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The BulletinJuly 23, 2024

A $1.4bn turnaround job for Health NZ

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In today’s extract from The Bulletin by Stewart Sowman-Lund: is Te Whatu Ora overspending or just underfunded?

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‘The strongest ministerial intervention available’

Christopher Luxon likes to talk about turnaround jobs, and this week he’s promised another one. At his post-cabinet press conference last night, the prime minister and health minister Shane Reti announced the board of Health NZ would be sacked and replaced with a commissioner, as The Post reported here. That role will go to professor Lester Levy, who was recently appointed as the agency’s chair. “This is the strongest ministerial intervention available under the Pae Ora Act and not a decision I have taken lightly, however the magnitude of the issue requires such action,” said Reti. The health minister laid the blame squarely at the feet of the former government’s decision to consolidate the country’s district health boards back in 2022, saying this resulted in “an overly centralised operating model, limited oversight of financial and non-financial performance, and fragmented administrative data systems which were unable to identify risks until it was too late”. But how much blame can fairly be levelled at Labour?

How did we end up here?

It’s not a huge surprise the government has taken action to shake up Health NZ. National has been consistently critical of Labour’s moves to overhaul the health system, though much of this furore was targeted at the (now-scrapped) Māori Health Authority. Those working in the health system haven’t been hugely positive, either, as this RNZ report from last year illustrates.

The signs of a major shake-up have been visible for some time. Back in 2022, Luxon, then opposition leader, claimed the creation of Health NZ would lead to a “mega bureaucracy” and not improve the state of our country’s health, views that he reiterated yesterday. Act’s David Seymour hinted at yesterday’s announcement before the weekend while serving as acting prime minister, reported the Herald’s Adam Pearse. In April, Health NZ’s chair Karen Poutasi resigned after less than a year in the role (her tenure had followed that of Rob Campbell, who was sacked by the last government). Lester Levy was soon brought in to replace Poutasi. Ian Powell argued for Newsroom that Levy was “made for” Luxon’s style of business politics, claiming he was backed by Treasury (a suggestion the department disputed).

In recent weeks, the number of sitting board members at the agency had dwindled down to just two. Some, like former National MP Amy Adams, had opted not to seek reappointment at the end of their term. But others, like Wellington GP Jeff Lowe, left the board more than a year early.

The new commissioner’s challenge

In the months since last year’s election, the government has made a point of tightening its belt across the public sector. Despite this, Reti, at yesterday’s press conference, said Health NZ was heading for a $1.4bn deficit if things didn’t change. As Stuff’s Bridie Witton reported, the health minister claimed the situation at the agency had worsened in recent months, and Health NZ was now “overspending at the rate of approximately $130m a month.” But, questioned Rachel Thomas for The Post, has the agency been overspending or is it just underfunded? Either way, it illustrates the size of the challenge the new commissioner will face, especially given the tight fiscal environment the government has already forecast ahead of the 2025 budget. David Seymour said last week that work was already under way for next year, and it’s fair to assume yesterday’s announcement will have factored heavily into that – as will the recent (high cost) Pharmac boost unveiled at the start of the month. Politik’s Richard Harman, writing after budget day, predicted the next round of spending cuts could be deeper than what we’ve seen already. Perhaps this is just the beginning.

Against the backdrop of all of this has been growing concern over Health NZ’s ability to deliver on its core function: health. Before the weekend, as RNZ reported, the government was accused of shortchanging GPs, while The Press reported on staff shortages leading to patients being turned away. There were also disputed reports over a frontline hiring freeze. Luxon and Reti made it clear this week their concerns were strictly with Health NZ as an agency, but nevertheless, frontline services could feasibly suffer as a result of cost cutting measures.

How has Labour responded?

