less likely to leave in search of a better life abroad.
Fairness, family and the future
Writing in The Spinoff, AUT economist Lisa Meehan and Gail Pacheco, equal employment opportunities commissioner at the Human Rights Commission, take the argument further. They suggest that New Zealand’s fertility problem is really a fairness problem. Their research shows that while women’s participation in higher education and work has surged, the division of care has not caught up. The result is a “parenthood penalty” borne almost entirely by women, leaving many reluctant to have more children.
In countries where men share care more equally and governments invest in affordable childcare, the birth rate tends to decline more slowly. As Meehan and Pacheco put it, “A country that wants more children must first become a place where women and men can share care, work and opportunity without sacrificing their futures.”
