The US Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump’s import tariffs were unlawful. Is the ruling likely to make life any easier for exporters here?
Late last week, the US president’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which were enacted in April 2025 using emergency powers, were struck down by the Supreme Court. But Donald Trump quickly found another law to use to impose a 10% tax on imported goods from almost every country, and then swiftly raised it to 15%.
As countries scrambled to figure out what this meant for trade deals negotiated in the wake of the Liberation Day tariffs, Trump threatened to raise tariffs even further. “Any Country that wants to ‘play games’ with the ridiculous supreme court decision, especially those that have ‘Ripped Off’ the U.S.A. for years, and even decades, will be met with a much higher Tariff [sic]” he wrote on media platform Truth Social yesterday.
The uncertainty created by Trump’s unpredictability has major impacts on almost every layer of the global economy, and New Zealand is no exception. With the US one of our biggest export markets, how will the latest round of tariffs affect exporters here? Here’s what you need to know.
What do we actually export to the US, and how badly hit were businesses by the last round of tariffs?
The US is the third biggest of New Zealand’s trade partners, worth $16bn in the year to April 2025, and nearly tied with second-biggest export market Australia. Meat and dairy are particularly significant exports, making up 24% and 16% of trade volume respectively.
New Zealand exporters don’t actually pay Trump’s tariffs – that’s the importer’s role. US Customs sends a tariff bill to the American business bringing the goods into the country, which it must pay before they can enter. But exporters can be pressured to absorb some of the cost by lowering their export price.
About 70% of New Zealand goods exported to the US were affected by the 15% tariff, but trade volume hasn’t significantly changed since they came into effect in April 2025. “Many exporters we have spoken to since last April have been able to maintain a presence in the US, commenting that the importer and buyer have been able to absorb most, if not all, of the added tariff costs,” said Joshua Tan, executive director of Export NZ.
For some months of 2025, trade with the US actually increased, despite the tariffs. However, the shifting trading regimes makes the United States harder to commit to, especially for smaller businesses; many pulled out of the market directly after the April tariffs came in. Another hassle is working out exactly how tariffs apply to their goods. The metal components of goods have been subject to a 50% tariff, for example, with a 15% tariff on the non-metal parts. Tariffs can change quickly too: the 15% tariff was lifted for many agricultural goods, including beef, kiwifruit and avocados, in November, with the Trump administration citing “domestic demand and limited US production”, said Tan. “This came as a relief to exporters in these sectors.”
What does the Supreme Court decision mean for New Zealand exporters?
One possible implication of the Supreme Court decision is that American importers get a refund of the tariffs they have paid – US Customs has received over $130bn since the tariffs were introduced last year. “Swift refunds of the impermissible tariffs will be meaningful for the more than 200,000 small business importers in this country and will help support stronger economic growth this year,” said the US Chamber of Commerce, one of many voices in and outside of the US calling for refunds.
But it’s likely to be a long way off. In a newsletter of advice to businesses, Export NZ wrote: “The Supreme Court decision did not directly address the issue of refunds, so the subject is likely to drag on through the US Court of International Trade for several years, without any refunds paid until a final, unappealable ruling. It’s highly unlikely that any refunds will trickle through to New Zealand exporters, but they could help US businesses continue to operate.”
What is the New Zealand government doing about this?
Todd McClay said the New Zealand government continued to advocate for New Zealand exporters. “Our embassy in Washington will engage with their counterparts to get more information so we can continue to work with exporters,” he said in a statement.
Exporters would like to see the government continue to advocate “for a rules-based order”, said Tan. “It’s important that New Zealand’s representatives continue to engage with US counterparts, communicate our dissatisfaction with tariffs, but look for opportunities to work with the US.”
Where is business going, if not to the US?
In an interview with the Herald on Monday, trade minister Todd McClay said that “exporters have opportunities elsewhere”. “Our trade has not gone down, we are exporting more now with greater value.”
China and Australia remain Aotearoa’s largest trade partners. While the US remains in the top 10 destinations for the apple and pear market, it has been steadily declining. Parts of Asia, like Vietnam, are now top destinations for New Zealand fruit.
Tan said that New Zealand’s free trade agreements are a boon to exporters. “We have a free trade agreement with most of our major markets – the exception being the USA. That opens up a lot of options for exporters looking to explore new opportunities,” he said. New Zealand’s free trade agreements include deals with China, the UK, the European Union and Australia. A deal with India was signed at the end of last year.
McClay said the Supreme Court decision did not mean the path ahead would be easier for exporters. “Uncertainty around US tariff policy is likely to remain for an extended period of time.”