Considering the last government was blamed for the current mess, it’s worth hearing how Labour has responded. RNZ reported that former health minister Ayesha Verrall said the government’s claims were untrue. “A blowout in the financial year that they are responsible for is their responsibility,” she said. That’s part of the story. As Newsroom Pro’s Marc Daalder (paywalled) argued, both governments can fairly share some of the blame. Health NZ should have had proper financial monitoring systems in place and Labour should have made sure of this while in government. But, says Daalder, Health NZ was running a surplus when Labour was in charge and now it’s not. “It is critical for the government to begin to acknowledge when it has erred, rather than reflexively point the finger elsewhere, or it will rapidly lose the trust of the public that elected it,” he writes.

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The BulletinJuly 22, 2024

Breaking: Joe Biden leaves the presidential race. What happens now?

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‘It has been the greatest honour of my life to serve as your president.’ In today’s extract from The Bulletin by Stewart Sowman-Lund, an extraordinary decision by Joe Biden. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

In breaking news

US president Joe Biden has just ended his campaign for reelection, releasing a statement on Twitter confirming he has dropped out of the race. “It has been the greatest honour of my life to serve as your president. And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term.” The statement adds that Biden, who is currently recovering from Covid-19, will speak later in the week about his decision. “For now, let me express my deepest gratitude to all those who have worked so hard to see me reelected.”

In the statement, released shortly before 6am NZT, Biden acknowledged his vice president Kamala Harris – the only person name checked in his statement – but did not explicitly endorse her to be his replacement on the Democratic ticket. However,  in a subsequent statement, the president confirmed he was throwing his “full support” behind Harris. This is clearly not The Bulletin I was expecting to write when I got up this morning, and it is a developing story. Basically every media outlet in the world has a live blog with up to date information – take your pick.

A president under pressure

In many ways it’s not a huge surprise that Biden has decided to quit the race. The writing has been on the wall since a disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump last month. Nevertheless, four months out from the election, it is an extraordinary move for a sitting president. Earlier, RNZ’s stalwart political correspondent Simon Marks said that Biden becomes the first president since Lyndon B Johnson to not seek reelection after a first term, but the difference is that Biden had been effectively “hounded” out by his own party. That debate, reported NBC, led to a decline in popularity for the Democratic Party and Biden – 60% of Democrats reported they would prefer someone else as presidential candidate, and 80% expressed concern about Biden’s health. In the weeks since, a wave of Biden allies have called for the president to leave the race.

Perhaps the most influential, though it happened behind the scenes, former president Barack Obama. Far more publicly, in fact splashed across the New York Times, was a highly critical open letter from actor George Clooney. By this morning, more than 30 Democratic lawmakers had called for Biden to step aside.

Who will replace Biden?

As noted above, Biden’s initial statement was notable for the decision not to name vice president Kamala Harris as his intended successor – though he did eventually come out to back her. Nevertheless, whether that will be enough to secure Harris the Democratic nomination remains to be seen. This piece on CBS explains what you need to know about Harris, who has already been a presidential candidate in 2020 before dropping out to join the Biden ticket.

This 1News piece looks at how we ended up in this current situation, and what could happen next. A leadership contest could, as we have seen here in New Zealand, make things messier. Rallying behind one candidate may prove a strong path forward for the Democrats. This CNN report signals that the party could quickly fall in line behind the current vice president. Overseas media has in recent days been speculating who the strongest replacement for Biden would be. Other names being speculated, as the BBC reported, include California’s governor Gavin Newsom (who recently met with our own prime minister Christopher Luxon), former presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.

This piece from the Texas Tribunal looks at some of the logistical challenges that come from replacing a presidential candidate, noting that while election day isn’t for a few months, the timeline for confirming who is on the ballot is significantly shorter.

Meanwhile, in the Trump campaign

The recent assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump led some to claim the Republican had already won November’s election. Speaking to CNN, Trump this morning labelled Biden “the single worst president” in the history of the United States and suggested that Kamala Harris would be easier to defeat. The ABC has details of how the Trump campaign is preparing for a potential Harris campaign, reporting that new attack ads are already being prepared and the records of potential other candidates for the Democratic ticket are being dug through.

One thing is for certain: today may mark a major and unprecedented turning point in the race for the White House. But that race is far from over.