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An image created using AI and the prompt “a happy dog being prime minister of New Zealand in front of the Beehive in Wellington, New Zealand holding a New Zealand flag”
Image created using Bing Image Creator – a clearly fake, if not a beautiful imagined future

The BulletinMay 24, 2023

The era of AI political campaigning is here

An image created using AI and the prompt “a happy dog being prime minister of New Zealand in front of the Beehive in Wellington, New Zealand holding a New Zealand flag”
Image created using Bing Image Creator – a clearly fake, if not a beautiful imagined future
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It arrives not with a robotic roar, but with the leader of the National party being unsure whether his party is using AI while a spokesperson confirms they are, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

National using artificial intelligence to create attack ads 

As Stuff’s Andrea Vance writes, “It’s the wonky eyeball that gives it away. In the Instagram photograph, a woman stares out the window into a dark street.” Vance is referring to an image posted on the National party’s Instagram account attacking Labour’s “soft on crime” approach and it’s been generated using artificial intelligence (AI). Vance reports that in the last month, National has published at least four images generated by AI to its social media accounts with a spokesperson confirming they were using it as “an innovative way to drive our social media”. Yesterday, party leader Christopher Luxon was unclear about National’s use of AI in its attack ads saying, “No, not that I’m aware of,” when asked if the party was using it.

AI image and text generation now in the hands of everyone

On Monday, a fake image which CNN describes as bearing “all the hallmarks of being generated by artificial intelligence” purported to show an explosion near the Pentagon. It was shared by multiple “verified” Twitter accounts on Monday, leading to a brief dip in the stock market. It was fake. This is a confluence of problems. “Verified” on Twitter now means nothing more than someone paying for a “verified” account — it is no badge of authenticity. The capacity to create these kinds of images now lies in the hands of everyone. I used Bing Image Creator to create today’s feature image. It took me five seconds using the prompt: “a happy dog being prime minister of New Zealand in front of the Beehive in Wellington, New Zealand holding a New Zealand flag”. As you can see, it’s not the Beehive, nor the New Zealand flag and that suit fit is a travesty. I chose not to enter prompts that might bear a resemblance to reality for the sake of trust and truth. It’s just me imagining a beautiful future.

AI being explored by Electoral Review panel here

As this AP news piece highlights, AI experts can very quickly name a number of scenarios in which AI is used for the purposes of confusing voters, slandering a candidate or even inciting violence. The news cycle is awash with these stories and warnings. Two months ago, psychologist and AI commentator Paul Duignan said there was every reason to think AI would be used in the New Zealand election and so it has come to pass. It’s a topic being explored by the Government’s Independent Electoral Review panel. The first report from that review is not due until June. Far be it from me to suggest that once-in-a-generation review of electoral law be rushed, but to quote the Gershwins, some might suggest it’s time for them to “put on some speed”.

Should we be asking for disclosure from our political parties?

In the US, a bill was introduced at the beginning of the month that would require political groups or campaigns to disclose the use of content created by AI in political ads. Here, our educators and education officials are being proactive about developing guidelines and policies for how generative AI is being used in the education system. The Ministry of Education just published a set of guidelines. In the absence of any formal regulation of the use of AI in political campaigns, a set of cross-party guidelines or an agreement about disclosure might be a decent stop gap with the election only five months away. Discussing it in the context of US law and the 2024 US election, Matthew Ferraro, a cybersecurity lawyer, suggested it was a good way to go.

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Graph showing ups and downs of net migration figures since 2000 from Westpac economists
Westpac economists plot Stats NZ net migration data from 2000 and forecast the fastest rate of population growth New Zealand has seen in decades by the end of this year (Image: Westpac NZ’s latest economic overview, Tina Tiller)

The BulletinMay 23, 2023

Welcome to the immigration resurgence?

Graph showing ups and downs of net migration figures since 2000 from Westpac economists
Westpac economists plot Stats NZ net migration data from 2000 and forecast the fastest rate of population growth New Zealand has seen in decades by the end of this year (Image: Westpac NZ’s latest economic overview, Tina Tiller)
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Net migration figures have bounced back fast and are being cited as a key factor in tomorrow’s OCR decision but is it a sustained trend or a spike, asks Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.

Treasury predicts a drop-off after spike

In the last 18 months, we’ve had the immigration reset, the immigration rebalance, the immigration u-turn and now, what appears to be the immigration resurgence. It’s almost enough to warrant an Eras-like tour but instead of Taylor Swift trying to find her mark on stage, it’s forecasters, economists, policy-makers and politicians trying to establish a mid-term view on  exactly what might happen with net migration. Newsroom’s Jono Milne leans into the sense of befuddlement by asking “What the hell’s going on with migrant workers?” Milne points to the faster-than expected surge in net migration and the equally-as-fast fall Treasury is predicting. “The strange and short-lived spike in migrant workers has confounded the government and risks plunging the economy into a recession – just as Treasury had predicted we might avoid one,” he writes.

Is the spike really short-lived?

BusinessDesk’s Jem Traylen counters on Treasury’s predictions (paywalled) by noting that the figures used in the budget estimate of net migration are already out of date. As Traylen notes, the Treasury forecast “is the key economic variable underpinning the rest of their economic outlook, as well as gauging the demand for housing and public services.” Is the spike we’ve seen due to pent-up demand after border closures or will “the tight labour market mean demand for migrant labour is likely to be sustained at a much higher level for a lot longer?” Peter Wilson, one of the experts advising the Productivity Commission’s inquiry on immigration settings, told Traylen the last time migration crashed like Treasury is expecting it to in the next couple of months, is because we closed the border.

Disturbance in the force

Westpac economists are predicting that the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) will need to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to as high as 6%. The RBNZ makes its next OCR announcement tomorrow. While acknowledging a lot of uncertainty, the economists say the surge in migration “has the potential to disturb the grand plan” the Reserve Bank has for reining in inflation. Westpac economists are forecasting a net inflow of 100,000 people over 2023, adding almost 2% to New Zealand’s population. That would be the fastest rate of population growth New Zealand has seen in decades.

Hail to the bus drivers

In a real world example of the see-sawing on immigration policy, and in news that will give commuters cause to cheer, 559 new bus drivers have been recruited and a return to full service is in sight. The government further loosened immigration settings in December, essentially obliterating any remnants of the great immigration reset or rebalance, and created a temporary residence pathway for bus and truck drivers. Bus drivers from the Philippines, India and Fiji have filled vacancies. Great for commuters and business, but the eternal question about what the population of this country should be and how we ensure growth is accounted for, remains unsettled. Paul Spoonley is calling for a government population statement, writing that “we need to know what population growth rates are sustainable and make sense alongside labour market supply needs, infrastructural provision and equity for New Zealand communities, immigrant or host.” Finally, and I think I can get away with saying this is tangentially related, the ratio of sheep to people in New Zealand has fallen below five to one for the first time since the 1850s according to Stats NZ’s Agricultural Production Census for 2022.